Jane Louise

New thread here storm lovers! Wishing you all lots of luck from this evening onwards!

And here's Torro with todays warning! TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2012/003 A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 0850GMT on Friday 15th June 2012 Valid from/until: 0900 - 2000GMT on Friday 15th June 2012, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire: Parts of (see map) Much of S England Midlands E Anglia Lincs/E Yorks/SE N England SE Wales THREATS Tornadoes; hail to 20mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning SYNOPSIS Substational surface cyclone and associated upper cold pool is located across S Eire. A cold front has cleared E England, with an occluded front located across N ENgland, which will ease into S Scotland. A wrap-around occlusion will affect western portions of Britain, and much of Eire. With the mid-level dry slot across much of the watch area, scattered convection has already developed, mainly in associated with a subtle short-wave trough, currently from SE Wales to Sussex. This will continue to move NNE through this morning, with further showers and perhaps thunderstorms developing. Deep layer and low-level shear will be sufficient (0-6km, 30-40 knots; 0-1km 20-25 knots) for organised multicells, small lines, and splitting supercells. All modes of severe weather are possible, although the limited low-level veering of winds with height suggest a fairly low tornado risk overall. However, enough risk exists to warrant a tornado watch over a severe thunderstorm watch. Behind this trough, forcing for ascent seems more nebulous, with less of a focus for convective development. However, diurnal heating along with topographical influences, and shear vorticity along the northern side of a pronouced jet streak (which will lie across SE England) suggest that further convection will develop. Again, shear will be sufficient for all modes of convection and severe. Again the tornado threat is fairly low but high enough to warrant a tornado watch. Forecaster: RPK UK MAP http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

What an exciting day for storms. Good luck all. I may even strike lucky myself today Lol.

8.55pm Tues Moderate Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers Ireland & UK 09Z-21Z Stronger Organised Convection Possible (as per yellow box) Irregularities between models now much less obvious. GFS, NMM and WRF now pretty firm on the potential for a widespread thundery regime through Weds, Hence a Moderate Risk level is more appropriate! An unstable environment builds within the post frontal sector. A number of surface troughs expected to develop from quite early on Weds morning. Relatively weak upper trough nudges eastward increasing lift with a number of moderate strength PVA Max's looking to further increase lift along the northern periphery of the upper jet stream. Some marginal overlay of vertical shear to instability looks to take place for southern UK as per yellow box. Though based on the forecast vertical wind profiles I do not ATM see this support developing supercell characteristics on any storm building in this sector (though this could change)! Whilst Deep Layer Shear would appear strong, the vertical velocities are not showing cloud tops reaching this level. This will means that any building storm cell will be unlikely to tap into this strong upper motion. Lack of convergence right across the board and the low level shear looks rather weak ATM with fairly straight lined winds at all levels. So not ready to suggest any risk of tornado development. Though this cannot be entirely ruled out. Prime regions where lightning could be more prolific might be around W.Midlands later in the day. Also likely to be a risk of strong gusts (non severe). Confidence is fairly good for results ATM. Certainly worth a heads up and requires careful monitoring. It would only take some minor changes within the models to increase the severe aspect of this outlook. This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 05 June 2012 - 21:19 http://www.ukweather...-6th-june-2012/

Good luck for tomorrow all Maybe more of a chance for most of us tomorrow now we are in the month of June. I know June is starting off on a not so good note! but it looks like it's warming up after a couple of weeks of dull weather . Maybe a good sign for the start of our summer thunderstorms .

Convection building rapidly here over towards the hills. I'm going to go for a walk soon across the fields in hope something kicks off

Where in Cheltenham are you trickey?

Estofex for tomorrow.. Maybe an isolated storm somewhere. http://www.estofex.org/ No threat levels were issued. SYNOPSIS/ DISCUSSION An Omega-like blocking pattern leads to quite stable conditions over western Europe but a weak upper level disturbance may allow isolated showers and thunderstorms over parts of Germany. The highest instability can be found over France and the Aegean Sea. The chance for severe weather on Sunday is rather low. If there might be any severe weather, the greatest possibility for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be found over S Greece and the Bosporus region towards W Turkey. As expected for most events of non-severe summertime convection, the formation of CAPE and therefore the thunderstorm activity is strongly dominated by the diurnal cycle. Isolated heavy rainfall/ large hail or a marginally severe downburst event may occur everywhere within the high probability thunderstorm areas but the coverage of events will not justify any threat level.

Fingers crossed! that sure is looking good. Let's hope it stays it that way and nothing changes the potential.

All it needs is to be nudged a little further North then I'd be in luck today lol. Hoping something triggers off on Sunday.I wont get to excited until nearer the time though.

Hi Chris and welcome to the forum good luck with the storms, we all sure need it lol. Enjoy your stay!

Oh well! not many of us had a storm today, the potential was there but only a few got one. Still there's plenty more time yet I'm now looking to Sunday and next week. You got admit it's been gorgeous weather though!

New thread here folks!

A new thread for today onwards! UKASF Areas Affected: SLGT: C + CS Scotland, Pennines, W + S Midlands, Cumbria Synopsis: Strong capping beneath upper ridge will inhibit deep convection, but isolated convection may occur in response to daytime heating and orographic forcing. Discussion: As LSTs rise sharply, >1400J/kg CAPE is likely to build up. However, with a distinct lack of forcing and strong capping at 950mb due to a warm nose, primary focus then turns to either convergence from seabreezes, or orographic forcing, or ideally a combination of both. This seems most prevalent around the Solway Firth (Dumfries & Galloway and/or Cumbria), and over the Pennines where seabreezes and topography will play a key part in providing forced ascent and the potential for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms to form, but this risk is considered quite low (10-20%). Initiation time is likely to be quite late in the day once again. Forecast soundings indicate a qute dry profile, so it is questionable as to how much precipitation such showers could produce. Nevertheless, PWAT >30mm locally combined with very light steering winds means locally a quasi-stationary cell could produce a significant amount of rain over a relatively small area - one to watch, perhaps. Very week shear not only limits severe potential, but also suggests such showers (or storms) will become poorly organised, but given dry air aloft there could be some hail if any stronger cores can develop. Several models also indicate high ground W + N of London (Chilterns primarily, and perhaps the Cotswolds) may also have the potential for an isolated sharp shower, but given lack of significant topographic forcing and/or convergence, for now we ignore this idea. http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/172 The Netweather stormrisk: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120524/00/18/ukstormrisk.png then there's this: . http://131.54.120.150/index.cfm?section=dspViewer&strProductType=Hazards&strProduct=THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD# maybe a forecast to come from Nick F and Brickfielder later! Good luck everyone!

It certainly looks interesting today! excited about the forecast from Estofex http://www.estofex.org/ it's going to be a hit and miss affair today I guess . Good luck to all anyway.

Yes, this is excellent!Thunder and lightning at last, heavy hail showers this is great. good luck all and especially to all in my NSC club..

Heavy hail shower here... plenty of convection surrounding me too. Fingers crossed for the 'T' word

Lol, of course! it'll be HAARP, I blame HAARP for my lack of storms!.

Yeah Carl, you're right there lol. Just felt a bit optimistic regarding tomorrow! Anyhow, let's wait and see..who knows where one may turn up. It obviously wont be Cheltenham or Wrexham that's for sure!

I'm not lol, was just asking your opinion!

What would be your forecast? are you going to spoil it for me and tell me Cheltenham isen't in the high risk one ? pleasee noo lol

A first forecast for tomorrow. I'm in the yellow box, so here's hoping. Good luck one and all. Click on the link to see the map. 7.45pm Mon Slight Risk of Thunderstorms Central east Ireland, and all central UK regions 12Z-19Z A more promising outlook for results with further surface troughing developing during the afternoon period within a continued NWsterly airstream and strong PVA aloft. A strong upper jet stream looks to be orientated across Ireland and SWestern regions of the UK. ATM there would seem to be some overlap of instability to stronger shear potential. Whilst low level shear is likely to be rather weak and straight lined, the mid level support available as per yellow box could develop the odd isolated stronger thunderstorm with the potential for large hail. Freezing level looks to drop well below cloud base by early afternoon for this sector. In fact the upper long wave trough is significantly deep and will develop numerous cumulonimbus cloud anywhere across the UK. Certainly one to keep an eye on! http://www.ukweather...-15th-may-2012/

Lol, my strike alert is hanging together with bluetac and sellotape and to get it to actually work I have to bang it with my hand LOL. I know a lot of people who've had these problems with the old strike alert. Thanks scoobie You can PM with a price, but it may take a while to save some pennies for it Lol

Hi scoobie, can you pop your location in your profile. Thank you Now,that's the one I want lol but a bit much out of my budget.. do you get any storms where you are lol ?

Nothing here Carl, believe me, in this part of Cheltenham I've only had light rain!! hoping for something later.