pyrotech
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Posts posted by pyrotech
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Although i took a lot of flack for presenting a forecast that high pressure was more likely for UK second half of August.
Here i go again.
The MJO is the main driver that has been out of sync for us to get at least some form of summer. There are other factors driving it including the move of ENSO towards El Nino from a triple dip La Nina.
The MJO forecast charts are no different from any other forecast. However consensus has been very evident of a phase somewhere between 5 and 7.
The charts are now showing subtle hints that the forecast may be correct and a glimmer of hope will be here for those wanting just a hint of summer.
The discussion about North / South split
It is a very likely scenario at this time of year, due to other teleconnections and influences on our Jet stream.
However i feel, looking at the evolution of the changes in the Atmosphere that for a time this will be an all UK high, not just South. Call that a hunch if you like.
Sea temperatures in North Atlantic are the big anomaly and that will effect just how amplified the jet stream is and how long that bit of summer lasts.
I expect hints of this to show up on GFS sometime over the weekend coming as the middle of August gets into its timeframe.
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9 hours ago, Derecho said:
How can you say it 'will go into phase 6' based on that chart? There is such a huge amount of uncertainty there.
Looking at the 18z GFS OP, it isn't as bad for next week. Not a washout at least and better then recent output.
The consensus is phase 6 and has been for a week. Phase 5 and 7 would also give higher pressure closer to North West Europe.
Right now and for the last 7 days models have indicated the likelihood of phase 6 as a forecast.
Spagetti charts play around with phase 5 and 7 and that is what you would expect if 6 is forecast.
The Models here on Netweather should pick up this trend at the end of their runs (15 +10 day forecast) ( GFS around 26th July and ECM around 2nd August)
Thats due to the lag between MJO and effects here.
There is always uncertainty in the charts, GFS, ECM and UKMO its why we discuss them here.
In this case, i would be more worried about how far it gets into the phase, if we get out of the COD we really could do with getting a little more distance from it indicating a stronger phase.
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10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
The caveat being that as we progress through August the long wave base state starts to change regardless. Even summer 2007 relented somewhat during August as the pack was shuffled.
I suspect that the NW of the UK may see scant change at all, even if areas further S in the UK start to dry out and warm up somewhat.
Unfortunately a North West / South East split is very common at this part of summer, so on that score you are probably right, we will have to wait for GFS and then ECM to decide the orientation of the high, which although More likely to ridge into the South, it may sit right on top of us bringing a taste of summer to all. It is a wait and see at this timeframe but that phase 6 at least gives us all a chance. In the next week or so the models should start hinting at a scenario
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The models are showing exactly what you would expect them to show. This unsettled period has been on the cards and shown by the MJO prediction.
We will see an improvement as the MJO will go into phase 6 early August so around 10th of August high pressure is highly likely around North West Europe.
I am quite surprised at some of the more seasoned posters on here as they understand the MJO.
This is a main driver of our weather and watch the models respond to this as we head towards August.
We have been in the wrong phases and in the Circle of death for July and finally looking to break free with the 10 - 14 day lag for us in UK
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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Looks about the same to me
Thats around 80 miles further South
Thats also using same model and same time, also utilising same model run 24 hours apart.
That is the best method of comparing model runs.
It does not guarantee cold but certainly shows the trend is again towards the low trying to get pushed further South, plus the cold following suit.
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Hopefully Para is finally getting it right
That would be perfect, even jay would be happy with that
✻✻✻
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47 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Got my snow fix watching Cardiff v Rotherham lol, hammering down with snow there.
And a win !
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Brady pretty much sums things up
The met office model which we do not see as public, is still showing some Snow Friday into Saturday but becoming rain later, in fact whole South UK in the less cold air before Wednesday, however it is also changing the output on each run.
The warm air is initially likely to flow over the colder more dense air but that does two things, one it cools the warm air allowing some precipitation, but also the colder dryer air will start to kill off the precipitation. Some areas could see freezing rain for a time.
Models certainly going wrong way after initially pushing a classic breakdown back, it now looks like a damp squib with transient snow if lucky for many.
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For me its not the low thats the problem, the Azores high ridges to try to join up with the Scandi high. That blocks the jet Stream.
Without that we may have had a corridor allowing slider lows. So close but no cigar for Far South and West UK.
Little bit envious of those on the East UK
Then we have possibility that the Scandi high moves South East. I am guilty of relying on the MJO phase to hold the high in position, and eventually travel westwards, but other drivers overcome the lagged effect of MJO, but for how long?
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GFS keeps us mainly dry but looks perfect to maintain cold, except it squeezes the Scandinavian high into Greece, that would be goodbye winter hello Spring, however its just another option. I say that because its against the MJO, so it would be a strong push by the low to force that, not impossible but just another of 100s of evolutions. Something we can say we are used to at the moment is models that can not handle the current synoptics.
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Met office Model, shows snow Friday, 3 hours. Then Snow Saturday that becomes Marginal later as heads towards London and decays. Seems cold may be fighting back late Sunday but close call, temps 3 - 5 c on this run late Sunday near M4 belt. It looks like a slow push East that goes nowhere, this is too tight to call .
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Looks like few Cm's and maybe fair bit more but at this time with so much uncertainty lets just talk about potential.We do not need hopes raised at this time. it looks very likely we will see snow as Atlantic attempts breakdown, problem is if transient or not,
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Yep , looks okay, Some snow, just need keep the cold into next week for longevity
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Icon is playing with an idea fairly similar to UKMET hi res
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22 minutes ago, goosey007 said:
A good read thanks ....8 degrees for Monday on bbc dampens my enthusiasm into next week ...
Its one model run, i can assure you every run Met Office model shows is different just like ECM and GFS, trust me i have just checked.
However even latest run gives snow Friday and Saturday.
They are holding back from decisive forecast for the end of the week in general and when mentioned they talk about potential snow and uncertainty.
Thats what model shows, different timings and extent for potential snow.
If the forecast for Friday is not decided, what does it say about forecast for Monday?
It says that current prediction (latest run) is one of many possibilities.
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Remember folks
We have no issues getting Precipitation here in Wales, its cold we struggle to get.
We have the cold and it will be difficult to move.
Breakdowns are our best option and Storm Emma was an attempted breakdown.
Models have hinted at a transient snow followed by rain even, now hinting at extending the cold instead. So we can not only see opportunity extended, but also chance of multiple attempt at failed breakdowns. Nothing is nailed on by ANY model including Met Office hi rez.
This can still be a very good even where everywhere in UK will have seen significant snow
Scotland ❋
East England ✻
Very good chance that South West and Wales will get it soon ✻
Central England follows ✽
Now with that as a fair possibility i would say its better outlook than all of last winter
Patience Friends
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21 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Wednesday yellow updated .To amber Thursday.
I can not see amber on Wednesday or warnings for Thursday
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27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Yes Scott then phase 8/1 for complete retrogression for a northerly afterwards,all roads lead to cold at the moment,lets see if w can get the second bite of the cherry from 192 the a third one later on,seems plausable but don't take my word for it lol
BTW,i hope that your mother is doing OK mate
Wow guys really looking ahead, thats next weekend for phase 8 and 24th for effect
Although phase 6 is Scandinavian blocking 7/8 in Greenland blocking and into phase 1 is Atlantic taking over.
With the lag effect we do have a fortnight plus of opportunity with Easterly then most likely Northerly and if we get that far it can have its phase 1, i know thats forecast but in all honesty i see phase 8 into COD, but we will see.
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5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Is there any support for this kinda scandi high from the mjo and other background signals?!!
Yes phase 7 on 26th Jan, into phase 6 and now heading into Phase 7 again, been 12 days since entered phase 7/6 which is right for influence Northern hemisphere. Discussed this few days back, Why models seemed to go with stronger jet due to temp contrast over USA and seemed to ignore effect of MJO. Seems models caught up now.
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5 minutes ago, DisruptiveGust said:
No point looking for trends from the GFS atm especially the OP.
00z
06z
Especially trying to compare Apples v Pears
Trends show comparing 0z v 0z or 06z v 06z
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- Popular Post
Its quite funny on here watching emotions throughout the day
People really do not seem to grasp that almost every day they despair at 12z then party balloons for the 18Z
Compare apples with apples, last nights 18z with tonights 18z will give the change trending. Not 12Z v 18Z
There are subtle improvements, which if each run continues to improve would bring more snow to more areas and prolong the cold spell.
The trend is your friend, but you need compare equivalent model run
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Hi Andy, yes a dusting at least, then later in Week heavy snow, but will it turn to rain later or stay as snow is the big question
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Anyone noticed that the model thread has become the South East regional thread.
Do not talk about West UK whatever you do, get hounded lol
Weekend looking okay here in Wales but i am not seeing lots of Snow.
Wednesday look interesting, but hope the fronts push in and then stall before retreating again.
I am not a fan of transient snow, so hopefully some ideas by models and indications by Met O, that this could happen does happen.
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10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
This reflects my own opinion on the likely way forward
Put simply in this period we have 1 force competing against two.
In the mild corner (1)- The SPV wants to chuck a lobe of the vortex over America and the atlantic firing up the jet
In the cold corner (2) We have a stangnant highly amplified signal in phase 7 which eventually moves to phase 8 of the MJO AND we have a spike im AAM due to peak around the 13th of the month.
Option 1 is flat option 2 encourages further height rises both over Griceland and Scandi.
All winter the models have showm to underestimate momentum and tropical signals until within 120.
Its around 168-210 the breakdown is shown to occur.
If my own logic is correct in two days time friday 12z i expect to see models prolonging the cold and either strong wedges or heights pushing the atlantic energy under prolonging the easterlies or creating battlegrounds in a favourable manner
A well put post that highlights the conundrum. I agree that MJO is the most likely to overwhelm the SPV, but any ideas why the models have such a poor comprehension regarding this battle. I would suggest MJO influence is not accountable in output and the models are at times reverting to "normal" intensification with out the MJO effect or they believe that the contrast is great enough to displace the blocking MJO would normally build with strength.
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
We forecast in March that 2023 would be similar to 2018 in regards to wildfire (UK)
Normal years see wildfire season between late March and late May.
We forecast a very quiet season in those times - which include the Easter holidays.
Similar to 2018, we forecast that June would be the prolonged wildfire season this year.
Exactly what has happened, so although some key differences - in many ways 2023 is similar to 2018