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wellington boot

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    Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
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    Sport, Cooking/Eating/Drinking, Travel, Weather, Photography

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  1. Yes indeed. The last two days of sun already felt glorious and summery and we've barely started on this spell yet... Looks like a good week coming up and plenty of promise beyond. NOAA anomalies also pretty much matching the current output. Perhaps some kind of low hanging just West for a while at 6-10 days, but the second week looking like HP dominant across a wide area.
  2. Yes I think this is right. That chart and others we've seen like it look much preferable to what we've had recently. Not as deep, warmer, better orientation. Reminds me of some of the weather last June, which I found quite pleasant - warm enough, sunshine and less frequent showers.
  3. Thanks for this. A good example of how charts don't always tell the story, especially when viewed at 3 day intervals in quick succession! I realise I should have been more careful with my characterisation in any case, since there was nothing summery till the second half of June, which makes for a very late start. Given that fine details can make all the difference regarding how HP or any synoptic arrangement is experienced on the ground, any correspondence between 1987 and 2021 is still not necessarily a bad thing, and we definitely do want high pressure close by through summer. But
  4. A few notes on this comparison, even if dfficult to tell all from a limited review of the archive. The spring overall is not a bad proxy for this year, but the April looks much warmer than this year, less northerly influence and much less northern blocking. However, there is a similar overall story, and both follow a January SSW (can't find the data to remind myself how the two events compare) Everything looks a little later also in 1987, in that the late storms and cold, wet weather continued well into June. The evolution as that weather changes is similar to what might happen over
  5. As per my message yesterday, I would say the trend has continued in the most recent set of anomalies and is looking increasingly positive, both in the 6-10 and 8-14 day charts. Another day or two of improvements and I think we could have some confidence that change is on the way. Would also be consistent with Tamara's analysis from yesterday.
  6. Does it really have no signal for any change? Surely there is a hint of a ridge pushing up at all levels just West of the UK on the 8-14 day? Maybe "marked" is the operative word. Obviously the changes are relatively subtle at this point. But the anomalies are a 6 day average, so one should only expect them to change gradually. If that kink was a little further east and a little more pronounced later today, I would see that as a positive trend and a sign that things may be changing.
  7. Can anyone tell me which forecasting site/sites use ECM data exclusively? Is this even advertised?
  8. Agreed it doesn't bode too well for anything really exciting, but those in East Kent have already had a pretty good evening. We're a bit stuck in between bands here under perpetual light snow unfortunately - the shower stream seems to be slowly shearing into two as the winds shift around, and the echoes are fading fast as they move inland anyway, as usual for this spell. Re your comment about pressure, I would say that these spells always remind me of the limited importance of pressure in these set ups. We started with pressure close to 1000hpa, correspondingly lower heights, and a h
  9. It did again didn't it...? Typical of this spell really, showers struggling to push inland effectively. That said, I bet it fell at a pretty decent rate for a while there. 5 miles to your south east, we seem to be running up in between the worst showers right now... Happily it is still snowing lightly and somewhere along the line we've gained a new cm or two blanketing any bare patches of paths and road. Now nervously watching the next lot, examining closely for backbuilding, and hoping for a couple of good hits...
  10. Been looking at the models again, and I'm half dispirited that the one day they show us getting a direct hit for a few hours, they seem to be wrong, but half optimistic that there might be a bit more to come. The hourly charts from the hi Res models show the showers in a much more stable pattern and even tilt back a touch more easterly as the day progresses. All further NW than currently shown on radar also With further shower formation evident, there's got to be a chance of a few more showers.
  11. Moderate to heavy snow here for the last 30 mins, even though the radar has it losing intensity rapidly as it gets here. Must be very heavy a little way further NE. Annoyingly, the whole band does seem to be shifting South fast and I'm not sure we'll stay in the good stuff for more than this one shower. Why can't we just have one stable, static-ish streamer...?! Also these showers are continuing to struggle with maintaining intensity as they move inland. Irritating, as the North Downs aren't THAT big, and it's been less of an issue in the past... EDIT: Just eased right off. Bee
  12. Started snowing here, about to hit properly I think. It's very noticeable how the streamer has already shifted South - how confident are we that this will stabilise for a while and not simply keep sliding South?
  13. Are these charts publicly available anywhere? I've been looking for them on and off the past couple of days and can't find them.
  14. Honestly that still looks very favourable. I do find those charts intriguing though - are they supposed to be a snapshot? Because if they're showing ppn total, then they're very strange and clearly unhelpful. Make much more sense as an impression of how the radar will look at that particular time.
  15. Oof, do not like that. I mean, it probably makes little difference, because you can see from the next one that it will gradually sink South and hopefully therefore cover the whole region along the way, but... I preferred the ones that had the convergence line right over my head...
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