RisingStar

Looks like theres some cells forming to the south of Matador, according to the radar.

Some news on the evacuation attempt.. It is estimated that there are still around 25,000 villagers which are refusing to leave the risk area as they don't believe there will be a major eruption. Scientists fear that the intense build up of magma may cause a large blast, sending just about everything crashing down the mountain side. :o

Staff from Indonesia's Volcanologic Survey, have manned the posts once again, however they are ready to quickly rush out when the main blast happens, which is expected to happen very soon. It must be a really interesting job to get to watch such amazing natural events, though I do hope they are ready to run for it when it happens!

BBC News now reporting the apparent eruption, saying the increased tremors indicated the first eruption was at 1615 local time (0915 GMT). If there was any ash and lava, it has been obscured by heavy clouds and fog.

It appears there has been some isolated damage along the west coast of Sumatra and reports of a small tsunami in at area also, but not causing major damage. The magnitude was revised to 8.2. Indonesia's meteorology agency said the danger of a serious tsunami had passed.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007 at 11:10:19 UTC Wednesday, September 12, 2007 at 06:10:19 PM at epicenter 157 km (98 miles) SW (234°) from Bengkulu, Sumatra, Indonesia 415 km (258 miles) SSE (168°) from Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia 436 km (271 miles) SW (219°) from Jambi, Sumatra, Indonesia 645 km (401 miles) WNW (285°) from JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia Tsunami warning in place. Buildings swayed in the capital Jakarta, some offices were evacuated, there are no reports of damage or casualties.

Maybe they could use synoptic charts, but stick words like 'cool' and 'hot' in big chunky text like you often see in US forecasts.

:lol: I Didn't mean to sound like I was ruling out a TS altogether, I was just expecting to hear of a new named storm from the latest recon mission, but yes it seems that development could still happen in the next 48h or so.

It appears that there isn't going to be any further developments as the tropical depression/storm hasn't formed as expected.

Not sure if this is the correct thread but... I thought I would mention the mass of thunderstorms which are sitting in the Gulf of Mexico, I suppose this could be an area which may be identified if anything begins to develop.

What would be the limits of this storm if it were to become a hurricane? From looking at historic storms in that area, it seems that maybe a maximum of category 2 is likely. Also, Does anyone know a link for recent sea temperatures to the East of the US?

Winds went up from 135mph to 150mph between the last 2 advisories, so perhaps it may increase to Cat5 just before landfall.

Ive been looking at the storms in the channel towards the SE, and it appears that any activity will only be reserved for Kent as the storms seem to be moving NNE more than i originally thought.

Not quite sure which way the cells below the SE (in the channel) are moving? It appears to be either straight N or a little NNE...

Clouds looking much darker South towards London than 15 mins ago, possibility of another small band of heavy showers developing quickly.