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    Isle Of Lewis
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    Horses, weather, hillwalking and crofting
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  1. Just a note of caution on reading too much into the models past 240hrs or so. We do have yet another SSW event ongoing off Canadas atlantic coast. Like the last SSW 10days ago or so it look the models a while to input that into the runs. For me it looks like it hasnt done so so just yet. If the mild returns it will be brief. I suspect it wont and in turn we shall have more Nly outbreaks of cold wrather. If you want a year that was similar try March 2006 or 2013.... brrrrr.
  2. That looks like it would open the doors to a Nly over the UK.
  3. About the coldest ever sustained ensemble I have ever seen. Cold looks like it will keep reloading if each run.
  4. GFS has been pretty much on the money all winter with the ECM lagging behind. Not unimaginable is it that 0z run especially when we look at the ensembles. Displacement of the polar vortex over Europe anyone? Brrrr
  5. 7th lot of snow falling this winter.. brrrr with even the hens saying sod this.
  6. None of our models go out as far the projected effect of a SSW. The time lag is to great so really no point looking at these models until the event has taken place. Yes there has been talk of a 7day delay etc but its really going to be closer to 14days delay. Alot of pessimism exsists on this thread with no good reason. Patience. MJO and trends in he AO lead the way. Forget the run by run approach. Your just torturing yourselves needlessly.
  7. Forecast... March cold and snowy for the east side. West side.. sunny dry and cold... Perfect!
  8. Even to my untrained eye the 0z seems to be offering a SSW eventfest. Some pretty significant warming going on as it seems intent on destroying a strong polar vortex over over Canada.
  9. Well we are now on snow event number 5 I cannot remember a winter with so many wintry outbreaks. Lost count of total depth but must be getting up for 18 inches (45cm). One with snow in all months of winter. Really rare.
  10. Still think the models are still trying to get a grasp of the SSW event. Wait till Sunday or Monday then start crying over the models being rubbish.
  11. Well well well... getting blasted by cold both directions! Its Fl territory for the more reserved peeps on the forum but and this is a big but the trend is their for an easterly. At this stage of SSW in 2013 it was projecting this far in advance with a huge amount of confidence. It will do so again. Enjoy ( I will enjoy a cold crisp sunny early spring (and dry).
  12. I find Meto and BBC are very slow to lower temps in response to colder periods of weather forecast. Give it till Sunday and then you will see it all change for next week. The clue with the meto is when the forecast turns cloudy and dry all day long!
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