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minus86BriJ

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    Kildare, Ireland

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  1. 😆 Look, everyone knows getting a decent cold snowy spell in these parts is nigh on impossible in any given winter. Hope casting to me isn’t even a derogatory term, it describes those members who are genuinely searching with hopeful optimism for the elusive white gold. The naysayers that prod and jibe at others in here might be right 80% of the time past day ten but even in failure it’s 100% more fun and rewarding being a Jedi.
  2. Aww, I was contemplating liking the first edit, oh well.
  3. It’s only weather to normal people, noone hanging around in here is normal 😶
  4. Is that an indication of the high ridging north, the western edge winding the low up like a spinning top keeping the low in situ?
  5. Met Eireann 11:04 Update: "Thursday remains very uncertain but current indications suggest it will start cloudy in most areas with a band of rain spreading from the southwest. The rain possibly turning to snow as it pushes northeastwards but there is a lot of uncertainty in relation to this feature at the moment. It will be very cold with temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees. Frost and ice will develop on Thursday night along with further wintry showers." Not a wholly inspiring update but you never know. Anyone on higher ground in the heavy precip zone are looking good for a day off work on Friday, the rest of us will have to wait and see.
  6. Ahh the memories...2/3/18
  7. The infinitely complex interaction of macro drivers will always keep FI at 4-5 days followed by flip flopping ensemble chaos from run to run, especially if your focus is on the pimple that is the UK and Ireland from a global perspective. My point is winter is NOT over just yet, yes we need a huge slice of luck in the next couple of weeks but no one can deny that there’s always a chance. Feb91, March18 did actually happen.
  8. The lads letting off the balloons today might come up with a different outlook later on, the chances may be low to zero point zero one but hey, chin up old boy eh.
  9. Is the downwelling data entered into the model algorithms manually or how does that work? I don't know what percentage the models rely on historically analogous set ups/data sets to produce their runs (massive overly simplified I know!) but being as rare an event as it is I would have thought a trop downwelling would cause absolute model chaos! Models flipping within 24 hours where over-stating even the smallest variable would effect T-12 never mind T-144 and beyond. Was the failed beast last week a victim? Are we all victims? Why do I care??? I'm now lying down...
  10. Yeh snowing away nicely in Amsterdam as well. https://balticlivecam.com/cameras/netherlands/amsterdam/dam-square/ I lived there for 2 years recently without a flake of snow.. send me to Russia in a box and you'll all be guaranteed 2 foot plus 🌨️
  11. Totally aggre with this. The macro picture hasn’t changed longer term and one aggressive low isn’t going to trump all the effects of the SSW going forward.
  12. Schadenfreuders dream here this morning, you gotta love em though😃 The influence of the beast from the west coming out of states may be overstated by the ECM after the initial data is fed in, it seems hard to believe one system can disrupt two large HP cells hell bent on a love affair so drastically. I’m gonna check back it in at 18:24, I don’t look at the models anymore, it’s much more fun just catching up in here 🥶
  13. Is it fair to say that the 12z ECM might have misconstrued or over/underinflated one or even a percentage of one of the macro variables to a point where any resultant output is scuppered from the outset? Would this error (for want of a better word) not have the same effect on the entire ensemble suite to boot? Like many others I’ve been following this forum and the models for donkeys years and without question the only constant is inconsistency. Entire ensemble suites can and have turned from one extreme to another before you can finish your cornflakes. The ECM threw out a “downgrade” or two already this week, personally I think the overseers are just trying to mess with feb1991s head (it’s working 😀(only poking F91)) Roll on amarach
  14. Excellent Post KW, ideal for newbs and a friendly reminder to all just how quickly things can and do change...sometimes even for the better.
  15. UKMO looks like cold rain for my part of the planet as progged by the Irish met this morning from Thursday through the weekend. I’m still confident of favorable HLB setting up down the line. Is it behind door number 1, perhaps it’s door number 3?!.....find out after the break
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