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Scorcher

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    Manchester
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    Weather, football, cricket.

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  1. Not taking pleasure in digs at all, this doesn't seem to happen with anyone else in here. I just take exception to some of the overly bold predictions that are cold biased. Most of the time they turn out to be incorrect, but when you are correct you make sure that everyone knows it. Maybe you did predict an above average month last month but you also predicted a large downward correction due to some mystery knowledge you indicated you had. There was actually an upward correction!
  2. Is it? Sounds like the prediction you made about below average last month. The outlook looks pretty mild to me now.
  3. The thing about the 'adjustment' is that the final figure is taken from a different set of stations than the running figure. Generally the set of stations used for the final figure produce a cooler CET than the running CET- in many ways the running figure is a very close estimate. Nothing to do with urban warming. I know this because I emailed the Met Office about it a few years ago. Interesting to get the rise after David Snow being so brazen and confident that there was going to be drop again. 8.3C is a lot warmer than many were predicting mid-month.
  4. Completely irrelevant, all I've said is it wasn't going to end up below average. All a lot of you have been posting is about 'how low it's going to go' in this thread for 2 weeks now. Well we had a rise yesterday! Quite impressive so late in the month.
  5. It was never going to happen I'm afraid, quite a few people were getting excited on here but the setup was never there to sustain the cold until the end of the month. It was the usual hysteria in the model thread that caused all the hopecasting. I said it all along that it wasn't going to be cold enough to take us below average.
  6. I said all along when the coldies were on here suggesting a below average month that this cold air just wasn't going to sustain itself until the end of the month. It hasn't been all the cold anyway over the past few days- we've only had one air frost here. Today is a beautiful day here and pretty mild. Next week we will probably have some days in the 'very mild' category before the month is out. The setup was never going to allow for a prolonged spell of really cold weather. Amazingly I even heard 2010 mentioned a few times in the model thread. This spell is not even in the same league as the second half of November 2010!
  7. Well well well, the first signs of the ECM backing down on a prolonged cold outlook? The 12Z run only really shows 2 cold days next week, with the high pressure slipping to our east eventually, allowing a warmer continental flow. Fingers crossed that this cold spell is a blink and you'll miss it affair.
  8. Scorcher

    Autumn 2018

    Not so much here...
  9. Scorcher

    Autumn 2018

    Stunning day today, so nice to get some mild, sunny weather into mid-November. It really shortens the winter as far as I'm concerned. I find it hard to remember a better feeling day for warmth in mid November.
  10. Beautiful day- one of the best days I can remember in mid-November. 

    1. Tamara

      Tamara

      Yes, much of the human race will agree with that 🙂. At least away from the myopic ice age obsessed (and largely lacking in objectivity) hunt for cold model thread. 

      Some more nice days ahead this week - and which can be wholly relied on at a close time period🙂

       

    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Yes Tamara, nice to get the mild sunny days while we can. Plenty more time for the epic cold that many in the model thread are yearning for!

  11. If the GFS is correct tonight we are heading for a exceptionally mild first 20 days or so of the month. Minima will be high in the relatively strong southerly/southwesterly that is showing for much of the run, regardless of cloud cover. ECM maybe less so at the moment and could be cooler with a stronger high pressure influence. The BBC forecast is suggesting high minima here all next week, nothing below 7/8C between Monday and Saturday and 12-14C all week by day. I imagine it could get a bit higher than that towards the end of the week as well.
  12. I can't see many falls coming in the CET any time soon. Nights remaining relatively mild and possibly milder again by day next week. The first half of the month looks odds on to me to end up above average.
  13. I can't see the sort of charts that would bring the conditions you mention this morning. Charts such as this one from the ECM would bring mild, benign conditions with a direct southerly. There only needs to be a bit of breeze to stop the fog from forming: I agree it's not just about the uppers, but I can't see any strong areas of high pressure slap bang over the top of us that would leave us vulnerable to fog and suppressed temps.
  14. 93 days of 20C+ in Manchester this year. It has easily smashed 1976 and 1995 on this front.

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      I counted 131 at Heathrow, possibly more at the more built up stations such as London City Airport. And yes has there been a more persistently warm year than this one in terms of maxima? I highly doubt it.

    3. Scorcher

      Scorcher

      Manchester has had 34 days above 25C as well, almost identical to 1995 (32 I think). Heathrow 61 days above 25C. Also there has been an exceptionally long period between the first and last 25C this year, at least nationally.

    4. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      I must have had 140 odd very good summer started in April :) 

  15. Scorcher

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    Saturday was windy for most but far from autumnal- even when it was raining here in the morning it still felt warm and humid and almost tropical. 22C at Birmingham Airport as well which is certainly not a typical autumn temp. Friday was also in the high teens at least for most of England.
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