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Scorcher

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Status Updates posted by Scorcher

  1. Beautiful day- one of the best days I can remember in mid-November. 

    1. Tamara

      Tamara

      Yes, much of the human race will agree with that 🙂. At least away from the myopic ice age obsessed (and largely lacking in objectivity) hunt for cold model thread. 

      Some more nice days ahead this week - and which can be wholly relied on at a close time period🙂

       

    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Yes Tamara, nice to get the mild sunny days while we can. Plenty more time for the epic cold that many in the model thread are yearning for!

  2. 93 days of 20C+ in Manchester this year. It has easily smashed 1976 and 1995 on this front.

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      I counted 131 at Heathrow, possibly more at the more built up stations such as London City Airport. And yes has there been a more persistently warm year than this one in terms of maxima? I highly doubt it.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Manchester has had 34 days above 25C as well, almost identical to 1995 (32 I think). Heathrow 61 days above 25C. Also there has been an exceptionally long period between the first and last 25C this year, at least nationally.

    4. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      I must have had 140 odd very good summer started in April :) 

  3. Extraordinary temperatures around the country right now. Surely there has never been a night quite like this one in October before?

    1. Show previous comments  8 more
    2. Weather-history

      Weather-history

      Probably the last 20C of the year for a number of places.  

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Yes looks like it. You never know though. We must have thought the chance of 20C was done at this stage in 2005 and 2014. I wonder when the last rainy 20C was recorded in October in Manchester. 

    4. I remember Atlantic 252

      I remember Atlantic 252

      still remaining warm though for few days, but showing uglier for next monday, NE breeze yuk

  4. One of the best October days I can remember. Absolutely stunning.

    1. Mapantz

      Mapantz

      Made it to 21.3°C here. It was weird this morning.. 10am it was hazy sunshine but 99% humidity. It felt jungle-esque!

    2. I remember Atlantic 252

      I remember Atlantic 252

      yes, was like summer, imagine this setup in July/Wimbledon, 38 degrees possible

  5. Another lovely warm run from the GFS, looks like we will be back to warmth after the weekend

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. Tamara

      Tamara

       

      The atmospheric circulation has helped the patterns taken on a much more El Nino type shape at the moment more so than since mid July. Hence the downstream high pressure over Europe has returned and low pressure to the west. The models have tried to revert the pattern back to late summer/start of autumn default a couple of times with retrogressed heights in the atlantic and a cyclonic/unsettled pattern for us and into Europe.

      But bar Ophelia and the weekend low, next week shapes back to a similar pattern to where we have been - albeit very unlikely to be as warm as leading up to Ophelia and most changeable closer to the troughs running up to the NW of the UK..  The test in the 10 to 15 day period will be what happens to tropical convection - fairly high amplitude eastward movement sustains angular momentum and supports the suggested pattern - though heights increasing to the north west also a probably as the stratospheric vortex is displaced. But the cooler Pacific ENSO zone threatens abrupt end of MJO wave heading into Western Pacific and a revived Nina type response which would lead to a cool down and removal of heights to our east and augment the stratospheric signal for displaced heights to our west and trough into Scandinavia. Long way off at the moment in uncertain signals and consequent model output terms though.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Brilliant post, thank you. Well above my knowledge level!

    4. Tamara

      Tamara

      My garden plants, including palms. olives and figs are happy for some further mellow warm autumn weather, so they are hoping for more warm southerlies this month!

  6. The BBC are again going to be proven wrong this weekend with conservative temperature predictions I believe- already 2-3C too low in a lot of areas today

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. reef

      reef

      I'm not really sure, but they often seem to go too low on maxima and too high on minima these days. It could be they aren't sure on cloud amounts.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Could be to do with cloud, but they've got 17C for here on Sunday- we've managed 19.3C on an almost completely cloudy day today with rain for much of the morning. Some places have reached 21C in cloudy conditions today.

    4. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      Knocker was giving me a lecture on temps however who looks who's going to be right.. :search:

  7. The last 2 days have been the worst two days of the winter in Manchester in my opinion- dull, cold and damp- a really horrible feel to the weather. Very envious of the sunshine further south. Would take an Atlantic onslaught over this any day!

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. IanR

      IanR

      roll on spring and summer, forgot what bright clear and convective skies look like,   winter is a borefest and i dont really like snow anyway ,  the sooner the pergutory season ends the better,     lets hope this summer we get another supercell storm in the north west like the one in july 2015, and september 2016,   i predict 2017's supercell storm will happen in august   (one wishes)   

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      I'm trying to be positive this winter though Ian, I do agree with a lot of your points. The general lack of bright sunlight begins to wear me down at this time of year. It's just the length of the season- it seems to go on forever and the light levels are so poor, even when the sky is clear. I can deal with it up to the end of December but after that it gets very boring

    4. Allseasons-si

      Allseasons-si

      Most activities go out the window too,at least when it snows i can get out and enjoy it with my daughter.....when:lazy:

  8. Absolutely loving this tropical airmass- a really humid 23C in Manchester this afternoon- a few degrees higher than forecast! Very impressive for the last week of September

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      I hope for your sake and the other cold weather fans that we get some proper cold this winter- wouldn't mind a few frosty mornings and cool sunny days myself actually.

    3. sundog

      sundog

      I would not be at all surprised if another mild winter is on the cards but some of the long range models offer hope.

    4. MP-R

      MP-R

      Dry and warm I can handle in October, especially if sunny. Wet and warm I can not. Next week looks like we could get the former which would be great.

  9. Beautiful weekend in Manchester. The warm spell may be over but it has still felt warm by day here- 19C with sunshine on both days.

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Last night was a lot milder though- only got down to around 14C here! I've got to say, even though I prefer mild nights, Sunday morning was absolutely stunning with the clear fresh air and warm sun.

    3. karyo

      karyo

      We agree at last! :-)

    4. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Don't get used to it...haha!

  10. Anyone have any tips for forecasting cloud amounts? I still don't get why the UK suffers with so much cloud regularly in favourable setups on paper. Also why are perfectly still days so rare in the UK even under high pressure? 

    1. Show previous comments  7 more
    2. Evening thunder

      Evening thunder

      Sea on all sides and moist air masses with weaker sun I guess, although we had a number of sunny or mostly sunny days in the last month here. Pressure and cloud don't always correlate of course as there are many other more complex variables, sometimes sunny days happen under low pressure. There's a slight breeze today as we're not actually under a high centre, but in a slight SW drift. Though it was light here today and pretty calm yesterday.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      It should be stiller here tomorrow I'd have thought with the high drifting east and more of a southerly than a southwesterly. Not that there was much breeze but occasionally you felt it today

    4. Evening thunder

      Evening thunder

      Hopefully then. Forecast to pick up from the SE down here though that should help clear cloud (although it cleared here this afternoon)

  11. Yet more northerly muck- not sure who keeps perpetuating the myth that northerlies are bright and sunny. More often than not they are dull and cold here. Horrible day again today.

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. Nick L

      Nick L

      Well it got a laugh!

    3. Frost HoIIow

      Frost HoIIow

      If I want very warm/hot weather from an easterly then somewhere like Blackpool or Merseyside does very well. They probably do better than anywhere in the region on those occasions. For here a long fetch southerly wind is best for heat (obviously from a Spanish plume etc like start of July last year) Blackpool tends to be cooler when high pressure is over us and they get a slight on shore breeze off the Irish sea. While 10+ miles inland bakes. Interesting how different wind directions can have quite big differences over our small part of the world.

    4. Geordiesnow

      Geordiesnow

      But they are bright and sunny though, Scotland has some fantastic classic sunshine and showers today! You were just under a cold front that was heading southwards.

       

  12. As I predicted, another day which is warmer than forecast by the Met (12C here in Manchester). In Western areas this is going to be a better week than first thought I believe.

     

    1. Costa Del Fal

      Costa Del Fal

      Yes and today was no where near as cloud as forecast. Met office had cloud symbols till lunch but it was sunny from the word go! West of Birmingham and about Leeds this should be a decent week although there will be undoubtedly more cloud in the next few days at least at times but not a gloomiest for the west I don't think. :)

    2. Weather-history

      Weather-history

      That wind had an edge to it though

  13. A lovely warm feeling day in Manchester with virtually unbroken hazy sun and 13C. Just shows how these setups can produce some lovely days at this time of year.

    1. Costa Del Fal

      Costa Del Fal

      Gorgeous isn't it. I'm eating lunch outside in the sun right now and wearing shorts. :) really pleasant. Sure this temperature come summer would be chilly but after winter when it's been chilly, these temperatures always feel pleasant for a while at first. :)

    2. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      Was running in Alex park in Manchester ,15 c  reckon

    3. I remember Atlantic 252

      I remember Atlantic 252

      lucky you, E wind to be nasty for the south

  14. How anyone can dislike this weather is beyond me- it feels amazing for the end of October. Just been out and about in 18C sunshine!

    1. Show previous comments  10 more
    2. Nick L

      Nick L

      Yep, dark, dank and miserable. Give me cold and sunny any day.

    3. Thundery wintry showers

      Thundery wintry showers

      I'd enjoy 18C and sunny, but it's been grey and damp all day here.

    4. chrisbell-nottheweatherman

      chrisbell-nottheweatherman

      As others have said, some areas have been gloomy and drizzly.

  15. Great weather for October...sat outside at lunch time in warm sunshine and a temp of 19C. Great to barely need a jacket first thing as well...

  16. The weather in Manchester has been really quite good this week- another nice day today. Amazing given how it looked a few days ago.

    1. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      North, South reverse?

  17. Warm and humid next week anyone? Signs that the trough may back westwards appearing

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      it would certainly be more exciting that regular gales and heavy rain

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      There could well be some storms midweek if the ECM 12Z comes off

    4. legritter

      legritter

      next week looking interesting for us weather watchers ,time for a Bap and a pint sat out in the sun ,autumn is on its way proper cheers .

  18. I see the BBC/Met pessimists were wrong again for NW England today- 24C in Manchester after a predicted max of 19 yesterday evening. Now also going for 26C tomorrow. Amazing how an amateur like myself can be a lot closer to the mark

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. gottolovethisweather

      gottolovethisweather

      Hi Scorcher, not getting at you specifically but in their guidance at 12.30pm I heard them saying it was a very difficult setup to get right. My post here - reflected my thoughts on their impression of events and if I'm honest they weren't far wrong, no rain here yet as forecast but its incoming. The bigger issue for me is anticipating an error-free forecast every time, zero chance.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      True, not suggesting it's an easy job for one second, but surely it was more of a risk to predict a max of 19C with such warm upper air in place? Clearly with any sunshine it was going to get higher than that. When there's a southerly/SE component here we nearly always see some sun in such a setup, even when the pressure isn't that high.

    4. gottolovethisweather

      gottolovethisweather

      Good point Scorcher.

  19. Beautiful day. And how wrong were the BBC for the second day in a row? Cloud amounts far lower than predicted and temperatures much higher for many. 12C predicted in Manchester, 16C reached.

    1. Eugene

      Eugene

      No cloud at all here, always check GFS dewpoint charts to see if westerlies bring cloud, when they are green/light yellow it will bring sun when they go orange most likely cloudy and moist, this is in winter/spring/autumn of course

    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Thanks for that tip Eugene, surprising that the BBC don't use such a simple method. I drove to Ludlow today in Shropshire and barely saw a cloud all the way. Have heard reports it was also mostly clear in Manchester in the afternoon. Suppose it's understandable the temperatures were higher than predicted with so little cloud.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Just shows as well that you can't categorise all southwesterlies in the same way as people have the temptation to do.

  20. Who said southwesterlies are always cloudy at this time of year? Stunning day in Manchester.

  21. Another fantastic ECM 12Z this evening, could this be turning into a memorable summer? And could we finally get a hot August?

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. I Cumbria Marra I
    3. Captain Shortwave

      Captain Shortwave

      Looks like a perfect summers week, very warm and sunny for many, with a few well scattered thunderstorms

    4. lassie23
  22. Have just seen a bumble bee in the garden- surprising to see on March 1st!

    1. Show previous comments  4 more
    2. Eugene

      Eugene

      If its out on a day like today then it must be a very common occurance because today isn't unseasonably mild at all and days like today occur in almost every March for centuries and centuries, turning rather chilly now it must be said as the sun lowers

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Eugene it's not just about today but previous days and weeks, the lack of frost has been remarkable and it has allowed a lot of blossom and flowers to come out early- yes today was very normal but the last few weeks haven't been

    4. Milhouse

      Milhouse

      Lol. Must be the change of Season. Eugene has been in rather confrontational mood today :)

  23. 3rd day in a row of 12C temps here, looks like we could make it 4 tomorrow...

    1. CongletonHeat

      CongletonHeat

      could do with 3 months in a row

    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      haha well we might go 3 months without an air frost at this rate, 19 days and counting here!

  24. Serious cold in Minneapolis today, -19C at midday with a wind chill of -32C!

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Think I'd be escaping to the UK if I lived there!

    3. March Blizzard

      March Blizzard

      It was strangely pleasant today, I'm a "coldie" at heart but I do enjoy mild weather on occasion, especially if it's dry and accompanied by sunshine.

    4. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Yes the last 2 days have been great MB

  25. Lovely mild day today, you don't often get 12C with sunshine in December!

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. AderynCoch

      AderynCoch

      Bland is the word. I can't believe Christmas is only two and a half weeks away.

    3. Eugene

      Eugene

      Neither can I Aderyn, wouldn't think so with the weather ahead, could soon move the ashes to December in England<lol

    4. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      It's probably been warmer today than it was on the first day in Adelaide!

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