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minus86BriJ

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    Kildare, Ireland

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  1. I'd like to see the model's recent hints at semi favourable ridging leading into Christmas pick up some traction over the next few days (duh!), I'd even bank a cold and frosty one now if it was going tbh. From a wider perspective there is a lot to be optimistic about this winter IMO. Members who were lurking these forums back in the noughties would have sold both kidneys for even a sniff of a scandi high in November and December. The fact neither has delivered a snow event is again IMO irrelevant especially considering their early season timing. The mere fact they even happened is something to celebrate! Top that with positive signals from the main players here on SSWs, swans flying 30 meters higher than normal etc and of course the amazing BFTE last year, anyone posting whingey doomsday rubbish needs either A. Friends or B. a polite kick in the baubles.
  2. Schadenfreude entry #162. Johnp pointed out that the meteorological winter is just 6 days old, an indisputable fact that implies there's plenty of time for the 98% of us on here hoping for cold. Anyway, I for one am fairly optimistic going forward after reading some of the top players assessments of the potential SSW towards the end of the month. Thumbs up emoji!
  3. Absolute whiteout here for the last hour, proper flakes, strong winds, HEAVY heavy ppn, at least 4”. Monsuer, with these beasts you are really spoiling us
  4. Try telling that to us here in Ireland, as far as I can see this weekend will be a like beast #1 sneezing sarcastically on the east coast. It definitely will be stupidly cold for the time of year and there will be accumulations but nothing compared to the craziness that went on here a couple of weeks ago. The foreign visitors who flew in for paddy's day are in for some shock to the system tomorrow! Anyway it looks good for a lot of you in the south of England from this mornings updates, here's hoping you all get your fill.
  5. "snow pervert", lmao at that one
  6. minus86BriJ

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    Just to be a kn*bhead for a moment, I'm often tempted to copy and paste the before and after posts of the serial posters on here who emotionally cling to every single run, change their opinion every 6 hours and get upset over output that is over 10 days away that will never ever verify good or bad. When will people learn to accept the models are not designed to predict the weather, they are designed to produce possibilities based on a billion interacting variables that are immediately incorrect from the second they are released. On a different topic I "feel" like we've had the coldest winter since 2010 in my part of the world. We've had more frost and snowfalls than I can remember and if this easterly does by chance spring into life I'll be clocking the winter of 17/18 in the back of the old skull as one of the best in my memory.
  7. minus86BriJ

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    “Models have been all over the place”....the single most posted sequence of words on these forums over the last 15 years. Death, taxes and model inconsistencies.
  8. I understand your frustrations Rochey but unless we get a proper beast or a once in 20 year battleground bonanza we here in the east of Ireland are always going to miss out on the fun. Last night was never in the running for anything truly worth getting excited or more especially disappointed about.
  9. Seems to have stalled a bit just in the right spot (pour moi)
  10. Coming down nicely here now, not heavy but starting to get a covering. Leixlip Kildare.
  11. minus86BriJ

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    I'm a huge fan of cold and snow and the only real solace I find in mild winters with poor cold prospects is the disappointment felt by the bitter few who don't deserve another 2010. Plenty of time yet.
  12. Just to boost the spirits even if only a tiny bit, I stumbled on this quote from an American met site this morning. Zero in the way of specifics but nice to see this mentioned in context with the US further outlook. "There is the potential for such a pattern to begin to take shape during the first week in December with a block [an atmospheric traffic jam] anticipated to develop near Greenland," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/stormy-pattern-may-return-to-us-by-second-week-of-december/70003378
  13. minus86BriJ

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    I have to say I like wet and windy weather at 4C that freezes you to near death and saturates you to bone, there's pleasure in the inconvenience of it . Saturday was a blissfully miserable day IMO. A whiteout, show stopping blizzard that delivers 3-4 feet of snow would be top of my list but anything in between that and the lifeless zilch we've had to endure this winter will do me nicely. The stormy winter of a few years back was brilliant (obviously apart from the thousands who were affected by it), we hadn't seen a run of storms like that in long time.
  14. minus86BriJ

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    Id like to know exactly how these computer models are programmed or more to the point how they work at all. I'm sure there's a few on here who actually know a lot about it so forgive my ignorance before I start babbling. When I think about the nature of prediction programming ie, the prediction is based on past data and in the case of forecasting models it is likely based on an insane amount of interactive added variables ranging from temps, dates, macro models, sun spots etc etc, I can't but imagine that no matter how complex and powerful modern programs and their supporting hardware may be they just don't have enough past data to cover the infinity of possible outcomes. The latest programs might only stretch back as far as 5 - 10 years with data prior to this being re-entered manually(so to speak) including 2 or 3 centuries of basic readings that get more scatty the further back you go. Throw in a few global temperature anomalies caused by volcanic eruptions or minor orbital deviations etc and it would make sense to me that the supercomputers driving the models aren't wrong, they are just starved of relevant data. With that in mind (more specifically in my mind I should say ) the current easterly meteorological setup in our neck of the woods can only but cause the models to struggle. Easterly airflows aren't altogether rare in the UK and Ireland but they are without question in the minority (they seem to be popping up in summer more recently just to add a little salt to the coldies wounds) so it would stand to reason the models will overhype the westerly influence and bluff it's way through the outcome of a west v east standoff. Judging by the past week's output I reckon the models in these situations default after every 2 or 3 runs and start over after running comparisons between their control run predictions and T0's (which I assume they constantly do).
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