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Southern Storm

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Posts posted by Southern Storm

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    As @Southern Storm said some fantastic photos, particularly of the storms at sunset...really envious in a nice way...although storms tomorrow are forecast further north im really hoping we can eek out a few surprises further south than today also...(please 🙏)

    Judging by how much the models have been chopping and changing recently I wouldn't give up hope, there will be surprises for many tomorrow 

    I just hope the surprises are positive ones, and not one massive bust where all that potential fails to spark into life 🤞

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Southern Storm

    There's been some fantastic photos posted of todays storms, massive congratulations to those that managed to get a storm

    Tomorrow is looking very interesting for Many areas further north, so hopefully those of you that missed out today will get some proper storms tomorrow. 

    The latest UKv is pretty much a variation of the same theme from today's 12z So all to play for 

    I'm going to risk it for a biscuit and head towards Weymouth/Charmouth way, any storms that do fire  this evening will be elevated, so I should still be able to capture something even if storms develop slightly further west

    Good luck everyone in the coming 24 hours or so ⛈️🌩️⚡😜 

    If they're any locals in here from west Dorset, with knowledge of locations that are reasonably high and have good all round views, please can you let me know, cheers 

    • Like 8

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Here's my discussion for tomorrow. Working from 9 till 5 so best to put it here now even though Jay hasn't done the actual map yet.

    There are a couple different modes and timings with these potential storms. I'll start with the most likely but also has the smallest ceiling of potential.

     

    Ahead of a cold front, with fairly good DLS, showers and storms should form in Ireland and up into parts of western Scotland. These happen mainly throughout the afternoon in a stream along an area of 500-1,000 J/KG of MLCAPE along a tight PV lobe. With weak MLCIN and a fairly good trigger with PV lobe induced low-level convergence. This occurs with fairly high moisture and fairly weak saturation. So, all showers and some weak to moderate storms may well form.

     

    High LLLR's and strong 3CAPE (100+ J/KG) allows for some small severe hail to form, potentially around 1-1.25 inches. There is potential for locally 2,000+ J/KG of MUCAPE and combine that with the large inflow layer and you could suggest, strong updraft speed for strong downdraft speed, however, weak downwards momentum within storm soundings will mean that downwards momentum won't be a particularly high percentage of the updraft speed and with restricted inflow strength, so hail is still going to be restricted compared to updraft strength. Strong buoyancy will help the hail, however, there are a lot of anti-severe hail factors mentioned before that keep it from being a significant factor in anything other than increasing updraft width+speed but not necessarily much of the downwdraft speed for the hail size.

    Moving onto the Wales and the midlands-northern England part of the risk. There is quite strong capping in place and no real trigger. However, 2400+ J/KG of MUCAPE in places with widespread 1,000 J/KG of MUCAPE in an area of tropical moisture rates means that with fairly strong DLS, any low-level convergence available via localised orographic features or something like that, could spark a few severe isolated thunderstorms with a small chance of becoming a Supercell. Again, this happens in the afternoon and if storms can get going then it would be mid-afternoon initiation and into the late evening for storms.

     

    Good buoyancy with a large inflow layer and good sub zero CAPE suggests some 1.5 inch hail is possible. The hodograph isn't really your typical C shape with the inflow which is fairly strong but still leaning towards the moderate side and so the hail is still being restricted to about 1.5 inches. The inflow layer is large compared to recently but still relatively small compared to events larger than 1.5 inches. Storms could potentially reach past 12km cloud tops which is quite high compared to your everyday thunderstorms, hence why they could be quite severe.

    Finally, in the evening and overnight in the SW, some elevated thunderstorms could form. Not particularly large CAPE but good moisture and good modelling guidance suggests, these should happen. Previous events suggest some good lightning frequency potential as well.

    Here's the current idea that Jay has but he's waiting till tomorrow which is fair enough but I can't do; (black outline is area of interest for lightning and also in my opinion, the severe outline I would think of as well.).

    image.thumb.png.c57ac6883d817871d1da87e2467e5153.png

    Great update, much appreciated 👍

    • Thanks 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Metcheck.com - Storm Forecast Discussions - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 7 September 2023 - Expert Meteorologists Analyse Storm and Convective Forecasts For Countries Around The World.

    WWW.METCHECK.COM
    Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 7 September 2023 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth view of where will...

     

     

    According to Metcheck - every single location in the country has a good chance of storms over the next 3-4 days EXCEPT for the central south which has nothing. Again.

     

    What has changed meteorologically in recent years to make the central south one of the worst places outside of the north pole for thunderstorms? Might be an interesting case study for someone.

    What makes it worse is that if you run through the latter frames of the latest UKv, the showers/storms literally skirt around us, bar the very far southwest 🤣 

    Par for the course as far as this year is concerned, but there is still time for things to improve, however, there is a voice saying I should know better than to cling into fale hope. 

    As for less storms, it certainly feels like we are running way below what we'd usually get in any given year, but a remember thinking the same 10 or so years ago, only to be blessed with some reasonably decent storm seasons. Our time will come again I just hope it isn't a long wait.

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

    One year ago!

    FurthereditWM.thumb.jpg.e137423c2055561d87f1ffcd12250fe8.jpg

    Still annoyed about my camera settings/choice of lens on this, but it did lead to me educating myself more on certain things about lightning photography that I was perhaps overlooking a little. Still, made a little bit of money off of two national papers!

    dailymail01.thumb.JPG.588971e92243869981063cd7d376758c.JPG

     

    That's an amazing photo! 

    There will always be something you wish you could change when photographing lightning, I always think I could have done a better job after the fact.

    But we must always remember that we are dealing with lightning, in a country that doesn't experience that much of it, that in itself makes the photo you posted very special indeed!

    Let's hope for something to appear later this week, more epic shots to add to the library 😜

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    19 hours ago, Jamie M said:

    YT video from yesterday

    Great video, it looked like it was really spinning, very nice to watch

    Now we finally have some settled weather, and things are starting to heat up, I wonder if we have some decent storms to look forward to.

    Or are we going to have the heat fade away without any convective breakdown? It's something that has happened a few times in recent years

    In the 90s you'd have a couple of day of 25 degree heat culminating in some big storms, nowadays it seems it can be hotter and have no real breakdown to speak of, I'm hoping for the former 90s scenario

    Only time will tell

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    It's absolutely chucking it down here in Christchurch, no sign of anything electrical yet,  but I do have my eye on the stuff out in the channel. 

    Here is something I put together, I edited most of the storm footage and pictures I managed to capture while over in Burgundy last week, unfortunately I'm not there for today's storms, but I can't complain too much really

    AIL4fc-DrMTGOYcI6EjvWl36tyYk0YYGvqXugeCN

     

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 2

    European Storm & Convective Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Southern Storm

    This is from early hours of this morning looking north towards Troyes

    IMG_3074.thumb.jpg.a64ab51d3e142620256c1f1bc9323426.jpg

    No storms developed around the area I'm staying at, but I had a great view of the storms that were passing to the north of me. 

    I decided to post a facebook link instead as it takes ages to upload full quality images with the connection I currently have, so the rest can be seen over at FB

    Enjoy 

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Facebook

    M.FACEBOOK.COM

     

    • Like 5
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