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pyrotech

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    climatology oceanography and meteorology

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  1. All night Jay Probably lighter in Cardiff etc around 2am but lasting till 6am in heads of valleys Then still snow showers in morning
  2. Really heavy now in Cardiff, roads where it would not settle are now completely white after just a few minutes
  3. Firstly you should remember that every computer predicted the snow. ICON, GFS ECM Euro4 not just Met Office computer. Secondly, the temperatures are very close to freezing, in fact at 5pm A48 was at 0c So dangers are, snow falling on roads washes away the rock salt, leaving wet roads that could freeze between council salt runs. That very dangerous for commuters. So already we had a risk and i would suggest with winds some mountain roads are currently treacherous, Thats why Rhigos and other mountain rds in that area have been closed. The disruption MAY be less than originally thought, however thats just for here. Cornwall have had stranded vehicles and areas in the Amber warning have had significant snow so although IMBY it may not be bad it does not mean for others its not either. The front is likely to stall and then decay from the East but a few Cms are still likely to fall overnight. A lot of schools will be closed tomorrow, especially in valley areas is most likely. The snow did ease for many and that could be seen as a hole on the radar, but for many is South East wales this is not over yet and although not huge amounts in low areas, some higher areas may still see over 3 inches of snow. Side rds will be dangerous with black ice, snow and frozen crushed snow all probable in morning. P.s still snowing steadily in Cardiff and these last two winters have at least given us a snowfall with some interest. Winters in excess of two years ago being more about cold rain and flooding. Enjoy the snowfall and stop worrying about how much, worst case scenario is you travel to a hill to have a play in snow tomorrow.
  4. The reason No Amber Warning yet, is the likelihood for any particular localised area. Today a Amber is very likely, but until now plenty of scope for worst hit area to move North or South Amber warnings are not just given out like a free gift. They need careful consideration. The Yellow has been waarning the public that snow likely. If Amber then organisations have plans to follow Schools may automatically shut Councils have to set plans Emergency service plans like Police will be initiated So an Amber has very signifigant implications that most people never know about. Nothing has changed and the forecast is close to as forecast, maybe slightly South so Coastal areas seeing snow later too
  5. Looking at all the model runs, Wales is in the sweet spot. GFS - takes it further North , but Wales gets a few hours of snow, especially inland, some snow for Cardiff and Coastal areas but this model suggests sleet later ECM keeps it all further South, This keeps all of Wales in line for Snow for most of the day Met Office model, shows due points perfect south of Wales and a sustained period of snow In addition, winds are a brisk Easterly, helping to keep temperature low and blowing any lying snow into drifts I suggest heads of the valleys etc will see disruption and many school closures This is the one time where a little further North or South still leaves most of Wales in the firing line, just where i am is dubious with those dew points according to GFS, but some areas would still see 10cm of snow further North, valleys etc.
  6. This is one of those scenarios where a little elevation will help The 850MB temps are marginally on the right side The dew points are going to be close, so those near the Bristol Channel may lose that factor for a time Evaporative cooling where heavy precipitation falls will bring snow line lower. So its all eyes on where that low tracks but i think if anywhere near as forecast, Hills of valleys will see snow heads of valleys and some parts of Powys may be a sweet spot Cardiff and Southern Coastal areas a mainly sleet and wet snow event, with more snow at times. Small corrections will of course change this, possibly bringing snow to lower levels but right now some margins are very knife edge Lets get Tuesday out the way before considering Thursday in any depth, however a second bite of the cherry looks possible. So somewhere in Uk may see something a little disruptive, France will see a very snowy 24 hours and this heads towards the Alps where with different temperature profiles over last few days - this extra layer of snow may increase the avalanche risk significantly.
  7. They may have, but 06z normally has about 8-10% more aircraft data - less data in some other areas thou
  8. Not really The 06Z has the most commercial aircraft data, which is very useful for air temperature and pressure. Many flights leave USA for Europe and arrive in UK between 6am and 10am, the data they send prior to 6am is between Ireland and USA East Coast. So its a bit like horses for courses. The fuller the all round data the better
  9. The start data is different and the Par is showing data as slower than GFS. i.e a low by Iceland is further West etc. It also has wider -5 850mb temperatures to our West. If you compare the two by opening two windows you can see that change. interesting that soon it will be operational and the main source. So you would suspect they will tweek it as it runs now to become more accurate. Thats of course if its not already accurate. Anyone compared it with ensembles to see if it running close to one of those
  10. Thats just for the build up to the French coming to Twickenham, they always send a cockerel over a ten days before
  11. For me, i am more interested in the trend in those Surface pressure charts. The Azores High is trying to strengthen and push North West on the 3 runs. The original poster is more concerned with the USA low so will let them explain that. However i suggest Exeter see the high at least attempt to ridge North towards the Artic, One to watch
  12. Let's get things in prospective. Firstly new readers and posters may benefit from reading some of the seasoned and expert contributors posts that will point you in right direction and stop disappointment or over excitement between model runs. I can not name them all, so to name just one John Holmes i believe may still have access to his blogs that will point you in right direction. The models themselves, No model is trying to catch up with another, they get data inputted and then data analysed to provide complicated output. ECM data will not change because they saw what UKMO or GFS data said, or vice versa. GFS : This model i have found to often pick up a trend early, drop it and then return to it. This is what you look for in fi, trends. Anything else is consideration only. Another good way to look at models is to study changes of same run, 18z with 18z etc This gives greatest clues to what the models are working from and evolution. Then the different run times to see why they choose to be different. A major chart to use is 500mb chart this gives a huge hint. There is a lot of Shannon entropy in forecasts by the models now due to complicate teleconnections. The MJO has been in right phase. The SSW has taken effects and continues too. Dew points will be a nightmare to forecast as soon as Tuesday next week. Its two soon to say if a model has been consistently right or wrong but i suggest almost all have played with something that will be close to the truth at some stage. The problem is which models and when. Mean while cold outlook is suggested by most models and some less cold interludes possible. Prior to last winter most of us would be happy with the opportunities the models are hinting at, and not just the stellar ones 24 hours ago.
  13. I think the clue that some of you are looking for is in the ECM tonight. This model is doing what i would expect with the MJO phase today, the effects in ten plus days time. What should happen as the MJO moves through phase 6 into 7 is we should see the high pressure try to move North east over the UK and into Scandinavia. This is what i see the ECM trying to do. Whilst the SSW is a starting block for Northern Hemisphere cold, its the MJO phase that includes us in the party, if we get the invite. If you look at the latest ECM you can see fairly clearly the attempt to Move the high. Still plenty that can go wrong but We have the disruption and split of the vortex and we have the MJO move towards a more favourable phase. Personally i use 12 days as a good average between any phase and the effect in North west Europe, If we get the High in place, we certainly will have a lot of cold air to tap into. Not added images as you can see yourselves on the ECM model charts
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