SouthernSun

First signs of an early evening of moderate rain. No sferics activity associated with what's moving into Dorset and West Hants.

Apart from most of last June.......

Yep, it's a dogs dinner from Friday onwards and GEM 12z follows suit as well with low pressure locked in over the U.K. and nowhere to go. Charts reminiscent of last years absolute dull-fest in the south, which of course was the dullest on record down here

Typical, just got in bed and there was a loud rumble of thunder!

Game over bar the odd flash for everyonewest of Pompey I'm afraid. Outflow killing everything to the northern west of the main MCS.

Seems unlikely now unless nocturnal cooling can aid the mess in the western channel.

Not sure why. Nearest activity is over 60miles outside.

But that precip is primarily outside that axis of the main plume, nocturnal cooling could aid but radar presentation looks messy and in a decaying state.

The vast majority of the Sferic activity has now ceased for the cells west of Jersey. The precip here is turning messy and I'm thinking of looking for the wine opposed to the car keys. Can't see anything further west any Pompey probably Brighton.

Agreed, and with new cells exploding in and around Caen area now, even out over the channel. Think the fat lady is warming up for those to the west of the IOW

Have just read the cells in the western channel are propating more northerly, clearly good news, however that trajectory takes them outside the main axis of the plume which is clearly very bad news.

The mcs has split, the SE quadrant is winning and is probably still gaining benefit from the warm land mass. This will move ENE into Sussex/Kent. Outflow from the weakening western portion may aid growth of storms to its north and west.

Would say an MCS is now forming over Brittany, the eastern portion looks to be propergating a tad east of NE so a line east of IOW looks good here. What's interesting is the western growth, if it splits this could head NNE towards Poole/Bmth. Personally I only see limited action west of Portland.

Looks like the precip image posted from netweathser was a decent depiction however the whole thing looks about 30-50miles too far west. The main storm over Brittany currently will propagate NNE to the east of the IOW. My area of Bournemouth looks to be in a nightmarish gap.....