Typhoon Hunter

Three weeks ago I made a successful intercept of the eyewall of typhoon Sepat with Geoff Mackley as it made landfall on central Taiwan. I put together two films which highlight how ferocious conditions are in the eyewall of a typhoon and how the dangers continue long after the wind has died down. The floods in part 2 are the most spectacular event I've ever witnessed: Part 1 - Part 2 -

Phillipines about to get an absolute hammering, gonna be serious trouble there. TY Cimaron has absolutely exploded overnight, dropped 65HPA in 24 hours, it's now at 910HPA. Forecast to make landfall with winds up to 130kts (JTWC forecast.) Here's the latest vis satellite image...it is absolutely stunning:

Here's a some photo's I took on 1st October as typhoon Xangsane made landfall and of the aftermath in Vietnam: This one was taken at about 0830 as the eyewall was passing over my location: Taken on 2nd October - evidence of big storm surge Finally storge surge remnants and debris about 6 hours after landfall

I've just finished editing a 5 minute video highlighting Xangsane at her worst. I've uploaded it to Youtube and it can be found at the link below. Hope you enjoy it:

Thanks for the messages guys. Hoi An seems to be ok, but I haven't seen the Old Town yet so that could be hit worse. Went up the road to Danang today and took some pics: 2 3 4 And finally, why you should never go out and film in extreme winds in area with poor infrastructure, the air is filled with this stuff:

I'm back online temporarily...safe and sound. Storm made landfall about 30hrs ago. Here are some pics from the eyewall, it was mayhem! 2 3 4

Hi guys. I'm in position!!! Got myself a 4th floor room in a sturdy, concrete constructed hotel in Hoi An (about 15.7 degrees north) with internet! The weather is pretty benign at the moment but judging by latest sat image there is serious mayhem to come. Here's latest pic from JTWC: There are many tourists here who have no clue of what is about to happen. However I just passed local high school and it's crammed with people who've been evacuated from the coast. JTWC going for landfall winds of 105kts. Will be able to update here as long as the power lasts!

Hello! Just checked the latest updates. Latest JTWC track has Xangsane peaking at 125kts before making landfall with winds of around 115kts. However I think JTWC track will be adjusted northward in the next update. They have not taken into account a northward jog which both the Taiwanese and JMA have. Consequently Taiwanese and JMA (85kts) are going for direct hit in Danang area. Current landfall times as as follows: JTWC 6am local, CWB 8am local, JMA 1pm local. What is great at the moment is they all seems to be going for daylight landfall on Sunday, couldn't be better. I've just read a report that Danang city may be evacuated, this could pose problems getting there and affect my wallet...may have to bribe my way through checkpoints! Cheers, James.

Thanks Rusty, I'm just praying that my flight tomorrow from Hanoi to Hue isn't cancelled....from latest update I should be ok. This time in 24hrs I'll be in Vietnam. From now on I'll be using JTWC updates since they are most useful for getting to the best place. The latest update is insane, as it stands now they reckon it'll have winds of 120kts gusting to 145kts just before landfall. This will devestate the region and I hope the Vietnamese government is doing all it can to protect the most vulnerable people (poor coastal dwellers.) Here's the latest tracking chart from JTWC: I'll post next update after the 06z comes out.

Holy crap...the latest JTWC update is insane. It's bound to change but as it stands it couldn't be better for me (except it's at night time). A direct hit on Hue with winds of 115kts gusting to 140kts...bad news for Hue though. Here's the latest tracking chart from JTWC:

Here's an article regarding the Phillipines. The last paragraph shows the Vietnamese are starting to make preparations: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/28092006/323/typh...es-11-dead.html

I have made it to Bangkok and managed to escape the mayhem of the new airport...it is its first day of fully operating! I've managed to get my passport to the visa service, will be ready tomorrow at 4pm. And I've spent a small fortune on plane tickets to Hue in central Vietnam...I arrive on Saturday 0630z, should just arrive in time. A few more hurdles cleared! Xangsane has just about crossed the Phillipines and is entering the South China Sea. JMA currently have winds at 65kts and JTWC at 105kts. Forecast to re-intensify in the SCS. Here's the latest JTWC chart, it show Da Nang (a bout 25 miles south of Hue) getting a direct hit: More updates to come later!

That was odd Peter. JTWC still have Xangsane charging towards Manila with 120kts winds! It's 5.10am here and the latest update (18z) means chase still on. JTWC track Xangsane straight into my ideal target zone with 115kt gusting to 140kt winds. So I'll be heading to the airport in 25 minutes. Let's hope the flight to Bangkok isn't full.

Well Xangsane must be absolutely pummeling the Phillipines at the moment. JMA have winds at 85kts and JTWC have them at 125kts!! Track still has Xangsane heading towards Vietnam as a strong typhoon. Awaiting the 18z update with interest. Here's latest satellite from JTWC:

Mods I hope you don't mind this in the general forum, the Hurricane Forum is very quiet and thought this might generate a bit more interest here! Typhoon Xangsane has done the remarkable and bombed into a very very strong typhoon in the space of 12hrs. It's currrently making landfall on the east coast of the Phillipines with sustainded 1 min winds of 115kts (JTWC) and 10 min winds of 90kts. 12 hours ago the Phillipines were expecting a tropical storm to make landfall now they have to deal with a monster! It's obviously far too late to get to the Phillipines, however Xangsane is currently forecast to re-strengthen in the South China Sea and head towards Vietnam. The latest JTWC track (very useful for intercepting storms) has Xangsane making landfall in central Vietnam with 115kt sustained winds. Therefore I'm going to try to intercept it. However I have many hurdles to face....first of all the 18z (becomes available at 4.30am my time) update. If this still shows a similar picture I'll head to Shanghai airport and try and get on the first plane to Bangkok provided it's not full. Then I have to get an express visa for Vietnam (provided what the people on the phone in Thailand told me is correct!) Then I'll book my tickets to Vietnam and try and get into the best position!! This is of course assuming all the while the storm is still worth intercepting! I'll post as many updates as I can here. Here's the latest JTWC tracking chart: And here's the latest sat image of Xangsane making landfall in Phillipines:

Wow....Xangsane has exploded and become a typhoon before making landfall on the Phillipines. JMA have winds at 70kts, here's their latest advisory: Issued at 03:00 UTC 27 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 270300UTC 12.7N 125.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 280300UTC 14.0N 122.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 290000UTC 14.9N 119.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 300000UTC 15.6N 115.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT The latest JTWC tracking chart has Xangsane crossing the Phillipines and strengthening into a howler in the South China Sea. Here's their latest chart: And here's the latest vis satellite, courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage. As you can see the eye is very clear!

Have fun mate...be sure to post some pics!!

A new tropical storm has formed in the NW Pacific off the coast of the Phillipines. This is T0615 and has been assigned the name Xangsane (no idea how to pronounce that - I think Laos may have provided it.) Here's the latest JMA advisory: T0615 (XANGSANE) Issued at 03:00 UTC 26 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 11.9N 127.3E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 13.2N 125.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 280000UTC 14.4N 124.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT Looking quite tidy on latest vis saetllite (courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage): The latest ECMWF chart has this exploding once it enters the South China Sea. I'll very very interested to see what happens.

A TD has formed just to the east of the Phillipines and if the latest ECMWF run pans out there will be a major typhoon in the South China Sea later this week. I'll post more updates as the situation developes.

Look forward to seeing some pictures of chaos Mathew! Hope it's a good season for you.

Holy crap, JMA have Yagi up to 110kts which is exceptionaly strong for them. Here's their latest: Issued at 21:00 UTC 21 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 23.2N 144.2E GOOD MOVE NW 16KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 110KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 27.6N 141.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 231800UTC 31.6N 143.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 241800UTC 36.6N 149.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT

Yagi has now been classed as a Super typhoon by JTWC and is still forecast to intensify. Iwo Jima is standing in her way and looks to get a direct hit with winds of 140kts gusting to 170kts. Here's the latest JTWC tracking chart: Here's the latest sat image courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage:

Typhoon Yagi has been intensifying steadily and is now very powerful. JMA have it at 90kts and JTWC at 115kts. Here's the latest JMA advisory: Issued at 06:00 UTC 20 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 200600UTC 19.6N 154.1E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 210600UTC 20.0N 147.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 220600UTC 23.2N 142.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 230600UTC 27.6N 140.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT The latest satellite image is beautiful, courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page:

Just about to head out the door so no time for a long post. Just a quick one to say Yagi is undergoing rapid intensification and JMA have her up to 85kts within 24hrs. The last update had her at 65kts. Will post longer update later this afternoon.

Yagi has now been upgraded to a typhoon. Here's the latest JMA advisory and track: Issued at 03:00 UTC 19 Sep 2006 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 20.1N 158.8E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 20.1N 155.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 210000UTC 20.4N 149.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 220000UTC 24.0N 143.2E 270NM 70% MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT Even though Yagi's just been upgraded the eye is clearly visible on latest sat image. (Courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage.)