snowbunting

0z demonstrating to us that zonal mild atlantic just isnt going to happen for long periods of time. Significant change to colder synoptics expeced around Christmas if these last few runs of the gfs are to believed.

Long way out... Taking note of the cold nly plunge around Christmas day.. present on the 12z still there in some respects on the 18z. Hmmm. Wonder what the GFS is sniffing at?

Hopefully I have read the chart right! It does for a while but not convinced its grip will be maintained in January looking at the two areas of low pressure around the Greenland and Siberia.the colder less dense air looks for prone to lobing and spilling out of the arctic than normal. Any SSW will pretty much destroy any strong vortex fornation. I think the words vulnerable and potential are appropriate here.

I agree Chiono. It seems even from a novice like me that Nly outbreaks can happen even with subtle changes in ridging. Models seems keen to keep the jet meandering in the around the Northern hemisphere. Ok I admit chances of a UK wide christmas snow event are slim but for certain areas maybe just possible. We live in the Western Isles. Supposedly on the mild atlantic. Snow is unusual close to the coast. A snow event with several inches recorded is even rarer. We have a rapidly cooling island that increases the chance of snow.

Lots of snow for North Lewis over the weekend. About 6inches in depth.. deeper in drifts. The locals are saying most snow since 2010...

Picked this put from the GFS... seems to be a bit of a recurrent pattern. With ridging in the atlantic as cold air spills from the north. I know people are stating mild zonal weather for christmas. But given the amount of snow we have had, I think its too close to call personally. Not convinced about polar vortex strengthening either.

Gfs had Storm Caroline spot on 7days out. Another date via reload of the Nly? I have to say with reading what Tamara has said last night and the METO longer range. I find it hard to bet against such a scenario.

Isle of Lewis.... our digital anemometer is 4m up. Gusting regularly over 130km an hour. Temp dropping all the time. Snow about to arrive in next few hours.

Waiting for the storm.... North isle of Lewis. Prepared, I hope!

I thought I would share some runs from the models last friday for the big thursday event. I found it fascinating how the gfs and ecm fared out in Fl. Gfs stuck to its guns with the cold nly outbreak but underplayed the area of low pressure with the ECM similar. One last thing. Is Storm Caroline likely to produce a potent sting jet given the steap temp gradient as she moves through on Thurs

Eeek dont say that. Together withheavt snow showers we might get snowed in and .... ok I will stop!

Me.. rubbing me hands in Glee... lol. Minor changes for us in the North as the area of low exits the Uk bring gales or severe gales. Not convinced about the timing of the arrival of the snow on thursday... I think it will be earlier on thursday not later. Fully expecting cold weather to bring blizzards and drifting snow to us in the North.

Take my metaphorical hat off to GFS for picking up this Nly blast in the Fl territory.. dropping the idea and then brought it into the frame in a more reasonable timeframe... Last time it did this in forcasting a cold run was 2010. Think next weeks event will be memorable. Enjoy snow lovers countrywide.

I have had a few glasses of wine so now I am brave enough to say whats needs to be said. A winter to remember.... expect the unexpected. Nuff said.

Phenomonal runs from all models. Looking at Nlys next week from wednesday onwards for us up in tbe western isles. We do need to be careful of that low pressure around the 8th. The 12z had it superdeep/extreme and given the different in temp between North and South.. I eouldnt be surprised to see severe gales for the UK... where is anyones guess! Nick that superstorm is just a breeze for us hardy folks on the Isle of Lewis. Lol

The plot slowly evolves as the GFS brings the potent Nly next week back into the picture. The areas of low pressure in the atlantic are playing havoc with the models in terms of their position and strength due to sharp temperature differences. Never a dull moment .

Been watching the models all day. Fascinating watching them evolve. I even got weather geeky at my work as ai explained what was happening. To me ot sounds as though the ECM is overplaying that Euro high and that it keeps seeking the normalised weather state, ie, atlantic. The ridging on the Greenie High is crucial. I would say that Scotland is a pretty firm bet for snow next week.

Gfs is sticking to its guns.

Can someone please tell me what is meant by shortwave and longwave is met terms? I must say the GFS looks awesome. Very potent Nly. Wonder which model will prove right next week. Part of me thinks the ECM as the GFS would cause havoc in the NW.

Oh dear the ECM follows the GFS to the sin bin made by snow lovers. Interesting that the GFS follows this evolution. I would imagine there will be changes one if which is the that the Northerly incursion may get to the North of Scotland and gets a good dumping of snow on it leading edge. The other is that the nasty low gets really deep and moves fast across the uk dragging much colder air behind it. Last thought... the Greenie ridging theory is far from being dead in the water. It has a quick/rapid genesis on the runs I have seen. I would be surprised to see a Northerly outbreak next week. Still a long way off.

I cant buy into that low pressure in the Atlantic resisting the Nly incursion at time +220hrs. on the 18z GFS. I think it s a blip as the models are struggling with the whole evolution past time +144hrs. Lets face it is just classic GFS where it goes along with a pattern, drops it and then comes back with it again in a much more reliable timeframe (like last weeks cold weather).

Not at all Gavin I think a few of us are thinking the same.

Forgot to ask, at the end of the Meto weekly forecast, the forecaster suggests even colder next week. Though the UKMO only went out to 120hrs?

I think all of the models including the UKMO are pointing to another Nly next week. A much colder Nly too. That high pressure mid atlantic looks like it is setting up home for early winter and not leaving anytime soon. Together with a willing Greenie High I can see a few Nly s this year. I will go and get my sledge!

Try not to worry.. its based on the CFS and it appears at the end of the GFS run it just resets back to atlantic mode. Reckon that will change alot in next few weeks.