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pyrotech

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pyrotech last won the day on March 30 2011

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  1. Hopefully Para is finally getting it right 😂 That would be perfect, even jay would be happy with that 😂 ✻✻✻ ☃️
  2. Brady pretty much sums things up The met office model which we do not see as public, is still showing some Snow Friday into Saturday but becoming rain later, in fact whole South UK in the less cold air before Wednesday, however it is also changing the output on each run. The warm air is initially likely to flow over the colder more dense air but that does two things, one it cools the warm air allowing some precipitation, but also the colder dryer air will start to kill off the precipitation. Some areas could see freezing rain for a time. Models certainly going wrong way after
  3. For me its not the low thats the problem, the Azores high ridges to try to join up with the Scandi high. That blocks the jet Stream. Without that we may have had a corridor allowing slider lows. So close but no cigar for Far South and West UK. Little bit envious of those on the East UK Then we have possibility that the Scandi high moves South East. I am guilty of relying on the MJO phase to hold the high in position, and eventually travel westwards, but other drivers overcome the lagged effect of MJO, but for how long?
  4. GFS keeps us mainly dry but looks perfect to maintain cold, except it squeezes the Scandinavian high into Greece, that would be goodbye winter hello Spring, however its just another option. I say that because its against the MJO, so it would be a strong push by the low to force that, not impossible but just another of 100s of evolutions. Something we can say we are used to at the moment is models that can not handle the current synoptics.
  5. Met office Model, shows snow Friday, 3 hours. Then Snow Saturday that becomes Marginal later as heads towards London and decays. Seems cold may be fighting back late Sunday but close call, temps 3 - 5 c on this run late Sunday near M4 belt. It looks like a slow push East that goes nowhere, this is too tight to call .
  6. Looks like few Cm's and maybe fair bit more but at this time with so much uncertainty lets just talk about potential.We do not need hopes raised at this time. it looks very likely we will see snow as Atlantic attempts breakdown, problem is if transient or not,
  7. Yep , looks okay, Some snow, just need keep the cold into next week for longevity
  8. Icon is playing with an idea fairly similar to UKMET hi res
  9. Its one model run, i can assure you every run Met Office model shows is different just like ECM and GFS, trust me i have just checked. However even latest run gives snow Friday and Saturday. They are holding back from decisive forecast for the end of the week in general and when mentioned they talk about potential snow and uncertainty. Thats what model shows, different timings and extent for potential snow. If the forecast for Friday is not decided, what does it say about forecast for Monday? It says that current prediction (latest run) is one of many possibilities.
  10. Remember folks We have no issues getting Precipitation here in Wales, its cold we struggle to get. We have the cold and it will be difficult to move. Breakdowns are our best option and Storm Emma was an attempted breakdown. Models have hinted at a transient snow followed by rain even, now hinting at extending the cold instead. So we can not only see opportunity extended, but also chance of multiple attempt at failed breakdowns. Nothing is nailed on by ANY model including Met Office hi rez. This can still be a very good even where everywhere in UK will have seen signifi
  11. I can not see amber on Wednesday or warnings for Thursday
  12. Wow guys really looking ahead, thats next weekend for phase 8 and 24th for effect Although phase 6 is Scandinavian blocking 7/8 in Greenland blocking and into phase 1 is Atlantic taking over. With the lag effect we do have a fortnight plus of opportunity with Easterly then most likely Northerly and if we get that far it can have its phase 1, i know thats forecast but in all honesty i see phase 8 into COD, but we will see.
  13. Yes phase 7 on 26th Jan, into phase 6 and now heading into Phase 7 again, been 12 days since entered phase 7/6 which is right for influence Northern hemisphere. Discussed this few days back, Why models seemed to go with stronger jet due to temp contrast over USA and seemed to ignore effect of MJO. Seems models caught up now.
  14. Especially trying to compare Apples v Pears Trends show comparing 0z v 0z or 06z v 06z
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