Just Below Zero

P12 is definitely my pillow for the night.

Possible attacks fro SW N NE oe E with this set up ESB........EVERY SESSION BARMIER

This model seems to complete a watering down of winter in the southern coastal area known as snowdomia since the turn of the century

Please don't mention "that ECM"

Nice history lesson TT just goes to show how difficult it is to get those real winter experiences here. Most on here enjoy the chart possibilities but atm not much doing. By the way TT Who is this Stella Charts who should be giving us all encouragement?

Just picked out P 19 at total random at 192 that will do nicely http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012918/gens-19-1-192.png

gfs mean at 120 showng a amuch better pull from the ne and more Atlantic amplification than the 12z http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012918/gens-21-1-108.png AH SM beat me to it

Quick summary of the latest models........... ECM starring Freddy Kruger rated 12z UKMO starring Peter Cushing rated 12z GFS starring Vincent Price rated 18z

That looks like a duck in the water to me!!

Lets face it. No rescource is reliable in these instances. Not now or not even the next generation of super computers. Upto 5 days we may expect to go from say 79.1% accurate to maybe 80.2%. But even if it were 90% we could never rely on it. This is the sheer beauty of temperate climate. No need to ever get hung up because there is always something different around the next corner. Even 30 minutes out on radar things change daramatically! That said someone somewhere in the BI will be very happy with their cotton wool landscape this week. And for those doubters there is less than 5 months to go before the nights start drawing in for the next round on the NW forum. God that red wine was good tonight!!!

Great model watching at the moment, so many imponderables. No wonder the Met have been talking up Shannon Entropy. It all makes for great discussion on the forum. Now for those of us who find the Mets meaning of Shannon Entropy technical I have a set of imponderables to define it for myself. They are........ Will the Pacific ridge stay amplified. Will the Azores HP amplify further to keep the US cold over their side. Will the LP area go under the block. Will the Scandi High retrogress inyo the vacuum left by the LP, it usually does. Will temps be low enough for the "white" stuff. Will the JMA become the new model god for the Met and Netweather followers to pray to. Will FROSTY turn MELTY. Stay tooned for the 12zs

I like to think of it in 3D like water spiralling in a sink trying to get down the plughole, If it stayed at the same level ie. same isobar pressure it would never disappear. This is only an analogy and not science though

Having seen the latest models and I still see little evidence of HLB as was considered by by the strat boil in consequence from other years when we had HLB without strat warming. Do we need to think that there is a another major player at work in the atmosphere. When you trawl through some of the archives many cold winters were seeminglly domnated by low pressure systems that were considerably much further south of where they are in todays scenarios. They therefore seemed to feed into HLB at a higher latitude making it easier to advect cold into more southerly areas. It may be a load of twaddle but seems to me that for instance channel lows swept across the atlantic at the same latitude and did not rely on having to slide for an effect. Just a thought! any takers?

Someone said this afternoon that GFS cant detect sliders. The 18z has them coming along like buses. We are waiting at the next stop

Got to go to bed. Ive finished my bottle of wine , the wife's in bed, the dog is snoring and i have little faith in the promised temp lowering. Not enough height rises in the required areas in my experience. See you all on another rollercoaster day. JBZ

calling all lamp post watchers ! calling all lamp post watchers ! Any signs of any white gold in SW region.

Have to agree with that.! They been trying to pin the tail on a donkey and generally got some where near its hindquarters whereas some models have been a bit ass.

Meteociel Model maker appears to have stuck ensemles at 180. Could be the day after tomorrow next week.

It has changed but now finds it even more of a distance away than it was before. Someone said this morning that GFS was like an elephant walking around in a chaotic Met Office in Exeter. But its alright now they found out it was only Dumbo!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html Try that IT]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120112/18/336/h500slp.png Seems a familiar chart. Who would have believed that the 18z had taken up vows of abstinence as a new years promise

Thunderstorm overhead in Dorchester right now. First decent claps for months. I dont think any one fore cast this. You never know what you are going to get next in this game

have to say how sorry I am to see Rob Mcelwee@s last BBc forecast shortly ago. I know many cold fans on Netweather will miss his infectious affinity with extreme weather and his sardonic smiles when Britain was about to be hit by the unusual. I'm surprised he didnt get a Knighthood in the new years honours list. BRING BACK SIR ROB!!!

14 days? Thats 56 model runs all totally different. Well if there were enough monkeys........

I like you earlier said to myself I wasnt going to look past T144, but its a little like eating chocolate hobnobs you just cant help looking at another chart....and another....and another