NorthantsSnow
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Posts posted by NorthantsSnow
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Regardless of whether we get the fairly widespread area of 40c the GFS is predicting on Tues, it will certainly be reached in places. I think we can say that for certain now.
So for me the GFS emerges with an awful lot of credit for picking it up so early and sticking with the idea. I know it initially had Sunday as the hottest day, but it's still been remarkably consistent for the most part and handled this current setup better than the other leading models.
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12 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:
Hi just wondering if you are Gavin Partridge from gavs weather vids on YouTube?
I have no idea who that is, so no.
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This is fast becoming my least favourite winter in my lifetime, it's got so little going for it. We haven't had the amounts of sunshine some places have had though. Most days are just grey and dry, a little cold at times if we've been good boys and girls. No variety whatsoever. Then you look at the models and lose that last bit of hope you didn't even know you had. The jet stream pattern is killing us, we can't even get a direct northerly going! And even in fantasy island it can't seem to conjure up a route to cold, however implausible, which confirms beyond doubt that nothing remotely interesting is going to happen from this point.
Not something I thought I'd ever say, but bring on spring now. Model watching this year has been the most joyless of past-times.-
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Damn, that pub run is a corker. The best charts I've seen for this area in a long time.
You just know it will be corrected south in subsequent runs. But at least a cold spell looks assured now, and we should get something. -
1 hour ago, Purplepixii said:
I gotta ask, would it not be more responsible for the Met Office to replace the thunderstorm warnings with rainfall warnings? The rate this stuff is falling, and the time it’s taking too, must be causing more issues than the (low) possibility of a thunderstorm?
Well said. The reliability of the Met Office warnings system will rightly come under fire if there are flooding issues today. Remarkable that they took so long.
Northants looks to be in for an interesting afternoon to say the least.-
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A bit of thunder and lightning around Northants in the past 10 minutes. Soon brightening back up again, as the rain continues to fall.
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I hate to moan but it's a shame the beast has been such a damp squib for this part of the world.
We've just been unlucky with the main fronts / steamers missing us I guess, as I know we used to do very well for snow from this kind of setup in yesteryear.
Still, it's been very cold and we do have some snowcover at least. -
Relieved to see the GFS quickly ditch the 12z idea of the high sitting much closer to the UK. This evolution is very nice looking from the 18z, and not too dissimilar to the ECM. Both incredibly cold and snowy with no obvious end in sight.
At times these past few days it's felt like the models are competing with one another at the moment to show us coldies the nicest looking charts - never in my time on Netweather have I experienced that before, and I'm not complaining!-
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It's determined not to do anything but rain here.
Surprising as I thought originally we were well placed for this sort of event, but it just hasn't happened for us at all. Might get something tomorrow morning but not holding my breath at this point. -
7.3C.
And that's being optimistic.
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My worst nightmare of a winter. I must have sensed it was coming as I didn't even bother investing in NW Extra this year for the first time in god knows how long and so far I have no regrets. I've kept my distance from the site and the models generally to avoid disappointment. I feel for any fellow coldies that have invested as much as ever only for us to get stuck with these god awful patterns that show no signs of abating whilst winter rapidly accelerates away from us for another year.
Dismal and one I will never forget for the wrong reasons.
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Astonished at how negative it is in here. The radar I'm looking at still looks very good for this region with many more hours of snow to come.
(EDIT to add: as long as you're west of say Scu'thrpe)
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I'm in York and absolutely bog all is happening. Not even a flake in the wind.
You'd be better off being back home for this event ! Not often we can say that.
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Settling in Doncaster yet?
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YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS-
Great news folks. The latest NAE is a major major upgrade for the region.
Happy days. Game very much on. And my drunken wager looks a little safer than it did a few hours ago, haha.
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Just to let you all know it could shift an extra 30-40 miles north east so looking at those images Yorkshire is deffo going to get 5-15cm
Where did you hear that fella ?
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I've just watched bbc news 24 forecast and this does look the case, very little Snow tomorrow in eastern parts of our region until tomorrow night when front peps up.
Not on the NAE. If the NAE could fall into line with the GFS regarding tomorrow night's event in its 18z run that would be good.
Note the major major differences for 9pm Friday-
NAE http://expert-images...032221_2112.gif
GFS http://expert-images...032221_2112.gif
I know which one I prefer !
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The gfs and the ukmo look spot to me even up till sat evening
That's good to know. I never bother looking at the UKMO. But NAE is high-res.
Can anyone with NW Extra update us on how the NMM is looking please ?
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I'm still struggling to get excited about tonight/tommorow for here just because I can see it turning to rain and tommorow night's front when it turns back to snow looks a lot weaker this side of the region, 12z was another downgrading shift northwards with those mild 850's, praying now its wrong and the front ends up much further south.
GFS is probably wrong, differs massively from the NAE. Another run or two required but I'm amazed we still don't have consensus about the weather in 24 hours time !
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GFS 12z looks alright to me with hours of mod-heavy snow, the front does appear to struggle at first but has no problem moving east eventually, W York's looks alright IMO.
GFS looks rather different to the NAE though. The NAE is a lot poorer for this region. Might explain the lack of an amber warning.
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What is this, I don't even ~
I wonder if the Metty will throw THIS one out.
Oh, it's lovely to be near Birmingham sometimes.
Nice charts for here.
Not so good news for my wager that Donny races would be off on Saturday.
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What odds?
Not great, about 4/5. It's a bit shorter than that on the exchanges now.
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I do hope Doncaster is still in the firing line. In a drunken stupor last night upon viewing the models I decided to have a sizeable wager on Donny's racing meet being abandoned on Saturday. Seemed like a good idea at the time, not so much the next morning! Dreading any further SW shifts.
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The snow has picked up a bit here in the last 45 mins or so. Lamp post watching has been at its most mesmerising, especially as I've had a few beers!
Met Office are now forecasting heavy snow here at 3am whereas before it was showing light snow. Nice upgrade that, but I can see myself dropping off before then.
Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Torrential rain mixed with hail currently, some thunder. The Met Office had us down for a 10% chance of a thunderstorm between 1600-1700 about two hours ago, so excellent accuracy there.