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Weather Wonder

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    Galashiels Scottish Borders, Previously Guildford Surrey

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  1. Nessies back, the Scottish version of Groundhog Day, best get down the shops for bread and milk
  2. So Euro4 still onboard, just need METO to jump ship
  3. Real quick post here apologies for my paint skills this is roughly what I expect to happen.
  4. Well over a foot now an Lauder caught more showers than gala! Tomorrow was always the day forecast to deliver the most for us, hopefully just a wobble but starting to look like the trough might not be over us
  5. More heading our way Anyone know what time the Euro4 is out 8pm? Meto automated radar and forecast starting to play down this tomorrow imby
  6. Snaw is crazy again here well over a foot now, meto need to sort their warnings out.
  7. Crazy amount of snaw falling here right now and loads more to come, reminds me of the 2009 streamer down south 30cm in 18 hours from that and we have two and a half days to go.
  8. Without a doubt this is going to be worst in NE England its the rest of the front that will impact Scotland, a conservative estimate would be an inch in the borders less further north but of more interest is the showers which get going after the front has passed through. The front is incredibly slow moving which ties in with the forecasts here, didn’t expect to see this show up on the radar so early.
  9. Not too sure you'll be able to travel home, thats why i live here now
  10. Just caught it on iplayer, looking like the kind of forecast people will repost on here in a few years time if anyone missed it its at https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09s8khj/weather-for-the-week-ahead-25022018
  11. Yes there is a high chance with such an unstable and cold flow at this time of the year although the nearer you are to the east coast increases the possibilty as do any streamers,
  12. ECM also being progressive with this low pressure system suggests that the GFS bias to blowing up LPs isnt the case
  13. Its certainly becoming a consistant pattern in the models now, however i think GFS12Z is slightly overdoing the intensity of this low and as a result the western extent, a couple more days before we can start to make an educated guess. Lots of weather happening before then which is mostly down to nowcasting, dont forget to look outside and not just at the latest outputs
  14. While were divided whether the north or south are getting the most snow ireland are looking likely to get hit with a blizzard less than 5 months after getting hit by a hurricane
  15. Its about time i did a post on here which takes more than a couple of minutes to type so here we go. Going to start off by quoting @Paul will save me alot of time posting charts and all from an unbiased source So now we have the previous outputs we can start to come to a conclusion here, i will start with the most obvious. There is NO strong easterly flow as was previously modelled.. this is key as it will push showers well inland and allow the colder sub -10 uppers to arrive quicker and remain over the british isles. For the majority of the southeast in particular for heavy settling snow the charts at the moment are just not enough. As above the slack flow off the continent also increases the risk of shortwaves developing hence the varied outputs we are seeing now, the fact the models cant decide on the stregnth of the block is even more concerning. This should go without saying but with March around the corner and the increasing stregnth of the sun we all need low temps to sustain snow cover for more than a day or too,m -5/-10 850s just wont cut it this time of year without a cold high pressure being in situ more so in the south and would be difficult in the north withouth altitude in this setup as currently modeled. With the output downgrading the potential consistantly i think we should all be a bit more realistic, im not saying its not going to snow but based of the input, the best most places can hope for is a four day cold snap with a chance of snow a high posibilty but severe snow away from favoured spots is unlikely IMHO