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Scorcher

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About Scorcher

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  1. Picking and choosing there though- closer to the reliable time frame and the ECM isn't far off the GFS at the same stage for Thursday- Still a lot of exceptional warmth on offer over Spain which could well come our way with a very small adjustment to this chart.
  2. The GFS 06z is almost as warm as the 00Z. I wouldn't disregard it at all. The odds are certainly favouring warmth for late next week and into the weekend.
  3. This chart is the best part of 2 weeks away...all I can see in the reliable time frame is continued warmth.
  4. Another lovely warm run from the GFS, looks like we will be back to warmth after the weekend

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. Tamara

      Tamara

       

      The atmospheric circulation has helped the patterns taken on a much more El Nino type shape at the moment more so than since mid July. Hence the downstream high pressure over Europe has returned and low pressure to the west. The models have tried to revert the pattern back to late summer/start of autumn default a couple of times with retrogressed heights in the atlantic and a cyclonic/unsettled pattern for us and into Europe.

      But bar Ophelia and the weekend low, next week shapes back to a similar pattern to where we have been - albeit very unlikely to be as warm as leading up to Ophelia and most changeable closer to the troughs running up to the NW of the UK..  The test in the 10 to 15 day period will be what happens to tropical convection - fairly high amplitude eastward movement sustains angular momentum and supports the suggested pattern - though heights increasing to the north west also a probably as the stratospheric vortex is displaced. But the cooler Pacific ENSO zone threatens abrupt end of MJO wave heading into Western Pacific and a revived Nina type response which would lead to a cool down and removal of heights to our east and augment the stratospheric signal for displaced heights to our west and trough into Scandinavia. Long way off at the moment in uncertain signals and consequent model output terms though.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Brilliant post, thank you. Well above my knowledge level!

    4. Tamara

      Tamara

      My garden plants, including palms. olives and figs are happy for some further mellow warm autumn weather, so they are hoping for more warm southerlies this month!

  5. The ECM may be showing a cooldown in Eastern Europe for next week but the UK is still very much in the influence of the much warmer air from Iberia right up to the end of the run. In fact the cold air never really gets west of Poland or the Czech Republic on this run. Surprised some are suggesting cool nights- in such a warm air mass and with a fair breeze I can't imagine there will be anything notable at night time. This looks like a very good chart for some late warmth in fact- the source of the air is from the Med, and with France and Spain still very warm for the time of year we could well benefit. The trend for recent Octobers is for late warm spells rather than cold. We had similar charts last year that brought warmth towards the end of the month and very little in the way of cold nights.
  6. The BBC are again going to be proven wrong this weekend with conservative temperature predictions I believe- already 2-3C too low in a lot of areas today

    1. Show previous comments  3 more
    2. reef

      reef

      I'm not really sure, but they often seem to go too low on maxima and too high on minima these days. It could be they aren't sure on cloud amounts.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Could be to do with cloud, but they've got 17C for here on Sunday- we've managed 19.3C on an almost completely cloudy day today with rain for much of the morning. Some places have reached 21C in cloudy conditions today.

    4. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      Knocker was giving me a lecture on temps however who looks who's going to be right.. :search:

  7. As per usual, the BBC are not on board for anything exceptional over the weekend/Monday temperature-wise. They are going for high teens here and only around 20C in the London area. I would have thought that with the setup as it is, we would get a fair bit of sunshine over the weekend which would lift the temps higher than that.
  8. Amazing to see the 15C isotherm north of Newcastle on October 16th- this can't have happened too many times before!
  9. Some very warm looking charts for the time of year towards the end of the week. I think some may be underestimating what's possible temperature wise in mid October in the right setup. The ECM chart for Saturday looks better than the warm spell of mid October 2001, when temps widely were in the low 20s. Winds were relatively light during that spell too. On this occasion it looks like we may benefit from a warmer air mass than in 2001 too.
  10. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    It depends on your perspective though- many will be delighted about this turnaround. Not too often that the 2nd half of a cooling month like September ends up warmer than the first. It could well happen this time though. The first 20 days of the month have been for the most part miserable in these parts- rainy, windy and cold. There is plenty more time for cold, miserable autumnal weather so it's nice to have to chance to enjoy some relative warmth while it's still possible.
  11. Yes it's considerably less cold than it was, only slightly below average really. The Irish Sea, North Sea and the Channel are also average to above.
  12. Wow, had no idea it was quite that bad. It makes that result in Sharjah all the more remarkable as well given Pakistan's dominance in the UAE. One of those 3 wins was 17 years ago as well!
  13. There are plenty of players that have succeeded at the top level though with less than perfect techniques. Graeme Smith for example had massive deficiencies but succeeded nonetheless. It's all about playing to your strengths. I think Duckett could make it work for him with a few tweaks. Also critiquing his performance on the subcontinent in the winter is perhaps slightly unfair given that virtually all of the England batsmen struggled against spin in those conditions. I imagine Duckett would be a different proposition in English conditions or even Australian conditions with the ball coming onto the bat better. Agree about the spin issue though, there are no top quality spinners in county cricket to speak of. A couple have potential (Crane is one of them, also Matthew Parkinson the young Lancashire leggie) and Jack Leach who is a bit older.
  14. Duckett does open for Northants in all formats, and has a pretty good record across the board. I'm surprised he's been disregarded so much actually- 12 first class hundreds at the age of 22 is pretty good going. He's also someone who's capable of getting huge scores. His average is better than all the other openers that are being discussed at 41. Long term I can see him coming back in.
  15. I think we need a hurricane to plough through and disrupt the current pattern of the jet- this happened in August 2014 with poor results for the UK, but in all honesty it can't make things any worse right now.
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