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About Scorcher

  • Birthday 28/05/87

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  1. A better run from the GFS 12Z this evening- later on in the run, the area of low pressure stalls further west in the Atlantic. This could allow us to draw up some warmer air from the south and also allow high pressure to build in a more favourable position for the UK. Not a terrible run further west in the reliable time frame either. The BBC are very confident that areas further west will see plenty of sunshine from Tuesday onwards, although temperatures will be nothing special even in the west, probably mid teens at best.
  2. In any case, it's looking like it will be a good deal warmer than this week, except perhaps on North Sea coasts. Although the runs have been a bit disappointing after what we had the other night, it is going to be a big improvement on this week temperature-wise for most.
  3. They also have access to a lot more data than we do, so I don't think you can call it 'absolutely crazy'. I still think that locally it could get warm midweek, particularly further west.
  4. Well no, but last night's charts were truly sensational, I wasn't really expecting them to be showing again today. But the ECM has moved back towards a strong high pressure build this evening after a relatively disappointing run this morning. These are still excellent charts, particularly for the west of the country. It's still a long way off and the positioning of the high is far from certain- we could still see a more favourable position for nationwide warmth as we get closer to the time. The good news to me tonight is that the models seem to be backing away from retrogression of the high which was being shown earlier.
  5. The ECM has backed away from the direct hit from the northerly it seems to me- will be interesting if we see further downgrades in the morning. Just a glancing blow for the north and east shown on the ECM 12Z.
  6. What a poor outlook, very disappointing after the spring so far. Of course some may find potential frost to be of interest but it could well be that we are just stuck with cool/cold, cloudy conditions in such a setup. The lack of activity in this discussion today speaks volumes.
  7. Interesting that the GFS 12Z is sticking to its guns from earlier- with the high settling over the top of the UK as opposed to the west of us. I imagine this would mean a lot more sunshine for most, although not particularly warm and night time frosts could be a possibility.
  8. Let's hope the GFS 18Z is onto something, really hope we can be rid of this awful spell of north-westerlies here- similar to north-easterlies for the east, they are almost relentlessly dull and cold in these parts. The 18Z is an excellent run- there does seem to be a trend towards a more favourable position of the high pressure this morning for the UK. Fingers crossed the ECM comes on board later. Potentially some cold nights next week with warm afternoons for many if the high positions itself right over the UK.
  9. Nothing to me that suggests 'cold, cold, cold' in the reliable timeframe- looks at worst slightly below average for many, and not even below average further south. Pretty sure 15C is above average for London for this stage of April in fact.
  10. Yes the northern stations had more cloud on the 30th but had an exceptionally mild start with more cloud cover than further south- I imagine this was the case with Stonyhurst. A lot of places started at 13 or 14C first thing. It was also very mild up to midnight- it was still 15C in these parts.
  11. Am I missing something in terms of cloud amounts on Saturday? I know it's never easy to predict but the BBC seemed to be coming on board earlier suggesting sunshine, but now their 5 day forecasts are going for cloud again, even for SE England. Can fully understand the cloud at the moment and for the rest of the week with the NW flow coming round the top of the high but the charts seem to show a southerly developing in time for Saturday.
  12. The BBC still aren't having those temperatures for Saturday though- not quite sure why as the high looks in a favourable position for sunshine. 12C is showing for my area on the BBC website for Saturday. My friend is getting married in Shropshire on Saturday and keeps asking for weather updates- I keep telling him that it's going to be dry but not promising sunshine yet as the BBC/Met Office are not board at the moment!
  13. What about the rest of the run? You should work for one of the tabloids!
  14. That is a brilliant run from the GFS this evening if it's spring sunshine you're after- shades of March 2012 in those charts from Wednesday onwards- outside the reliable time frame yes, but all the models agree on a build of high pressure from Sunday- the question is, how will the high position itself and how long will it last. 850 hPa temperatures are nothing spectacular but they look good enough with the strengthening sun now.
  15. Agree with John, your posts are very negative and nit-picky a lot of the time it seems. And in fact the rain is shown over Cumbria and not much further south than that- very debatable whether that counts as NW England- it's not included in the north west news or weather reports.