robmarks

I suspect they have inches and cm muddled!

I thought we were looking at the real cold air not arriving until Wednesday afternoon though. Cooler on Tuesday is a start.

That's why the forecast for Sunday/Monday really doesn't matter too much. Trends...

It looked like parts of Brighton were gritted first thing this morning. Madness.

Yes 2010 was the last time. I will be making the journey home between Portslade and Eastbourne this evening via the A27. This takes me up over the downs so should start to get an idea of how things are looking as move away from the coast and higher briefly.

Without doubt a nowcast situation. I've always doubted a significant snow event from this and the models are behaving the way they always do in this sort of situation. I suspect snow will be confined to upland areas across the South East, with some local exceptions based on precip intensity. And the model runs I've woken to this morning are very nice if you like the cold.

Things starting to fire over North West France right now. This could be round 2.

Pleased to say confirmed that this is not the case, although the centre has been closed and evacuated.

Reports now coming in that the roof on a childens adventure play centre in Eastbourne has possibly collapsed as a result of heavy rain. Worrying... but hopefully not as bad as it sounds. I'm not joking when I say that there has been some really serious rainfall in Sussex so far today. I suspect we're talking 3-5 inches in 12-hours, before anything that comes this afternoon.

Some parts already do have serious flooding problems. I think there is a bit of an *if* on storms later though. I'm not so sure about that.

All flying displays cancelled today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-33907476 Yep.

And at last... the rain has finally stopped and rumble becoming more distant. Sky slowly brightening. All eyes to Northern France then.

Almost 9-hours of continuous thunder and lightning now on the Sussex coast. Incredible.

What incredible weather on the Sussex coast. Thunder and lightning almost continuously since 3am this morning (yes it's still going right now) with just a brief break between say 6am and 7.30am. Huge rainfall totals without a doubt. I suspect we're approaching (or possibly even exceeding) 75mm in a 12-hour period. Rain is persistent and heavy, often utterly torrential. Surface water flooding is almost a certainty in places - indeed latest travel news confirms numerous instances of flooded roads, many of them major A-roads. It now looks like a quiet period later, before further storms later this afternoon and then possibly again tomorrow.

Latest Meto precip forecast is starting to show more action for the SE corner. Could the UKMO be falling into line with GFS, albeit very late?

Interesting and brief comment to chuck into the mix... Early this morning Meto forecast of precip for my area was 5%. Up to 40% chance of precip now. This suggests a change in the Meto and I think the core area to be will between Eastbourne and Bournemouth if you're on the South Coast. Then move northwards. Could be an interesting an active night. Watch AND listen carefully to the forecasts. They're not saying what some people think!

It's looking more promising now. Things starting to kick off nicely over Northern France (see radar animations for last couple of hours) and feeling increasingly close now in Brighton. 5pm (earliest) - 10pm looks to be the time across SE.

You might be wrong. Turned much more humid and brighter (bordering on sunny) back in Brighton.

But watch what happened from 1245 onwards. As it approached the coast it just exploded.

Wow... this Brighton shower is torrential. Rain rate of over 25mm/hour at present. Just a roar outside.

But look at that way that shower developed. Nothing an hour ago - pretty heavy and growing right now. The point, I suppose, is that the ingredients are very much there!

A potent shower has just sprung up from near nowhere in Brighton. Tipping it down right now. EDIT - Also gone very dark. Just goes to show that the potential is very much there

Meto warnings updated now. Slight downgrade by the looks of things.

Signs of a real clearance in the skies here on the South coast now. Just off shore are blue skies and they're moving this way, which should help with temperatures. Regarding the latest GFS etc... I'm not remotely worried. We're talking showers here, albeit some are going to be pretty special. The models just can't handle this sort of thing all that well. Conditions look favourable across much of Southern England for a thundery late afternoon/early evening, but as always it'll be hit and miss. My thoughts on where... Brighton westwards towards the IoW for the best storms, with torrential rain being the big story further West. My thinking is to head 20-30 miles in land from the coast in this area and be there asap (earliest I can manage is closer to 8pm unfortunately but even that should be sufficient). Winchester, for example, might be a good location or perhaps Redhill. I see no need for any doom and gloom at present...