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Everything posted by shane303
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Exciting for some but travel chaos for many and not great for the elderly with rising heating costs -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Those uppers are still conductive of snow even at sea level and temperatures will struggle above freezing -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The models could Still all change alot to a less cold set up so won’t be a done deal until maybe Thursday -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In 24 hours everything will change again on a major scale so don’t take this morning’s outputs to heart -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The models will flip flop for a few days yet keep calm it’s the affects of the SSW they can’t handle it, but the easterly is coming it’s just a question of when not if -
Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It may be milder by Tuesday yes and looks good on the models but it won't be spring like in realty it will be mostly cloudy with rain developing from the west / south west from Wednesday and hill fog too. -
Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shame the forecast is for plenty of cloud then -
Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So from the lastest models the outlook is cold or very cold until Monday then perhaps less cold / milder then a cold reload from the north the following weekend -
Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?
shane303 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So no matter what the models are saying the met office outlook is still feeling very cold in east winds next week Perhaps some snow in the NE and in the far west becoming less cold by the 22nd but even late February in to march it's still Likely on the cold side , so they have a much better model look then we have. -
Let's enjoy the upcoming cold spell perhaps less cold next week but models will change a lot by then , also with that block in place I wouldn't be surprised we have a cold reload from the NE , winter is not over yet, also some cold nights if skies remain clear next week bringing surface temperatures down
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Another good set of charts this morning with cold air moving In from the east from Wednesday, models will struggle with the block but I think we have a better chance of an easterly this time. Some cold days some not as cold but a blocked pattern looks likely for some time. With any clear skies and light winds overnight we could be getting some very hard frosts. Perhaps some battle ground rain or snow in the far south west and west at times.
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As I said yesterday we need caution on next weeks possible cold as we see in this mornings run most of the cold air stays east of the uk with mostly average temperatures occurring unless your on the east coast. Meanwhile it's wet and wild in the south west this morning a very unsettled weekend to come with deep lows