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Scorcher

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  1. Agreed, it already looks like the cloud cover is breaking up more in the north and west than was forecast yesterday.
  2. Stonyhurst had a min of 16.1C overnight- shouldn't be hard to average over 20C for the 24 hour period with minima like that. You don't need a lot of 30C days in the north to get a high CET. Also we are still early in the month- still time for a more widespread hot spell with the continent being so hot.
  3. 1995 didn't have many really exceptionally hot days though. It was more consistently around the 30C mark. Pershore could well reach 30C tomorrow and Saturday and probably high 20s after that on Sunday and Monday.
  4. Only one of the stations is in Lancashire (Stonyhurst) and I believe it's the furthest north. With such a warm air mass the averages there will still be high. Cloud cover might suppress daytime maxima in that area but it will also mean some very warm nights. So I don't think that's a barrier to a very high CET. It also is looking consistently warm to very warm there for at least the next week so the next week is going to produce a very high average.
  5. So incredibly unlucky- you really couldn't make these scenarios up at times in the UK. You get exceptional 850 hPa temps in place and even that isn't enough...
  6. It's unusual for us to suffer North Sea muck in Manchester- it happens occasionally but it usually breaks up as it reaches the Pennines. The temp predictions by the GFS are not reliable at the best of times but they don't account for the Pennines very well in those setups IMO. ENE is not a terrible direction for NW England if that's what we do end up with next week. Mid 20s plus is possible with the air mass being so warm I think.
  7. This only looks an issue for the far north of England northwards though- the flow south of around Leeds is actually more from the continent I think.
  8. Yes looking good early next week. However the temperature charts on the GFS don't look too impressive- I'm struggling to work out why this might be? Seems to be a flow south of east to me for the southern half of the UK with a short sea track and with impressive uppers you'd expect better than the mid 20s.
  9. A really remarkable run from the ECM- one of the hottest ever seen? Even at the end of the run it's still hot for virtually the whole of the UK, although temperatures would have dropped back slightly at that point as the very hottest air shifts east. If this run came off, we'd surely be looking at the UK record going on Tuesday and possibly even 40C.
  10. The ECM is much better than the GFS but unfortunately the heat still only remains south of the Midlands on Saturday. Thankfully though it looks like there's a good chance it will quickly build back northwards from Sunday onwards. A really hot outlook for the South East and hopefully the rest of us further north will also join the party.
  11. I think most of us would have loved this chart a couple of weeks ago- however the hottest air has been pushed away from the UK. Seems like it would probably rebuild though after a day or two.
  12. It's only the GFS though- no point getting too disconsolate. The ECM and UKMO are much better for your area and still hot on Friday and Saturday at the very least. The GFS has been the odd one out for the past few days.
  13. Why am I not surprised?? If you're not convinced by this, you never will be. The signals could not be any better from the ensembles for another hot spell. The GFS op is gradually coming into line with the others now as well. The UKMO is spectacular at 144 hrs this evening- if that doesn't convince you I really don't know what will!
  14. Amazing to record the 3rd hottest day on record today...and the heat was also more intense over a wider area than forecast. Into the low 30s even across Northern England today. And to think some people on here were predicting we wouldn't go higher than 34C! The first rule in these kind of spells is always to expect temperatures to go higher than forecast. The synoptics were always there for something much warmer than 34C. A series of hot days beforehand is simply not necessary if the uppers are high enough- especially in this day and age.
  15. I'm not an alarmist but where is the evidence that the Earth is getting cooler? Surely if this was all down to air quality, the summer temperatures would have been higher in the early 19th century before the industrial revolution and cars, which we know is not the case.
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