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pyrotech

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pyrotech last won the day on March 30 2011

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  1. Too many factors Firstly MJO would indicate with its phase 14 days ago that high pressure should push to our NorthEast SSW should push everything Westwards - so a contrast here between two major drivers. A solar wind combined with a CME will hit the Earth tomorrow effecting the Poles, So already some major factors which will all effect output In addition we have the winds at higher altitude reversing and this is moving lower in the atmosphere, timing can vary, as can the strength. In addition where is everything in the troposphere when winds reverse. All that on top of everything else that the computers normally have to deal with. The data higher up will be less than at the surface for higher resolution, so these big changes higher up will be less well recorded and due to the SSW being a less common event, the data inputted will be less good. I mean by that, that the data to move forwards is less well known by human computer data to compute it, plus we have less data from previous SSW events for the computers to learn how to deal with it. The best thing for the computers is a positive NAO as it has more data over more time to understand small implications
  2. What that actually shows is that day 5 we have wide scatter, day 7 and its about as wide as you can get From plus 9 too minus 13 What its telling us is that the uncertainty starts in quite a big way, at day 5. Why? Well we do not see a reversal at 30mb until 18th - which is 4 days away Huge difference in where it goes depending on very small difference in atmosphere when it actually does reverse, Few hours earlier or later, slight difference on positions of the high and low's. Orientation of the high. Even then we are waiting for the reversal lower down. Until then all the models will play with different ideas. The data is run from the point its taken and under normal conditions its fairly predictable, With this its a different ball game. There is no default as such, but the models are trying as always to predict what will happen, but with an added ingredient in the mix that increases the shannon Entrope. We will have this until 17th at least and maybe after 22nd until the models finally get a idea of what is most likely. we just have to be patient and try not to get excited or disappointed on each run. Trends will become the most useful guide as we head into that period, Current trend is High pressure moving North . You should also notice on that chart a very important feature and that is that the mean is lower than the long term mean. That hints that it will be colder than average.
  3. Catacol I see MJO as now moving into phase 3 not in a weeks time but imminent. I also see Phase 3 as being the Catalyst for Increasing the NAO towards positive but around 14 days later so for me something rather more mobile around 23rd january Here is what ECM say about it too Time lag (days) • The probability of a positive phase of the NAO is significantly increased about ten days after the MJO is in phase 3 (phase 3+10 days), and significantly reduced about ten days after the MJO is in phase 6 (phase 6+10 days). • The probability of a negative phase of the NAO is reduced about ten days after the MJO is in phase 3 (phase 3+10 days), and increased about ten days after the MJO is in phase 6 (phase 6+10 days). I disagree with the 10 day as my data shows few days longer but the rest seems fairly accurate. Obviously we have other drivers that can alter this but around 22nd i would expect very little blocking over Europe. Prior to this i would expect a period where systems move from our North West to South East as we move from the blocked pattern to a mobile pattern. At same time the AO may move into a negative. The MJO Looks likely to move towards phase 5 by 21st - 24th January which brings opportunities for European blocking around 1st / 2nd week of February Hope you do not mind me saying this and having a open discussion on thoughts on MJO, as i feel best progression is when members discuss these things and learn from each others data and experience - so its possible i am wrong but this is where we learn
  4. I use research documents from ECM I also keep records of MJO and effects over Europe Its good, but occasionally things do the opposite to expected, i believe other factors like SSW and PV sometimes makes it go opposite to as expected, Even when we expect a high pressure to sit at X for example its strength, orientation and exact location can make the NAO less blocked or more so. 6 days ago we were in phase 8 and so blocking likely by 7th Jan or thereabouts but with the MJO moving thru phase 1 and 2 expect it to last around 5 to 7 days where NAO fires up. Research says 10 days for effects over Europe, but my data suggests that must be for first sign of effects as it seems to be more like 12 - 14 days when actual effect takes place. So Nao may start to change day 10 but change more full or complete by day 12/14 But just my take on it and goes somewhat against research from ECM
  5. No positive NAO, with Phase 3 Time lag (days) • The probability of a positive phase of the NAO is significantly increased about ten days after the MJO is in phase 3 (phase 3+10 days), and significantly reduced about ten days after the MJO is in phase 6 (phase 6+10 days). We do of course have other drivers which can enhance or mitigate the MJO effect
  6. This is rather interesting thou with 10hpa temperature rising quickly over the last few days We were in COD 12 days before this really started
  7. The MJO has traversed the all important phase 6 and is now in a moderate phase 2, However on getting to this we had a period in COD This should equate to Scandi high staying in place for a little longer and maybe strengthen a little. The issue is we are quickly heading into a fairly strong phase 3. The NAO should there fore fire up and by 17th of January the Scandi high pushed further North and East At that point we will see a more Atlantic driven scenario and less cold. To get there we see a transient period with us often on the north side of the Jet, This effected by the High. Around 14th january the effects of MJO phase 1 and 2 start to allow the Azores high to nudge Northwards with the jet running along the top. This also coincides with Siberian High moving North and East Those looking for something wintry will see opportunities between now and 13th and then start to see the Less Cold Atlantic Attack. We are also then heading rather quickly towards Phase 6 again and i suspect around 20th we will be back in that region (Western pacific) This leads nicely in to February around the 4th for another opportunity for wintriness The biggest challenge is do we have a moderate phase 4 and 5 to get there or will it be via the COD and will the phase 6/7 be strong enough. The MJO was in phase 5, 10 days before the snow that many had around 10th December so the less cold period may be rather short lived. The NAO appears to agree with that analysis too but as always time will tell
  8. It does in deed, i might have a look at some old charts for comparison, I know as Brecon beacons used to get back edge snow and would rarely go more than a day or so with the last snow drifted in a ravine, before next snow fall, its been similar this year for first time in 25 years. We also see similar pattern with backedge snow. There was an interesting theory about a mini ice age in 2030 on sky news today regarding magnetic waves from the sun, i currently only understand the sun spot cycle. Models are throwing up some interesting weather towards NYE and beyond into fi It used to be said in 70s and 80s when USA had big snow we get it 10 - 14 days later, that not happening yet but i wondering if that was MJO related
  9. I think your more technical than i am on MJO, but on this occasion i think your wrong I think we have enough from phase 7 and the little weak phase 8 to bring something wintry, not widespread snow but more than a little back ed ged stuff and possibly to levels 100m and lower. Moderate phase 7 allowing strong Siberian high pressure to cause a blocking pattern that sends low pressure South East across the UK. I admit its not going to bring the perfect conditions that would be a very strong Siberian high that brings Easterlys to the UK thou, Perhaps i am reading your post wrong thou, and its the Easterlies that you mean when you say a poor performance for cold as yes it does not look to bring that kind of deep cold
  10. There is a lag of around 2 weeks, i actually use 10 days for pattern change / effect over Europe, the official line i think is a bit quicker but following the phases i find 10 -14 days more accurate. Phase 7 there fore , with me has effect 1st week of jan and should bring some wintriness. I follow 3 experts on here and their input is invaluable with MJO, but also use my own analysis So answer is yes a lag, but time line may differ from mine Plus no such thing as noonish question, we are all learning and better to ask than never know the answer
  11. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Blizzseet down in penalty
  12. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    More likely it will return in South as Snow about 2pm may be bit earlier but pretty much all over by 7pm tonight - then ice overnight
  13. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Sorry jay. i must be ten mins behind you, heavy snow here now too
  14. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Seriously St Fagans , Culverhouse cross its all sleet
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