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    Isle Of Lewis
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    Horses, weather, hillwalking and crofting
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  1. Can I just say.. Im sick of snow now... going into day 5 of this event with about 12cm on the ground. This has been out 4th snow event this year and the roads are horrendus.
  2. The ensembles are all over te place by that time... so yes 50:50 for another cold soell.
  3. The feature that heralds the biggest chsnge at the end of the week.. looks far less amplified on the 0z. Could this be a trend?
  4. Yes... uncertainty seen in the ensembles. That rouge run...
  5. Ensembles say it all really. Cold for the north till end of the week and then huge uncertainty after that. The jetstream is meandering alot so I dont buy zonal mild trash.
  6. I think the north of Scotland will get a pasting tomorrow night Anything with lightening really opens tbe heavens up.
  7. Oh so very naughty. Must be something in the wind.... lol. Anyway... looking good for us in Scotland. Waiting with baited breath to see what tomorrow brings. Everything so far is heading us on the direction of a cold week.
  8. Im sure it will. Looking very interesting week coming up.
  9. The Fax does look really good for Scotland. Maybe even Thundersnow by Tuesday. Im happy with this.
  10. Much friendlier too.. I get generally ignored because I cant come up the with verbal meteorlogical runs like some do.
  11. Two things from the model tuns this morning... 1. The low expected around this thursday is most likely going to take a more Nly track... 2. After 150hrs we have loads of ensemble runs supporting the sustained cold conditions.
  12. Personally think they did a few tweeks to the overnight GFS model to account for the Siberian cold and cyclonic conditions in the pacific. And so overcooked the second low pressure coming in end of next week. There was no progression to that low.. it just appeared. I think they maybe inputted a bit more bias for a cyclonic west coast in US. The jet is flat/straight as a pancake which is unusual this winter. Even the obligatory SSW had disapoeared from the 300hrs + Dont buy into the doom and gloom.. not just yet.. we shall have 5days of snow in the Scotland. Winter is here to stay for a while anyway.
  13. Looks like that low pressure on Thursday will track further north and deepen, I do hope all you southern uplander peeps have a very large snow shovel to hand...
  14. Most of the ensembles are going for a more Nly track for that storm on Thursday. It is still a long way off, but the storm Caroline was also due centre over North England in this timescale but ended up just north of mainland Scotland. But it is just one model/ and 1 run so if we see ALL of the GFS runs doing the same tomorrow, anywhere north of Yorkshire will get a lot of snow. I would love to know Tamara's thoughts on this cold spell and for the rest of January.