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Jayces last won the day on August 24 2011
Jayces had the most liked content!
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South Norwood, London
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Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Jayces replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
TEITS Let's hope for a less drastic option than that last one to get some of the white stuff, can't imagine many rushing here to celebrating copious amounts of the 'S' word during a nuclear winter! On a more serious note, I'm sure there will be lots of post Winter analysis, but one thing I'm personally wondering as our changing climate has been mentioned is do the computer models get regular updates with regard to how they calculate their runs once they've been initialized? For example, every year we measure the Atlantic SST's, and they change each year but are trending up, is that sort of data adjusted in the computer models annually or do they have a set of historical data they refer to that hasn't been changed for years? Obviously I've no idea how they work, maybe this is a starting parameter they enter so no need to update them? -
I guess it depends on who you listened to? I'm pretty sure none of the seasoned regulars were suggesting this, but happy to be proven wrong. My experience over the years, especially in winter when looking for the white stuff, is anything beyond 2 -3 days is just for fun and subject to change. Even then, it's still not guaranteed, but less likely to go pear shaped at that range. My advice, if there is another chase starting up, enjoy the chase and what could be but don't take anything as the most likely outcome until it's under 48 hours, you're less likely to be disappointed then.
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Red alerts are reserved for extreme scenarios for when confidence is very very high and impact government action, services and potentially cost money so they won't ever (that I've seen) be issued more than a day in a advance if that. There isn't anything in the output currently that I've seen that meets that criteria.
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Too late for that, everywhere's already sold out of sledges and snow shovels
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I've been following dramas on here since 2006 and trust me we certainly can hide from that 'fact' as it's 10 days away and like many on here have seen things go wrong at 24 hours so I wouldn't get too concerned at changes at that timeframe as no doubt it will change again in 6 hours time. My advice, if you don't want an emotional roller coaster is take anything beyond 48 - 72 hours with a large pinch of salt as small details will change in that time frame that can (and usually do) have a big impact down the line. I've just seen you've been here even longer than me so you must be no stranger to how often model output a week away in the winter changes for us
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Jayces replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I see the classic annual emotional roller coaster in the hunt for cold (and snow) has returned to this thread as the output changes almost daily. Best advice I've ever gotten on here (if you want to keep your sanity) especially for winter weather in the UK is take anything beyond 48 - 72 hours with a large pinch of salt because of it can change then it will (and seems a regular occurrence for the UK). -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Jayces replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 6th of December is two weeks away, a lifetime in weather modelling. My years of lurking here have taught me, especially in Winter, things can (and have) changed within 24 hours so I'd take anything 2 weeks away with a huge pinch of salt. -
Don't forget the stupid teenager *raises hand* who went out at the height of the storm in the early hours of the morning to witness it first hand. Yeah it was insane, walking through a local forest, witnessing the true power of the wind, listening to trees toppling and being in awe until a branch hit me on the head (I was okay luckily) knocking some sense into me that I really shouldn't be there! A very memorable night but yes as much as I love severe weather I'd rather have everyone safe and hope people are sensible, heed warnings and take care tomorrow.
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Jayces replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can't help thinking I read a variation of this every year from you Nick when something promising on the wintery front shows up. There's always a shortwave here or shift in a different direction there! I'm looking forward to a surprise post along the lines of oh that all went really smoothly, enjoy the snow all Still early days, winter has just started and no need for folks to throw on the towel just yet, the building blocks seem to be falling in place for an early taste of wintery weather for some. -
Major Hurricane Ian.
Jayces replied to matty40s's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
An hour later and he's on the cusp of CAT 5... -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Jayces replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Toasty. WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Jayces replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Kind of surreal that the UK temp record may be broken on Monday and that record broken the very next day. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Jayces replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I thought that's what I said, apologies if not. To be clear as things come into the reliable any changes in time frame reduces as far as delays are concerned because we have more info to make more accurate forecasts. As for further delays to this event, the Met Offie have just updated their heat warning to include Monday now so I'm going to have to defer to what they're are seeing on their models and human experts input as to whether this will be delayed to the end of next week, somehow I think not but I guess we'll know this time next week. Whatever happens, everyone needs to be careful and look after themselves and others as evena week of plus 30 temps will not be nice. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Jayces replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
These are forecasts based on highly advanced computer models doing their best to produce possible outcomes of a very complex global weather and climate system which in turn is impacted by a multitude of other factors. They aren't guaranteed predictions. The fact that two weeks before the potential event this was forecast is a credit to the science behind the computer models. That forecast was on the 30th for the 14th (two weeks later), now it's on the 12th for the 17th / 18th (5/6 days time). It is getting refined as it comes into the reliable window, that's weather for you. Extreme weather events are hard to forecast and we should be grateful that hints of this upcoming event were known about two weeks ago as it has allowed at least some sort of preperation for different agencies. Personally I am fascinated by the prospect of 40 degrees (if not this time, some time soon in the future no doubt) but also terrified at the same time of what this means for the future. I (and many I am sure) prefer maybe 20 - 25 as a comfortable temp so not enjoying the last couple of days and not looking forward to next week either really. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Jayces replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is that an error your end where it says May at the bottom of the graph or am I reading it wrong?