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VillagePlank last won the day on September 29 2013

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    Rochester, Kent

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  1. Can't see it on the radar, but there's a monster to my south and west (Maistone/West Malling) EDIT: Now giving good thunder!
  2. It does look grim for us in Kent, today, I must admit. Still, 06z will give better guidance.
  3. Best hope for SE is very strong surface heating to 15z so when all the convective inhibition disappears for a couple hours storms can form rapidly. If it's not done by 18z, then homegrown storm chances are virtually nil, and we're off to the French, cap-in-hand (pun intended) for whatever we can get.
  4. From the GFS 00z. Window of opportunity exists for storms for Kent/East Sussex between 15z and 18z, conveniently during the time of most insolation. Not a great opportunity, but an opportunity nevertheless. Will there be enough time for storms to form? It's still only a moderately convective environment, no DLS, slack winds, and no convergence zone. Three hours later the opportunity is lost: Best hope, according to GFS, for far SE (Kent/East Sussex) is relying on our good friends, the French, to send something our way, later on this evening: Good luck all !!
  5. Yes, relying on French imports is probably the best bet for Kent/East Sussex. We only need 149,440,000 calories for Kent alone, to break the cap of just 22 j/kg. That's the equivalent of 649,739 pints of Stella.
  6. Long time no see. According to GFS 0.25 6z, the action appears in the SE corner, apparently from nowhere, from 15z onwards. It seems there's a window where the cap (CIN=0) is low or is not present. I have to say, however, it's a small window, and with no real dewpoint depression, and indeed with increasing moisture all the way up to 800hPa, there may only be time for elevated clouds sufficient for (lots of) rain. Surface heating looks right on the lower side of the margin for surface convection to kick off. As always, wait and see, but probably best to wait until tomorrow if you're in the SE - unless the luck is in, of course!
  7. Dangerous times. I hope that open and back door dialogue is ongoing between the US and China. The most dangerous scenario is if the US decides to preemptively strike North Korea because it's put a long-range missile on some launching device and the US is unsure of it's payload; that seems the most likely scenario for the US strike. However, they couldn't knock out the 10k or so artillery (which are capable of delivering 500,000 rounds/hr against South Korea) without the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Recall, current 'modern' strategy is to remove any threat, then engage in the mission at hand. If North Korea attacked first, then the US could deploy based on defence and could unwind it's, frankly pathetic, rhetoric through the UN; ie North Korea gets flattened whilst China and Russia stand by as neutrals: regime change would certainly be the mission at hand, and, possibly, a behind the scenes agreement with China that it could annex North Korea once it's all finished (which saves the indebted West the rebuilding costs) with a pan-national agreement to spread construction contracts. China has no appetite for conflict against the West. It's rather like the bank of whom you've got your mortgage with burning your house down because you ran over the corporate cat; but, I should think, they would certainly seek to capitalise and save face in the event of conflict from either side.
  8. Most of it seems to have passed to my north, now. Looking like it's still going strong, well worth it if you are downwind of me
  9. Absolutely amazing lightning and thunder here in Rochester. Most of it CC but some CGs mixed in.
  10. It's forecast to connect with the surface. Most of the time it's been elevated
  11. Constant low rumble and very frequent lightning to my entire southern vista, even to my SE. I reckon about 30 minutes away before it wakes the kids.
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