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About Scorcher

  • Birthday 28/05/87

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  1. You referring to Scotland there? Glorious in Manchester today...27C so not too shabby
  2. It's like I was saying to someone the other day on here, the airmass is everything- the sun intensity is secondary. The very late 2011 spell showed that. And also exceeding 23C on Halloween in 2014 with very weak sun at that point.
  3. What an excellent run from the GFS- on this run the heat seems to intensify towards the weekend: Some dream charts here for heat lovers. Perhaps more thundery potential as well towards the weekend going by this run?
  4. I think you should change the word 'suspect' to hope in your case! While that trough stays to the west it's going to be very warm to hot I'm afraid.
  5. I'm not complaining but I'd prefer 24C at 8pm rather than 20/21C. The sunshine has been glorious but in an ideal world it would have been 3-4C warmer.
  6. It's been nice this week but too cool in the evenings if I'm being picky. Dew points ended up quite low which meant cool starts, cool evenings and nights and a generally quite fresh feel. It would be nice to be able to sit out until midnight without needing a jumper. Personally I prefer more humid weather for this reason.
  7. One thing's for sure, it certainly won't be cool next week with that trough setting up camp to our west. How warm is still open to question, but it's looking very promising, particularly the further south and east you are. It's looking like it could turn out to be a very warm second half of August- something we haven't seen for a long time.
  8. Very poor from the BBC missing this area of cloud this morning- it was forecast to be completely clear and we've had a spell of almost total cloud cover this morning. Looking at the satellite it appears to be from the North Sea and stretching just to the west of the Pennines- it will probably clear but very disappointing when you were expecting another clear, sparkling morning.
  9. Although it will not happen, it's basically just as feasible as it is on August 10th, when it happened in 2003. With the right synoptics it's definitely possible- it's getting them that's the issue and what makes it so unlikely. 35C+ has been recorded in September before and as we saw in 2011, 30C is possible right into the start of October. The 850 hPa temperatures are the crucial factor- the strength of the sun is secondary to this. There is still a lot of heat around on the Continent and the Med well into September and often beyond in most years.
  10. What a lovely day here, it's a bit breezy but mostly sunny and warmer than forecast at 20C already. As I suspected, the Met Office/BBC have overestimated cloud amounts today- I reckon it could be similar right through the weekend. They have also forecast temperatures too low for us in these parts, as I suspected when the sun appeared straight away this morning.
  11. You took the words right out of my mouth...I remember Wednesday 20th well. We had lots of hazy sunshine for most of the day and it ended up warmer than expected at 27C. This setup actually looks better than it did on that day.
  12. Today and possibly the next couple of days have summed up what's been wrong with this summer- high pressure too far south and cloud spilling over the top of it with W/NW winds. We have alternated between fresh (far too fresh- as another poster alluded to, I can't stand that word in summer!) and humid with warm nights but generally not outstanding temperatures by day. In NW England, westerlies are a really terrible direction in summer, and NW winds even worse. I imagine areas further south and east haven't done that badly over the last couple of days. The only comfort is that this summer has been better than the likes of 2007 with southerly tracking lows, which had no heat at all to speak of in these parts- at least we have had some and managed 30C, even if the hot spells have been very fleeting. Bring back the high dew points- at least we will get that if nothing else from the weekend onwards!
  13. Very interesting, thanks. Yes if the cloud cover charts there are to believed there would be significant clearing for most of us on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Also good clear spells south of Cumbria most of Friday. Monday looks clear for most according to those charts.
  14. By the way, here is the 850 hPa chart for Monday afternoon. If you go by the ECM 00Z you only see the charts for the middle of the night for that particular date- the warmer uppers are moving in overnight. Mid 20s is nailed on if that comes off for the north of England and higher further south.
  15. A slightly misleading post from a poster with a very appropriate name Going by GFS which has more precise timings (rather than just the ECM which has only one chart per day, albeit the best performing model overall), we can see the warm uppers arriving during the early hours of Monday, which will allow temperatures to reach comfortably above average values for most- even the BBC are suggesting this on the website already despite their usual caution until a couple of days before. The warm spell has actually been extended this morning by all of the major models- yesterday evening it looked like the heat would be swept away by Wednesday, but it's now looking like there could be another hot day for most of the UK. Perhaps it could be extended even further. There does seem to be some denial from those wanting it to stay cooler- as I said the other day, most of us who want warmer conditions would have bitten someone's hand off for these charts a week or so ago. It doesn't like there will be much 'cold comfort' on Tuesday night into Wednesday, that's for sure