Scorcher

Still feel sick to my stomach about the football...but at least we have one of the best runs of the whole summer to bring some cheer. A truly sensational GFS 18Z. This is not going to be a 3 day affair guys...

Manchester Airport has already reached 25C, as has Rostherne near the airport.

Am I looking at the same run as you? Looks an absolute belter to me- what more could we expect? Only issue is right at the very end of the run but highly unlikely that scenario will verify anyway.

True that we haven't seen any notable warmth so far- but it's been consistently fairly warm by day as well as by night here- averaging 21.3C so far. Minima around average so far. So here at least, it's the day time highs more than night time mins that have kept the average high. It's been a very wet first third of the month and also very dull overall- but notable how few cool days there have been (only one day hasn't reached 20C so far in July, and that was 19.1C) even going back to the start of June.

Not according to the latest GFS run this evening. No end in sight to the HP. Granted this may be a settled outlier, but things are certainly trending towards a more prolonged settled period.

I'm surprised you and Alderc actually follow the models and don't simply follow sod's law all the time... We do get highs that stick over us at times- the one next week looks the strongest high I've seen for some time in the summer months which is why I'm dubious about the GFS evolution.

Again another strange run from the GFS. I'm suspicious of how such a robust and strong area of high pressure which begins to move in on Thursday suddenly weakens quite dramatically. The 00Z was basically bottom of the pack earlier on and I reckon this isn't much better.

I agree it's pointless trying to look at the detail at the surface a week ahead. Also the ECM and GFS are showing 2 very contrasting scenarios for the weekend and beyond. The GFS has a weaker area of high pressure this morning but it would be better in the short term nationwide, with a very warm to hot weekend for many but then gets flattened very quickly (very suspicious). There are big differences well within the reliable timeframe even- the GFS makes very little of that shallow trough over the continent whereas the ECM takes a lot longer to clear it, which affects the position of the high as it moves across the UK. Fair to say high pressure looks nailed on though.

I get the impression that one or two in here would be disappointed if there wasn't something to moan about... Things are really looking up from the middle of next week on- the GFS has backed down from its earlier rogue run and shows mostly settled and very warm/hot weather virtually to the end of the latest run. Looking very good for a much warmer, sunnier spell and I think we may well see 30C for the first time this summer (finally).

Based on what? An outlier from the GFS? I actually think things are beginning to look very good for a fairly prolonged spell of settled weather.

Yes we reached 30C in the last week of August here in 2019. I can't find another example of that in the records. Even 1995 and 1997 didn't manage it.

I can't argue about the spring to be honest- one of the worst Mays I can remember. April was sunny but far too chilly for much of the month. I think up here we had a much better June overall which has made up for it to some degree

With a June that was well above average? I get that it wasn't great in the south, but talk about hyperbole! I take it you can't remember June 2012?

You must not wear shorts very often in the UK then...I'm happy wearing them from about 19C up although will sometimes wear a hoodie or zip up jumper on top if it's cloudy.

We've been through this before about rainfall totals too... I'm struggling to see what is so awful about the ECM this morning.

I'm surprised that you're surprised- warm nights the last couple of nights in the CET zone and still reaching the lows 20s by day. It could actually rise again today.

Virtually every day here at the moment... The air is certainly warm enough to easily support temps over 70F if we get enough sunshine next week.

I'm struggling to recall another month that had such an odd profile for rainfall- almost completely the reverse of what you'd expect. Not only were areas further north and west much drier in relation to average but also in actual rainfall amounts.

So interesting how the experience has been so different further north and west- a good June here with a very sunny first half and dry throughout. 21 days above 20C here by day during June. Even the second half of the month had some sunny days here.

My local weather station only recorded 14mm of rain in the month- a very dry month overall here and all of the rain that did fall was in the 2nd half of the month. I'm surprised that some are crediting the minima with lifting the CET figure- here it's been the opposite. The average max has been 20.9C with a few cool nights, so actually it's been the daytime temps that have lifted the average. 21 days reached 20C or above during the month- very decent indeed. A very sunny first half here followed by a slightly dull (but still warm) second half.

I disagree with this...it has felt warm around here at least. We've been in the low 20s for much of the month by day here. It hasn't been 'hot' but I can't recall any other June that was so consistently in the 'warm' category by day. The classic Junes have often tended to have cooler spells (even 1976) with heatwaves bringing the average up. I'm sure those further south will disagree but I think this month would certainly merit being in the top 10 in the last century.

It really is depressing reading in here with a couple of regular culprits. We should have been experiencing flooding over the last few days according to these people with biblical amounts of rain- surprise, surprise it hasn't happened. I'm very much an amateur model watcher myself and I would never claim to know more than the Met Office for example (and obviously don't have access to the level of data they have either) but there are a few in here who think they know better. I'm expecting this trough to end up stalling to our west rather than simply ploughing through as the ops are showing. It's fair to say the ops should not be trusted more than about 3 days out at the moment.

As always some are getting very despondent from one set of model runs- the ECM was showing something very different last night so I'm not going to worry about what it's showing 8 days out. I must admit though it was slightly deflating to see that this morning when I hoped we might have a further swing to hot conditions.

Not saying I told you so but you and a couple of others were convinced it was going to be a dire weekend with biblical rainfall amounts. Many places in the south pretty much stayed dry in the end. Those precipitation charts are not to be taken as gospel by any means and the Met Office were never on board with the idea of huge amounts of rain.

Unfortunately the real strong high pressure that the anomalies were showing a couple of days back doesn't look like arriving at all now.