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Scorcher

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    Manchester
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    Weather, football, cricket.

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  1. This has got to be one of the warmest first weeks of August in a long time- has anyone got the 2003 figure? It was just into the second week in 2003 that the really exceptional heat kicked in. 1995 must have had a hot first week too.
  2. Was just about to comment, it's the best op run I've seen for ages. To be fair, the ops have been suggesting a high pressure build around mid-month for a while now, with a few small setbacks here and there. The ECM wasn't quite as encouraging for that this morning but it will be interesting to see what the 12z runs bring. I really feel that we haven't seen the last of the heat this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a more encouraging outlook later on.
  3. Amazing contrast with Manchester where 28C was reached today.
  4. Yes it's a hot one here today, unexpectedly so really. The afternoon has been quite sunny as well. The CET for the month will be very high after the first week, that's for sure. It won't take much after that to produce the warmest August since 2003.
  5. Yes I think it's important to remember though that around mid-July we had a very dodgy looking period when it looked as though we were heading for trough domination for a while. It never actually materialised in the end. I can see the point though about August's track record over the last few years. Also when things go downhill in early August it's a fact that there is less time for recovery before summer is out. It's possible summer could be over after next week, but I don't like to speculate too much- I'll cross that bridge when we come to it!
  6. Writing summer off in the first week of August is like writing winter off in the first week of February. Everyone knows some of the best cold spells come in the second half of February. As the 2nd half of February is to winter, 2nd half of August is past the peak of the season but it can still deliver the goods.
  7. Sunshine-wise it hasn't, but there have still been a number of very warm to hot days in the 2nd half of the month. And hardly any cool days I've noticed. At Rostherne near Manchester Airport there was only one maximum below 20C in the 2nd half of the month- and that day (28th) still exceeded 19C. 3 days in the 2nd half reached 29C+.
  8. Completely agree, I've been saying this for days now and a couple of people jumped on me for saying it. Dry and settled weather is still the form horse, and there is increasing consensus for this hot spell among the op runs this morning- I wouldn't be surprised if Wednesday ends up hot for most of the UK as well- we often tend to eek out another hot day in these plume type scenarios to what is originally modelled. ECM looking great throughout- a bit cooler after midweek but the Azores high seemingly keen to build in afterwards again. This summer is a long way from over. Write off Summer 2018 at your peril.
  9. A great run from the ECM- there's a good chance this settled weather could continue for some time. This summer isn't over by a long shot! Plenty to be positive about with a cracking weekend to come too. Fine and warm weather is still the form horse.
  10. I haven't accused you of saying anything in particular- where did I say anything about what you actually said? It was the tone and subject matter of your post that I thought could be misleading- it's about emphasis! I was aiming the comments more at Daniel in any case as I agree that you have discussed this weekend's heat in previous posts. I nearly always agree with you but I'm entitled to disagree from time to time.
  11. You'd think listening to you and Mushy tonight that there was nothing noteworthy at all coming in the next few days in terms of heat. Just to be clear to anyone who is not well versed in reading charts, there is some heat coming, especially further south. It won't be record-breaking but some of the temperatures in the south on Friday/Saturday would be the warmest of the whole year in a lot of summers! BBC going for 32C in London on Friday, and the GFS is showing 33C- we could still end up with some places reaching the mid thirties. Now that's hot by anyone's standards. We didn't get near that in the whole of the summer of 2007. Hot in the south until Monday at least. Funny how this amazing summer has skewed people's perceptions.
  12. Scorcher

    June 2012 worst ever summer month?

    2012 had some hideous months...April was absolutely awful as well. May was saved by a stunning last week or so but had been very cold before that. The autumn was also chilly. The only thing I remember fondly that year is the stunning and exceptional March.
  13. Thankfully the westerlies seem to be a lot warmer than usual this summer. With sunshine many could be still looking at the mid 20s and possibly a bit higher further south. In a normal summer we'd be delighted with what these charts are showing.
  14. Not so sure about that. I'd have agreed with you before 2016, but given that 34.4C was recorded on September 12th 2016, you'd imagine that 3 weeks earlier the same setup might have broken the record. I still think the second half of August has potential for some very high temperatures this year, especially with the warm SSTs and hot continent.
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