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  1. Any cold would probably be shortlived in such a setup, as it was in 2008. Temperatures recovered very well that month after a colder spell mid-month with some very cold nights. I can't really see a setup like this developing anyway this month- the Atlantic was a lot less active in 2008 and with those deep lows to our west it's going to be hard to get a setup like that one.
  2. I can't see this unless something dramatic changes, I think it is going to very mild next weekend. Frost is never out of the question of course but in February temperatures can recover very well by day- we saw this in 2008 with some big diurnal ranges. Here is an example- this setup produced temps widely in the mid teens but also temps below freezing overnight. The ECM looks very mild indeed and looks like a southerly flow to me as opposed to SE. The setup being shown by the ECM is better than anything we saw in 2008 I think.
  3. Yes unfortunately for cold fans it's looking mild and benign virtually all the way this morning. There's a bit of a February 2008 feel from the GFS this morning. Although I would welcome an early taste of spring, I just hope if it does happen that we don't end up suffering for it later on as in 2008.
  4. Really? January, April and November were also well above average and August was also warmer than average. Cool months have been the exception rather than the rule this year, that's for sure. There can't have been many years with more warm months than this one. I will certainly remember it for being warm with the only real cold spells being in February and March.
  5. You will be a lot closer than most of the coldies that's for sure. If there's no adjustment you could even be within a degree.
  6. I wonder if we could just edge over 7.0C before corrections- today is very mild, one of the mildest days of the month. There are certainly going to be no falls before the end of the month.
  7. 7.0C is definitely not out of the question- it seems that it may well be a cloudy high which will keep minima up. Personally I think it will finish somewhere in the middle of 6.0C and 7.0C.
  8. Not taking pleasure in digs at all, this doesn't seem to happen with anyone else in here. I just take exception to some of the overly bold predictions that are cold biased. Most of the time they turn out to be incorrect, but when you are correct you make sure that everyone knows it. Maybe you did predict an above average month last month but you also predicted a large downward correction due to some mystery knowledge you indicated you had. There was actually an upward correction!
  9. Is it? Sounds like the prediction you made about below average last month. The outlook looks pretty mild to me now.
  10. The thing about the 'adjustment' is that the final figure is taken from a different set of stations than the running figure. Generally the set of stations used for the final figure produce a cooler CET than the running CET- in many ways the running figure is a very close estimate. Nothing to do with urban warming. I know this because I emailed the Met Office about it a few years ago. Interesting to get the rise after David Snow being so brazen and confident that there was going to be drop again. 8.3C is a lot warmer than many were predicting mid-month.
  11. Completely irrelevant, all I've said is it wasn't going to end up below average. All a lot of you have been posting is about 'how low it's going to go' in this thread for 2 weeks now. Well we had a rise yesterday! Quite impressive so late in the month.
  12. It was never going to happen I'm afraid, quite a few people were getting excited on here but the setup was never there to sustain the cold until the end of the month. It was the usual hysteria in the model thread that caused all the hopecasting. I said it all along that it wasn't going to be cold enough to take us below average.
  13. I said all along when the coldies were on here suggesting a below average month that this cold air just wasn't going to sustain itself until the end of the month. It hasn't been all the cold anyway over the past few days- we've only had one air frost here. Today is a beautiful day here and pretty mild. Next week we will probably have some days in the 'very mild' category before the month is out. The setup was never going to allow for a prolonged spell of really cold weather. Amazingly I even heard 2010 mentioned a few times in the model thread. This spell is not even in the same league as the second half of November 2010!
  14. Well well well, the first signs of the ECM backing down on a prolonged cold outlook? The 12Z run only really shows 2 cold days next week, with the high pressure slipping to our east eventually, allowing a warmer continental flow. Fingers crossed that this cold spell is a blink and you'll miss it affair.
  15. Scorcher

    Autumn 2018

    Not so much here...