NL

Reports saying every mobile home on the Shawnee reservation have been destroyed with at least one fatality.

Half mile wide tornado multiple vortices, huge tornado just north of Welston. Oklahoma.

Latest from the NWS expect initiation to commence around 19-20z in North/Central/ Oklahoma and South/Central Kansas. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS SPC going with a 15% tornado probability today through NE Oklahoma,SE Kansas into Paul's favourite chase country Misery (Missouri). Could be one or two large and powerful tornadoes today.. Stay safe.. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ..KS/MO/OK MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF TX/OK. THIS AIR MASS IS POISED TO RETURN RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO BY MID AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS CAP WILL INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20-23Z. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...BUT A FEW SUBTLE STORM-SCALE DETAILS WILL INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME. ONE PROBLEM MAY BE THE DEGREE OF HEATING REQUIRED TO BREAK THE CAP OVER OK AND THE RESULTING LCL HEIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES /MLCAPE OVER 4000 J/KG/ MAY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCES SO HAVE INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AFTER 00Z /0-3KM HELICITY VALUES RISING TO 300-500 M2/S2/ WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHWEST MO. OTHERWISE...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0+ C/KM WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

Nice stovepipe

Tornado watch issued for western Oklahoma just south of the team. ACUS11 KWNS 182252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182252 OKZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 [attachment=171600:Screen shot 2013-05-18 at 23.58.52.png] AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 171... VALID 182252Z - 182345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 171 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER WRN OK. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OR TWO WOULD SEEMINGLY INCREASE IN THE 00Z-02Z PERIOD AS STORMS MOVE TO THE NE AT 20 KT. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OCCASIONALLY ACQUIRING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE NE AT 20 KT OVER SWRN OK. THE KFDR VWP ONLY SHOWS AROUND 30-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...LENDING SOME LIMITATION TO GREATER SUPERCELL STRUCTURE LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS...THE AIRMASS OVER WRN OK FEATURES VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WILL FAVOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS AN EVENTUAL MORE ROBUST STORM OR TWO WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FROM THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPROVES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...THE REMAINING INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH STORM-SCALE ROTATION INCREASING IN TANDEM WITH A LLJ FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT BY 00-01Z. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...RICHER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WWD AND IMPROVE PROSPECTS FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES.

Storms shaping up now in the SW corner of Oklahoma Heading NE towards Altus.

Tornado watch issued. WWUS20 KWNS 182025 SEL1 SPC WW 182025 OKZ000-TXZ000-190400- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0171NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0316 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013WT 0171PROBABILITY TABLE:PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 50%PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 60%PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70%PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%&&ATTRIBUTE TABLE:MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25030PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Even in the last 10 mins Neil. Latest sat. Look at those cells explode western Kansas.

Latest satellite image showing a Cu field bubbling up nicely along the dry-line. © MSFC/ NASA Starting to initiate, dryline starting to explode.

Not so sure about the rain easing for that long this afternoon, there's a mass of cloud making inroads towards the Uk and growing in intensity as it glides across the North sea currently its looking likely it may hit Northern parts of the North-east possibly Tyne & Wear Northwards, one to watch. http://www.sat24.com/en/gb http://www.radareu.cz/

Pretty intense rotation on JR Henley's stream

Cells over North/central Texas looking good from visible satellite image.

Developing tornado heading straight towards Mineral Wells BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 624 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... CENTRAL PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 624 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO IS HEADED RIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CITY OF MINERAL WELLS...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MINERAL WELLS AROUND 630 PM CDT... COOL...MILLSAP AND MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK AROUND 640 PM CDT... WEATHERFORD AND HUDSON OAKS AROUND 715 PM CDT...

Tornado observed by spotters and doppler radar Comanche Hamiliton and Mills Counties N/central texas. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 617 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... WEST CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL MILLS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 617 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO OVER NORTH CENTRAL MILLS COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... PRIDDY AT 630 PM CDT POTTSVILLE AT 640 PM CDT

Tornado watch looks imminent for NW/NorthCentral Texas and southern Oklahoma going by the latest MD from the SPC. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 152240Z - 152345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 160...WITH THE LARGEST HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS AS WELL MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX...MONITORING FOR A PARTIAL TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE. DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION PRIMARILY CONCERNS NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WHERE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF A CLUSTERING BAND OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF WICHITA FALLS SSW TO GRAHAM AND BROWNWOOD AREAS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHWARD TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEST TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE NOTED NEAR/EAST OF THE CONFLUENT AXIS...WITH A RECENT TREND OF BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW /SOUTHEASTERLY/ AND AS MUCH AS 150-175 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH PER MODIFIED FORT WORTH WSR-88D VWP. THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF AT LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...SUCH THAT A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

Great call from Nick F earlier mentioning greatest potential for tornadic activity east or Northeast of Witchita Falls, storm around that area is now tornado warned and is currently dropping 2" hail. Reports now coming in of baseball sized hail. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 525 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES NORTH OF STONEBURG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... NOCONA AROUND 550 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

Tornado potential has been increased to 5% North central Texas. Wichita Falls being the prime place to start the chase..!! NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS CORRECTED FOR WORDING AT THE END OF 2ND PARAGRAPH. ..NRN AND ERN TX/SRN OK COMPLEX SRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE FROM ERN NM TO W TX WILL DRIFT/LIFT ENEWD TDY WHILE EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER OK BY THIS EVENING. A MOIST PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED TSTMS AMIDST A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN TX. BAND OF ASCENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS ERN TX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE CONVECTION ENEWD ACROSS SERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX TODAY. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DEEP SHEAR AND POCKETS OF GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER THESE AREAS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE AS THE UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS OK LATER TODAY AND A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TX. THIS SHOULD OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA AND 30-35KT LLJ...WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL SEWD MOVING MCS/S THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING ESEWD OR SEWD ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR/DFW METROPLEX. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE 00Z STORM SCALE GUIDANCE FROM SPC SSEO AND AFWA ENSEMBLE. NOTE...00Z SSEO IS MISSING 4KM WRF-NMM MEMBER.

Its been awhile since Ive updated my condition as Ive just been able to cope well with the medication and had recently been employed as a chef but now they're starting to fail and manage my 'clusters' and I'm now back on the 'sick'. My GP prescribed Topiramate but this only made me feel agitated and aggressive so I stopped taking them after just over a week. I'm now taking an intense course of steriods and an increase in veraparmil dosage (480mg).  My life at the moment has surely took a nose-dive with the only relief (albeit temporary) is my sumatriptan injections and oxygen which I'm going through two large bottles every 3-4days..!! I had an excruciating attack today one of the worst for years full on 'suicide',.. Bad times....

Tennis ball sized hail possible with the storm approaching Central Oklahoma. 528 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 526 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OKARCHE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HINTON. HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE... DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... EL RENO...YUKON...CONCHO...PIEDMONT...HINTON...UNION CITY... CALUMET...COGAR AND RICHLAND.

Latest from SPC indicate that conditions look to become more favourable for tornadic development in parts of the weather watch area. DISCUSSION...SCTD SUSTAINED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM SW KS SFC LOW INTO WRN TX. STRENGTH AND DISCRETE NATURE OF STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE...PERSISTENT UPR DIFFLUENCE...AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING A RISK FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WINDS. WHILE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SIZABLE IN WW ATTM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CORRIDORS WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION/TORNADOES GIVEN EXPECTED STORM INTERACTIONS LATER THIS EVE..AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. THUS...PARTS OF THE WW MAY REQUIRE POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO TORNADO WW LATER THIS EVE.

Looking like Paul and Co will be treated to some spectacular supercell structures later. Pleased that the tour has started with some action again this year..long may it continue, good luck.!!

Nice development here in the NE with the radar showing some bright echoes.

Congratulations Stewart, tis fantastic that your highly accurate long-range weather forecasting techniques have been acknowledged by professionals and have offered you a great opportunity to use your skills. As others have already said you will be greatly missed here on Netweather.

Dew points have now dipped below freezing so snow looks likely to fall but in all honesty I'd rather have pleasant temps and sun as this has been a long cold winter with a few snow events. Im off inland today so will see the snow but I was hoping it to be dry and sunny oh well at least it'll be nice and warm in the car..!!