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Scorcher

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  1. Not if it's cold enough, which it looks likely to be. Think about parts of the US where they get incredible amounts of lying snow at times- New York for example at 40 degrees latitude has stronger sun than here. Chicago at around 41 degrees north.
  2. Have no problem with you disagreeing with me, I just don't think it was fair to call it 'nonsense' as there is plenty of evidence there to back it up. No crystal ball here. The easterly may come off but virtually no one was mentioning the fact that there are also some mild charts showing, some of which are closer to being in the reliable than this supposed easterly, which appears to me to keep being put back.
  3. Thank you for your balance on this, only saying what I can see in the charts in the reliable time frame.
  4. Can you please justify calling what I said 'absolute nonsense'. I completely disagree. It may not come to pass but there ARE some springlike charts on show this morning. Here is an example, and this is for Sunday which is well inside the reliable: Monday: The temperatures for many parts of England and Wales are well above average for the time of year, and would certainly be in the 'springlike' category in my book. Any chance you could post some proper cold charts in the reliable time frame? If you're in the Scottish Highlands then I stand corrected. If you think my view is 'nonsense' then please post some charts to back up your point.
  5. I don't often follow the models during winter, but I personally think there is more to be positive about this morning if you want an early taste of spring. It seems a lot of people on here pick and choose which model they favour from day to day, simply because it shows the colder option. The GFS or ECM Ops are not showing anything cold at all to my eyes- in fact we get mild southerlies later on on the GFS run (not excessively so, however). The ECM does look very mild at times with more of a SW flow later on.
  6. 2012 was the notably warm March, widespread temperatures over 20C for a number of days. I don't think there was an SSW then though.
  7. More grim charts this morning- will the cold, wet weather from PM air masses ever end? I generally stay off here during winter but I would love some proper dry cold off the continent which has been so rare this winter so far, as opposed to this constant Atlantic muck. There really has been an incredible amount of heavy, cold rain which I don't recall happening to this extent before in previous winters. Surely very few of us benefit or have a desire for these sort of conditions? Maybe someone else can enlighten me on this as I don't really study the charts during winter, but I don't get where all the energy is coming from for all these cold storms- they seem to be originating from very far north as opposed to the usual origin of our storms further south in the Atlantic.
  8. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    A bit disappointing that it ended up outside the top 10 in the end. I think the coolness at the end of the month has disguised just how warm most of October was. The warm day on the 16th when it was 20C here at 9am will live long in the memory, especially with the strong winds that followed from Ophelia. A memorable month but one that had the potential to be even better- I wonder what sort of temperatures could have been achieved on the 16th had the warmest pulse of air hit the UK in the early afternoon rather than the morning.
  9. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Possibly, there's an argument for April too though. Most Aprils in recent times have been warm to very warm, and a few exceptionally so. Warm spells in April have become a lot more common than cold spells. It seems we are getting more warm spells in spring and autumn these days. Just a shame more of them don't seem to happen between May and August!
  10. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Picking and choosing there though- closer to the reliable time frame and the ECM isn't far off the GFS at the same stage for Thursday- Still a lot of exceptional warmth on offer over Spain which could well come our way with a very small adjustment to this chart.
  11. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The GFS 06z is almost as warm as the 00Z. I wouldn't disregard it at all. The odds are certainly favouring warmth for late next week and into the weekend.
  12. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    This chart is the best part of 2 weeks away...all I can see in the reliable time frame is continued warmth.
  13. Another lovely warm run from the GFS, looks like we will be back to warmth after the weekend

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. Tamara

      Tamara

       

      The atmospheric circulation has helped the patterns taken on a much more El Nino type shape at the moment more so than since mid July. Hence the downstream high pressure over Europe has returned and low pressure to the west. The models have tried to revert the pattern back to late summer/start of autumn default a couple of times with retrogressed heights in the atlantic and a cyclonic/unsettled pattern for us and into Europe.

      But bar Ophelia and the weekend low, next week shapes back to a similar pattern to where we have been - albeit very unlikely to be as warm as leading up to Ophelia and most changeable closer to the troughs running up to the NW of the UK..  The test in the 10 to 15 day period will be what happens to tropical convection - fairly high amplitude eastward movement sustains angular momentum and supports the suggested pattern - though heights increasing to the north west also a probably as the stratospheric vortex is displaced. But the cooler Pacific ENSO zone threatens abrupt end of MJO wave heading into Western Pacific and a revived Nina type response which would lead to a cool down and removal of heights to our east and augment the stratospheric signal for displaced heights to our west and trough into Scandinavia. Long way off at the moment in uncertain signals and consequent model output terms though.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Brilliant post, thank you. Well above my knowledge level!

    4. Tamara

      Tamara

      My garden plants, including palms. olives and figs are happy for some further mellow warm autumn weather, so they are hoping for more warm southerlies this month!

  14. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The ECM may be showing a cooldown in Eastern Europe for next week but the UK is still very much in the influence of the much warmer air from Iberia right up to the end of the run. In fact the cold air never really gets west of Poland or the Czech Republic on this run. Surprised some are suggesting cool nights- in such a warm air mass and with a fair breeze I can't imagine there will be anything notable at night time. This looks like a very good chart for some late warmth in fact- the source of the air is from the Med, and with France and Spain still very warm for the time of year we could well benefit. The trend for recent Octobers is for late warm spells rather than cold. We had similar charts last year that brought warmth towards the end of the month and very little in the way of cold nights.
  15. The BBC are again going to be proven wrong this weekend with conservative temperature predictions I believe- already 2-3C too low in a lot of areas today

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. reef

      reef

      I'm not really sure, but they often seem to go too low on maxima and too high on minima these days. It could be they aren't sure on cloud amounts.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Could be to do with cloud, but they've got 17C for here on Sunday- we've managed 19.3C on an almost completely cloudy day today with rain for much of the morning. Some places have reached 21C in cloudy conditions today.

    4. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      Knocker was giving me a lecture on temps however who looks who's going to be right.. :search:

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