[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

My eyes are drawn to the chances of snow midlands North Saturday into Sunday where any elevation up the spine, but not exclusively, of the country could get a decent fall and possibly Monday.

If the cold gets shifted so be it.

It will return regularly from the back ground signals being throw up this winter.

Now then, I love in Kirkheaton so only down the road from you. Do you know what elevation above sea level you are?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Gfs not backing and on this run is doubling down at day 7 and says bring it on ECM

This lobster shape was in the models last year too? 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Round 1 of notable inclement weather during this weekend and round two of another notable period of weather next week at some point. 

Outdoor wedding party on Saturday looking like it might need shifting indoors...

[Summer 2023 chat]

I'm having an outdoor event in Huddersfield this Saturday, what are the best rainfall charts to look at?  It's not looking great

[Summer 2023 chat]

So I'm hosting an outdoor festival kinda party on Saturday to celebrate my marriage earlier in the year. Stage, sound system, straw bales, bunting! What a nightmare July this has turned out to be!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

I live in Portugal, so at face value should be ambivalent about the work in progress of a UK summer that (like everywhere else in the NH) is barely half way through. But scrutiny based on 10 to 15 days of the middle third of July does not change a whole seasonal perspective half way through that season and apparently override the known outcome that preceded it for a whole first month of summer (which broke national UK records).

The actual  "LRF" under discussion is not even the first 20 days of July. It is based, as stated above, on expectations for the middle to latter third of the month. Which is not in the true sense even an LRF at all.....

This quoted post also ignores the fact that the first 10 days of July blended out overall in itself is still very close to the suggested seasonal anomaly and that which the diagnostic elements towards framing the summer as a whole were based on. Even taking into account many, including my humble self, overlooking the depth of the retrograde low angular momentum period which now dominates that middle to latter part of July.

Notwithstanding that, the seasonal diagnostic  (framing a true LRF & not an intra monthly interlude within that season as a whole) is equally pertinent still with a whole month of summer to go which has been discussed in detail for all that could, and very well might entail,.Unless doubt on that is also already being made- subject to the (apparent) absolutes of face value numerical modelling.

Contributions to a voluntary forum by a mix of amateur, professional & simply weather pattern studiers like myself are not paid for. Yet, and speaking more generally outside the response to the quoted post, some of the commentary on this thread acts under a microscope that reacts emotionally to numerical model output and does not attempt to listen to, or understand the complexities behind the diagnostics that drive the weather patterns. No-one owes anyone else anything on here - especially as many of those who criticise the most offer little themselves in terms of attempted insight.

As such, and with so much else of more importance to do in the real world, it is, frankly, quite reasonable to wonder if there is any point in taking spare time out to bother.

 

 

 

I value your input immensely along with several other users of this forum. Thanks for taking the time post.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I think with the recent catastrophic failure of the long range predictions for July being high pressure based we can write off any further attempts from the models come later July or even August for anything resembling accurate.

Hang on, we're not even in July, therefore any predictions for July could still happen (give or take 5 or 7 days into the month)

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

16 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wanted to start with the verification on this, 

very impressive performing again from the CFS

Hey MWB hopefully you don't see this as me having a go that really isn't in my nature at all just like to be as helpful as I can also might be useful for any newer members attempting to work those charts out

Those green lines will always be in the same orientation pretty much (think global circulations though it's often not that straightforward when deciphering Weather setups)

Most important with those is to focus beneath the green lines as the reds purples and blues are the important indicators of actual lows + troughs / ridges + high pressures, I took the chart you provided and done some editing which should make it easy to understand 

Further confirmation of the above and some further info on the patterns 

Excellent vid this and a point I've spoke about on numerous occasions and I'll discuss again in a min

If we concentrate on the developing setup over the U.S and Canada we have another block unfolding (remember this has been consistent throughout May and already into June hence record amounts of wildfires across Canada) 

'Omega Block' Weather Pattern To Dominate US | Weather.com

WEATHER.COM

---

Blocking weather patterns have dominated the U.S. since the start of May, including a new omega block this week. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

We have a high stretching from Mexico up through Texas (this is already giving record heat and that will continue) the same high connects to the developing block over northern US and approaching Canada. These NOAA charts can go hand in hand with the chart MWB posted

Quite a concerning situation with a large swathe of the Great Lakes and other Northern states are at record dry levels beating anything seen in upwards of 130 years 

Eerily similar to what we've had through May once again the block could be at record intensity for this time of year 

I'm getting increasingly concerned with the potential for severe weather in the UK Tomorrow & Monday

Tieing into my discussions in my previous post regarding MJO phases 2+3

As an area of low pressure develops within the UK this will pose a number of severe weather potential.

Any CG lightning has much heightened severity as with these levels of fire danger that will mean wildfires can be sparked off very easily 

My highest concern is with incredibly high PWAT levels a big flash flood threat will be present especially as the low properly deepens around Northeastern England into East Scotland (IMBY) 

Beyond this we have another event showing the interconnected nature I often talk about as similar to a post I done recently another surge of wildfire smoke from Canada moves across us which could be worth noting for those that deal with breathing related conditions.. might be good to have a mask at hand or limit outdoor activities a bit 

Any haziness to the sky will be explained with that.

More insightful discussions around twitter again connects to my own theories I've been posting with regards to stratospheric goings on and a general abnormality to how retrogressive the atmosphere has continued being since at least May. We've still got a huge quantity of water vapour following Hunga Tongas eruption, obviously Ninò arriving after those mega hot SST's were sat effectively dormant for 3 years, I still think the strat events from winter have had a part in the wacky global patterns too, I'll go further on that shortly.

So yes further evidence of the global climate overall being as far away from any degree of normality

Record cyclone Biparjoy somehow improved in structure AFTER landfall which anyone who is familiar with cyclones + hurricanes knows that really shouldn't happen at that stage 

Oh yeah it's snowing in Siberia 

Yeah it really is week 3 of JUNE 

This is the longest post I've ever done I think really appreciated if you are still reading ha

The tropical wave I discussed in my last post has now advanced to 92L with high odds to become tropical storm Bret within a few days and first signals it *might have another tropical wave following closely behind 

 

Absolutely top drawer reading once again. Lots of new/interesting weather geeks to follow on Twitter from this too. I wonder if the apparant reloading of the pattern over the US will reload ours too?!.. thanks for the post

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

26 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Indeed with a rare pattern unfolding across Dixie Alley normally we'd expect that zone being active in April, furthest east this shape of severe weather during summer months

You'll remember I expected similarities to 2015 to continue in regards to El Ninò and plume patterns for the UK 

Also I was discussing the MDR temperatures and conversation surrounding Atlantic shear, clearly the Atlantic continuing to behave quite abnormally in that area with the concentration of developing systems looking likely to develop from tropical waves emerging from Africa which again are apparently appearing earlier than usual probably linking with the highest ever MDR temperatures.

What about the MJO, Since my previous MJO Post on May 31st 

Didn't half get a sprint on progress from phase 8 on 3rd June >> Phase 4 today isn't too common getting through 4 phases within a 2 week window.

Also might have a slower exit from phase 4 

What setup do I expect after the fast transition we've had?

Nice level of similarities in a trend of low pressure around / in the UK associated to phases 2+3. I'm interested particularly with phase 4 especially given the signal with this persisting longer than previous phases, here's the CFS weekly & GEM ensemble mean which if you put next to the last composite above is a fantastic comparison and ties to the setups I've been speaking about for a good amount of time aka atlantic troughing + high sets up further east ... looming plume-age

Still very intriguing behaviour in both the stratosphere & troposphere

 

Thanks for taking the time to collate all this and post it, it's fascinating reading

[Glastonbury festival 2023]

20 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Who is on this year? I have lost touch with it all. I'm still living in the punk era !  Anarchy !

It's my 14th Glasto since 1995. My first since 2013... I'm looking forward to seeing

 

InBedBy9 

Too Old for this I need to control my language

Young Kuntz

How much?

Pills Thrills & Back Aches

etc etc 

[Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Not far from doing something to my south.

 

I can see the storm over the Pennines. I can hear the distant rumblings, see the lightning, I can even smell the Ozone!  Just missed us unfortunately it looks brutal too. 

[Summer 2023 chat]

I'm at least 20 miles away from the storm  in East Manchester and I can hear the rumblings from here!!! Gutted to miss out again. It sounds biblical!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One eps run but all 3 clusters have an upper trough of sorts across the U.K. end week 2 

yetserday’s 12z suite was similar with a slightly more varied timing 

so we’re likely not looking at endless high heights through June - the daily ec46 now allows us to see how week 3 is seen on the mean. Yesterday’s run did away with any anomalies close to the U.K. end June - previous runs had a high anom somewhere nearby or across us.  The week 19/26 June remains with a low anom to our wsw which will likely mean a plume at some point 

Fascinating times. I'm at Glasto between those dates and I guess the SW is likely to be the most susceptible to any thundery incursions. I was there on June 24th 2005 when the mother of storms hit in the morning after a scorching 30C the previous day. The place got an absolute soaking and the lighting stuck the BBC outside broadcast generator. 

BBC NEWS | Entertainment | Soaked Glastonbury gets under way

NEWS.BBC.CO.UK

Hopefully the ATR can stay robust and keep up dry (and toasty by night)

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO  168 

Gosh, you look at a chart like that after such a prolonged settled spell and wonder if this summer could be a vintage

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m getting the impression over the last few suites of runs that the models are gradually shifting in the 10 day timeframe, from favouring retrogression in the direction of Greenland to the high remaining in situ or moving east.  If we allow for some residual bias and reluctance to fully go with the signal, the eventual T240 outcome could be a little further east.  The GEM looks to be middle ground tonight with the GFS having the high centred slightly west, the ECM slightly east:

Looking at the jet stream, clearer to see on the GEM:

The split seems to have real longevity and that southern arm does not look like shifting.  Things look like they are set to warm up, the question is will any thundery rain come up from the south, and if so, when?  We could be waiting a while longer, I think.

Is there a reason for such a strong double jet? Usually in summer there's just one? And if it migrates north we generally benefit from settled weather? I can't recall seeing such a strong jet that south while there's another one north of us

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

24 minutes ago, Tamara said:

There is sometimes a problem when a change is hinted at in numerical models towards the end of a 10 day period and it then tends to then get extrapolated out in time as some kind of sustained switch in pattern. Taking these evolutions as snapshots in time and set against the general direction of travel of the atmospheric circulation presents some context and perspective.

As mentioned yesterday, computer modelling will jump on the signal from the conclusion of the present ENSO "mini cycle" which acts to provide a (temporary) buffer to the highly anomalous westerly inertia within the tropics and extra tropics as both negative trending frictional and mountain torques serve to bump up the trade winds and the vacuum needs to be filled c/o decelerating the downstream pattern accordingly (retrogression)

But this is just a natural lull period in the overall trend away from La Nina type influences and renewed westerly winds added back into the system should re-set the pattern heading through June. This next re-set is especially interesting in respect of the fact that summer wavelengths will assist the placement of the anticyclonic wave breaking further east and that implies greater influences from southerly and south easterly vectors. At the same time, shallow low pressure anomalies from Iberia and Biscay become more influential and provide some thundery incursion interest accordingly.

So attempting context of the suggested cooler incursion is always a good thing.

Thanks Tamara, I think I actually get it. If this verifies it should be a pretty decent start to summer. 

 Btw, Iwas in Porto last weekend. What a climate... Cool(er) nights, warm days, and an absolutely stunning place. Cost of eating, drinking etc was at least a third less than Leeds. You've made a solid move there

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

15 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

I actually think from  personal remembrance , July 2013 was the hottest July i can remember. IT seemed hotter than 2018 and 2022..but that's just how it seemed to me. 

High pressure domination was a formality across all models from 10 days prior to it arriving. A memorable settled & hot spell that ended up with a true South Easterly draw!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

17 minutes ago, tadpole said:

As interesting as the rain discussion is   anyone looked at any weather forecast models lately? 

High pressure looking the firm horse next week

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

 The very end of the run showing a potential link up of the Azores and Scandi highs... Now that would feel lovely after such a wet March!

 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

6 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Talking about the tropics vs polar cell duel as I have previously - at the other end of the scale (just for fun) in my location it would be lovely sitting outside in this during December

 

On the objective theme however, and with quite deep cold air poised across NE Europe looking for a chance to advect south westwards towards the UK, it all sums up the contrasting fascinations of a pattern evolution like this.

 

That's insane. 27° in mid December?

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The pub run in its later stages may not look so good, but the Jet Stream is on its holidays still…sitting where we want it

Southern Spain desperately needs a wet winter. The jet being that south can only be good news for them (and us)

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Seriously lads and lasses you all need to calm down a little as its not even Winter yet!

These charts and the fact it's nearly Xmas can be bad for ones blood pressure...im very close to being put outside again before I wet the bed yet again.. (through excitement)

Ridiculous Gem utter fifth...shouldn't be even screened till midnight.

Now all calm yourselves

1070mb pressure over Greenland

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

1 hour ago, Mark Smithy said:

This can only be accepted to a point.

You simply cannot make your own truth against verifiable, objective, evidence. What you have cited is part of the problem today: that any old nonsense or conspiracy gets taken up with alacrity, usually by people who have not got any background in the subject.

Actually on climate there is an argument to be had because the earth does go through cycles and it has been very hot in the past. That it is warming now is undeniable. Why it is warming can be a source of debate.

But we should not confuse this with accepting any old dingbat theory that in some instances can be extremely dangerous to others.

What an articulate reply and very reasonable too

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

13 minutes ago, Benji123 said:

Do we think the rain forecast on the GFS for Friday through to Sunday is likely? Or is high pressure gonna take over by then? 

GFS,ECM & GEM all show a trough developing which doesn't bode well for Glasto weekend. Looks like decent weather in the run up though so plenty to be positive about. Rainfall amounts are impossible to forecast at this stage. 

[Summer 2022 Chat]

I'd have loved the hot spell to have peaked on Sunday but the freshness today is absolutely glorious. I was in Albania a few weeks ago and 34° everyday gets oppressive with no escape other than AirCon. Hoping for plenty more rinse & repeats