thestixx

It's an absoluteley incredible chart! we're talking about roads melting, rail tracks buckling! I don't beleive it will verify though until it's been plastered on the Express fromt page.

Just in time for Glastonbury. Therefore it's bound to go tits up.

Thanks for putting this together. It makes grim reading for the rest of summer!

The new update debuts on tonight's 12z. Fingers crossed it continues the positive trends....

Spain & France taking a right battering too! At least we're not alone.

There's been lots of high pressure around us this year, Azores, Scandinavian, Euro.... We'll hit the jackpot at some point.

Thanks for your in depth analysis Tamara, one thing always comes to mind though, see your paragraph here: " The VP200 tropical convection anomalies clearly show up the suppression phase over the Pacific and active phase in the Indian Ocean that is responsible for the step up in trade winds which is creating the La Nina-esque type pattern downstream to the Atlantic and European sector in the coming period - " Pacific conditions are often quoted/attributed to being factors in the conditions here, but in turn, don't the conditions here affect what's happening there, like El Nino causing drought in Australia when causing the opposite in South America?

Wow! Looking like a proper spell of settled anticyclonic weather is on its way, that low pressure west of Biscay would pump some seriously warm air our way! I bloody love synoptics like this in June!

I remember the World Cup in Germany 2006, the spring had seen terrible weather and on June 1st...boom... A huge anticyclone plonked itself over Europe and I spent a month travelling round Germany under azure blue skies and blazing sun. It's looking like summer '19 will start with a similar aplomb (albeit an Azores high initially) hope we get a similar summer to that. Wasn't July '06 an absolute steamer too?

BBC county file weather for the week bullish about a wet and windy weekend.

Camping in Kettlewell with the kids will be much more enjoyable if these charts verify.

Just to reiterate my post. Not trying to point score whatsoever, but as I alluded to here, taking each model run as gospel is fruitless. @Tamara's detailed analysis throughout has backed a more settled outlook and without sticking her nose out, was confident there wouldn't be a breakdown as was modelled last week. It's often said in here that you should probably only look at the ops a couple of times a week and I'm firmly from that camp. This is a truly vintage summer and long may it continue.... It could easily be a record breaker for max temps, especially if the scandi/Azores link up sufficiently with a low to our SW.... Heat pump city, and there's a LOT of hear building down there

Taking the outlook on a weekly basis, not run to run... We're absolutely locked in to the best period of anticyclonic weather I can remember in years. There's absolutely no way this settled weather is breaking down this month. Folks on here are literally looking ten days away for some huge trough to sit over us. Ain't gonna happen imo. Take a break from the models guys. This year is a vintage!

Paul Hudson @paultheweatherman on Yorkshire weather said "It's high pressure till mid month, and probably all the way through July"

My mate's a farmer in near York and getting very worried for his crops. He's desperate for rain. An interlude of a few days wet stuff would please everyone I reckon, as long as the Azores keeps nosing in... Looks like that pattern is the form horse, for now.....

I'm currently in Tenerife and here in Adeje it's been warm & humid all week but cloudy one day, sunny the next. The locals have been saying it's been very strange weather for the last 6 weeks..... Rioja Blanco &€3 a bottle has been a pleasure though....

Summer charts like these are an absolute joy to view. I've lurked on here since '06; my appetite for anticyclonic summer weather was whetted in '03 when high pressure was so stubborn to shift... This current modelling appears to be showing what could be a vintage summer. Hoorah!

Your post was clearly reliant on one op run. I was asking about the longer term evolution. X

This current pattern appears deadset on reloading high pressure from the Azores. To those far more technical in their knowledge than I, how do you see this current set up breaking down? Talk of the MJO and tropical forcing etc... Is the recent and current weather a direct influence from that? In previous years, when the Azores and Scandinavian highs connect, we've had a toppler low diving over the UK that then becomes trapped between highs and leaving us in days even weeks of being stuck in a trough. This year seems so different, the jet seemingly loving it's trip way up to the north, almost so much It's going to be fascinating seeing how it all breaks down. Perhaps I'm a pessimist and can't imagine the prospect of a long anticyclonic dominated summer, but just maybe this year's shaping up to be just that!

I totally agree, I've lurked on here for years and it's this time of year that we seem to be stuck in a rut, the Azores tantalising close at 6/7 days out but a trough parked over us or an active jet bringing low after low off the Atlantic. The jet seems to be enjoying itself way up North this year.... Long may it continue. Regardless of the IMBY weather conditions day to day, I'm loving the warm and sun potential each day brings, and is continuing to do so for the foreseeable...

It's the stuff of dreams for an avid warm sunny summer lover. To think most years a small ridge of HP here and there is a treat out in FI.... Long may it continue

Absolutely dream charts as a summer lover. Would you say this current Azores/Scandinavian high link up pattern is reminiscent of (dare I say it) '76?

GFS 0z shows the Azores swiftly moving in to replace the scani high..... Wouldn't it be lovely to see this pattern keep repeating for say, 6 months ?.....How I dream of a long, dry summer like '03 again.

Not snowed in Kirklees, Bd19 all afternoon. Been cloudy though.