snowbunting
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Posts posted by snowbunting
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9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
Judah Cohen on Twitter "Polar Vortex currently over western Canada is predicted to make its way to a more favored location over Northern Asia by end of next week, will help open the door for the return of colder air into the Eastern US."
That looks like it would open the doors to a Nly over the UK.
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About the coldest ever sustained ensemble I have ever seen.
Cold looks like it will keep reloading if each run.
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GFS has been pretty much on the money all winter with the ECM lagging behind.
Not unimaginable is it that 0z run especially when we look at the ensembles.
Displacement of the polar vortex over Europe anyone? Brrrr
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7th lot of snow falling this winter.. brrrr with even the hens saying sod this.
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None of our models go out as far the projected effect of a SSW. The time lag is to great so really no point looking at these models until the event has taken place. Yes there has been talk of a 7day delay etc but its really going to be closer to 14days delay.
Alot of pessimism exsists on this thread with no good reason. Patience. MJO and trends in he AO lead the way. Forget the run by run approach. Your just torturing yourselves needlessly.
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Forecast... March cold and snowy for the east side.
West side.. sunny dry and cold...
Perfect!
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Even to my untrained eye the 0z seems to be offering a SSW eventfest. Some pretty significant warming going on as it seems intent on destroying a strong polar vortex over over Canada.
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Well we are now on snow event number 5
I cannot remember a winter with so many wintry outbreaks.
Lost count of total depth but must be getting up for 18 inches (45cm).
One with snow in all months of winter. Really rare.
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Still think the models are still trying to get a grasp of the SSW event. Wait till Sunday or Monday then start crying over the models being rubbish.
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Well well well... getting blasted by cold both directions!
Its Fl territory for the more reserved peeps on the forum but and this is a big but the trend is their for an easterly. At this stage of SSW in 2013 it was projecting this far in advance with a huge amount of confidence.
It will do so again.
Enjoy ( I will enjoy a cold crisp sunny early spring (and dry).
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1 minute ago, craigore said:
Just a question for those more experienced.
Why are the bbc still going for N.Westerly sourced air nxt week
And still have temps in the south between 5&7c
They are not showing any thing like what the posters on this forum have been showing for the last 12 hrs now.
How can there be temps like there forcasting wth minus 10-12c uppers from a frigid east. ??
Im assuming they have there own mods and are completly disagreeing wth what what the majority of us in here are hoping for & seeing ??
I find Meto and BBC are very slow to lower temps in response to colder periods of weather forecast. Give it till Sunday and then you will see it all change for next week. The clue with the meto is when the forecast turns cloudy and dry all day long!
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And so the pattern continues... the battle of Britain goes on and on.. deep into Fl territory. West or East... perhaps both. No let up in the models. Winter is knocking hard on all of our doors.
I havent seen this scenario before in my lifetime.. not to this repetitive state.
Analysis of the ensembles show this battle really well... west showing the encroachment of the warm sectors with east illustrating the warm sector being consumed by cold weather.
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Im looking at the ensembles... pretty much in agreement to 180hrs plus. The 850s are up then down then up then dowm then up then down... lol
Fascinating model watching as the Uk becomes the battle ground for some very cold weather.
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7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:
Just need it to arrive earlier in February, rather than later. As the month progresses, the sun really strengthens, so soon melts snow on the ground. Encouraging signs all round though!
Thats what I used to think when we got snow in feb and even march. However Some of the fiercest blizzards and deepest snow have fallen in these months. March 2006 being most notable.
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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
He hasnt got it wrong so far this winter. Dust off the sledges!
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1 minute ago, igloo said:
Well the west is best if you live in western scotland northern ireland or cumbria as easterlys deliver nothing in those areas but i do no the cold gets modifayed the further south it goes which sadly has been the case all season so far for the southern half of the uk
To be honest, we have had so much snow up here I would happily settle for some sunny cold weather.. aka easterly.
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We shall see.. I generally only post on here when I feel their is a bite at the cherry. I think the ensembles are giving us some clues here with a number of the individual runs being significantly cold. I think the fact that the models cant grasp whats likely to hapoen after the 2nd of feb indicates that it really is a battlefield developing between East and West.
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Yes - when you see the -8c isotherm in from the west like it does on that run, that's when I wouldn't turn my nose up, the -6c recently gave me a slushfest with admittedly a few dustings and inchers but then in the day it would turn to rain.
We are heading into the coldest part of winter and with models like that it is pretty much knife edge stuff... cold from west or cold from east... certainly no mild rubbish.
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Cold from the continent or cold from the Canadian Vortex? Both ECM and GFS singing from same hymm sheet.
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My thoughts are there is still alot of uncertainty from next week onwards. I still fell the NW flow will rule..the ensembles . From around the 2nd of feb, really show this.
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3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
I remember that one, too...Wasn't it 18C, in Banchory, only a day or two before?
It was yes... that was a classic Nly for Highlands and Islands.
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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
GFS 18z for Friday!
back in winters deep cold air !
Groan... so much snow. Been so cold.
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We have so much snow here in the western isles. Its hard to believe we can have a winchill of -7c on a Swly@!!!!!
We have anout 4inches on the ground. Not bad going at all making it a total of 11 days if snow falling this winter season and 21days of snow lying on the ground... no bad for a wee island on the atlantic.
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3 hours ago, knocker said:
What does this mean knocker?
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Just a note of caution on reading too much into the models past 240hrs or so. We do have yet another SSW event ongoing off Canadas atlantic coast. Like the last SSW 10days ago or so it look the models a while to input that into the runs. For me it looks like it hasnt done so so just yet. If the mild returns it will be brief. I suspect it wont and in turn we shall have more Nly outbreaks of cold wrather. If you want a year that was similar try March 2006 or 2013.... brrrrr.