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Southern Storm
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Posts posted by Southern Storm
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What a pleasant surprise for many of you guys in the southwest, I woke up around 4am and had a sneaky peek out of the window and was greeted with the view of cells to my west flashing away like crazy!
I couldn't miss an opportunity to get some shots so I headed down to Mudeford quay and managed to get a couple of decent photos before daylight become too bright.
All in all, if this morning activity is anything to go by, we could be in for a great 24 hours
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Someone in the southwest is getting a pretty decent storm!
It's a good start to the day
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Wow, I can see the cells flashing away from here in Christchurch east Dorset, very active as from what I can see.
Very encouraging start to the day and it's looking like storms are starting to form near Cherbourg as well
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5 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:
18z out now and actually, it is fairly similar!
I thought I'd seen the 18z at first but I refreshed and only the 15z was loading, very strange..
Anyway, good news that the 15 and 18z are looking similar, how are your conference levels doing? You seemed to have thrown In the towel yesterday, I have to admit to feeling like we were in for another letdown, which may still be the case of course, but todays updates have made me feel better about tomorrows chances
I'm just scared to charge the camera in case I jinx it
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Just now, WeatherArc said:
I'm waiting to wake up tomorrow to grey skies and drizzle with 2 strikes over the channel
Don't you just know it
In all seriousness, it's tomorrow night's storms that I'm more interested in sonim happy to see they are being modelled in a decent locality for me , the ones kicking off around noon will be a nice bonus, which I'll try and film if I can. as photographing lightning during daylight hours is next to impossible, I've only ever managed to get one phot during the daytime
The good thing is there seems to be a few opportunities across I fairly wide area, hope you manage to get something out of this!
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16 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
I have a feeling you'll get some really good captures. No real reason why, just a feeling.
Thanks, I hope you're right, you're not in a bad spot yourself looking at the risk area, I expect you'll get some nice shots also
Tomorrow can't come quick enough
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Just now, ChannelThunder said:
I see you guys have factored in the 2023 Isle of Wight storm shield there, fair play!
love it!
If it's still looking as promising tomorrow, I'm heading east but I'm hoping the risk area moves further west as I have work early on Monday
It will be a late one if so, desperate times desperate measures
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I'm surprised to see a few on here have given up already, but I understand why.
We have the next 24 to 36 hours to salvage a tiny amount of satisfaction from this pitiful 2023 storm season
If nothing meaningful happens by Monday morning, I will officially throw in the towel for 2023
Slightly more activity showing for tomorrow evening from around 8pm on the UKv 6z but we know it will have changed on the next run, one can hope though
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2 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:
Morning is quite possibly the worst time for storms
It's free on a few sites, yeah. My go-to for ease-of-use is WXCharts - that link should take you straight to the 'Radar Reflectivity' chart for England & Wales.
Thanks for that, added to bookmarks
3 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:Morning is quite possibly the worst time for storms
It's free on a few sites, yeah. My go-to for ease-of-use is WXCharts - that link should take you straight to the 'Radar Reflectivity' chart for England & Wales.
Yeah I was thinking the same but beggars can't be choosy can they, if it's light then so be it, at least sunrise is later now, we only need a couple of hours swing in the timings and we may be in luck
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6 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:
I believe this is the area to watch on Satellite and eventually radar this evening:
It's going to take until the early hours for that to crawl its way to the UK mainland. New Arome rolling out now...
Good stuff, the latest UKv is a peach for Sunday morning, it'll probably be totally different on the next one of course
BTW Is the Arome free to view?
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26 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:
What I’m worried about is excessive amounts of cloud cover and clag from earlier decaying systems, limiting surface heating.
We always seem to get more than forecast cloud coverage prior to incoming storms.
Could be, but I haven't heard mention of surface based storms as of yet, for areas in the south, our storms will most likely be elevated in nature so I don't think cloud levels will be an issue, however as Alderc alluded to earlier, turnover of the atmosphere can always be a problem, we just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best
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The latest BBC forecast for tonight's first round of activity coming out of France doesn't look too inspiring, certainly nothing compared to some of the latest high-resolution models, so caution is needed before we can get too excited.
And the timings for Sunday's activity are all over the place, it is a bit of a pain for making plans over the weekend but hopefully we'll start getting the first convective forecasts before too long especially now we are getting closer to the start of our next spell of convective weather
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6 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
That's quite a different but the Arome has a tendency to overplay things doesn't it? I hope not! It will be a nice bonus if it does come off similar to what it's showing.
My attention has been on early hours of Sunday so it looks like we have at least a couple of bites at the cherry
The next couple of days will be interesting
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2 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Well the latest met weekend forecast is calling this a central and western event with the whole of south east/, East Midlands and East Anglia missing out entirely...make of that what you will..
All models are struggling, even the Met will probably be wrong.
As others have said, the radar will be you best friend in the coming days
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42 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I love how many people have already called this as a monumental bust, three days early
I get it - but there’s absolutely no reason to suggest a lot of people won’t be rewarded for their patience on Sunday.
Main things to watch out for are:
• Reliance on poor models
• Cherrypicking only the runs that support what you want to see
• Storms on the continent eating up all the energy Sunday afternoon
• Le Clag Francais ruining everything on Sunday morning
• Being in or near Sheffield
Once bitten twice shy and all that.
I'll be ready for whatever comes our way but I had to get permission from the mrs though
Hopefully autumn is the new summer when it comes to storms, at least in our neck of the woods.
look at last year, some serious storms in September and a tornado making landfall on a few miles from where I live later in October
Bring it on
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
That'll keep going until the next update!
Oh yes please!
We've got to get lucky just once this year surly
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11 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Just been editing my video from Sunday. I just managed to reach the town of Saltfleet (a few miles north of Mablethorpe) in time to catch the northern limit of the storm. But it was as I stood on the coast near a little village called Theddlethorpe that I was treated to a fantastic display of lightning as storms that had previously affected Lincolnshire grazed the coast for about an hour. The display was made even better by a rainbow and then the red glow of the setting sun behind me.
Missed out on being under the core of the storm, which was about 30-40 miles to my south and I had no chance of reaching there in time, but the lightning display was one of the best i have seen in a long time.
Amazing stills! I think you were in the perfect position for filming the storm, closer isn't always better in my opinion, and to record the storm at golden hour is just the icing on the cake. Well done and thanks for sharing!
Looking forward to seeing the finished video if you decide to post it
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13 hours ago, Southern Storm said:
Evening all, I decided to setup the west of Portland
She's incoming
I should have known better than to make a statement like the one above, sorry to everyone in the south, commentators curse really killed off those storms
I did manage to capture 3 bolts, totally worth the time and money spent on fuel.... NOT
For whatever reason, this part of the world has turned into joke as far a storms are concerned, it's really is getting ridiculous, add to that when you find a nice spot to watch any storms that miraculously make an appearance, you have to put up with people playing ridiculously loud music right next to you from their campervan, as well as their 100000000000000 lumin spotlights flooding the countryside making photography virtually impossible
Sorry for the rant, but that's what this years "storm season" has done to us in central southern areas
Having said all that, good luck to anyone wishing for a storm today, can't wait to see how it unfolds.
As there won't be any storms down here, I'm going research good places to stay in France for next year's storm season
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Well that didn't go according to plan, I've decided to drive back to Poole as it became obvious that the first lot of storms moving towards the south coast were loosing intensity, apart from some very far bolts, it was one big waste of time
2023 for ya
I don't know if I should stay out on the off chance something pops up or just call it quits.
Looks like the second round could be decent
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Evening all, I decided to setup the west of Portland
She's incoming
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9 minutes ago, viking_smb said:
This trough, I wonder what direction its heading in. if so its very early
It's hard to say just going off precipitation, maybe someone with more knowledge can give some idea
Going to set off soon, just hope it's not in vain and I can find a good spot
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3 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:
Actually gutted I’m stuck at work till 10
My condolences!
I'd be thinking of some pretty radical excuses to get out of work
Hopefully you have something to chase when you finish
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Southern Storm
There's always this evening, hopefully you'll get something tonight, I think it could be a night to remember