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North-Easterly Blast

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  1. The chance of a notably warm first half of June must be very likely by now. The CET by the 15th could well get close to 17*C, and at the very least is likely to be above 16.5. I cannot think of when the last occasion was that we had such a warm first half of June. If the CET is that high by mid-month the chance of a notably high overall June CET is there; granted there have in the past been second halves of June that were cooler than the first half although this happens less often than the other way round. Even if the second half of this month does not see a continuation of the warm first
  2. In actual fact August 2014 was the only month in that year where the month's overall CET was below average; many other months of that year were well above average, especially the January to April period of 2014 and also the autumn (Sep to Nov) of that year.
  3. As we only have the daily minimum and maximum CET values from 1878, it is possible that some cold Aprils before 1878 would have had a lower CET minimum than April 2021 but do not show up in the records.
  4. I think anyone thinking that a sub 9*C annual CET is possible for 2021 is asking too much, as at this stage of 2021 so far, it would require something like a second half like 1993, or a repeat of Dec 2010 at the end of the year, both of which are very unlikely. One point of note worth mentioning is that the rolling 12 month CET up to the end of May 2021, following the cool April and May we have just had, now stands at 9.87*C. I believe that this is the first time since autumn 2015 that the rolling CET has gone under 10*C.
  5. The final May CET is in, although I make it 10.16*C upon calculating the daily figures, so it should really be 10.2 rounded up.
  6. Yes it is very true that although we did have some relatively cool Mays in 2010, 2013 and 2015, there has not been a really cool May since 1996. May 1996 was certainly notably cold, and up there in the rankings with the likes of March 2013, but the lowest May CET since then was 10.4*C in 2013.
  7. Getting an annual CET below 9*C this year would be highly unlikely in my opinion, as even at this stage it would most likely require a second half like 1993 or a repeat of Dec 2010 at the end of the year.
  8. Well last month was a cause of celebration in that it has given us the first significantly below average April (first sub 7*C) in 32 years. The absence of cold Aprils in recent times is certainly a remarkable statistic when you consider that between 1990 and 2020 the April CET was never lower than 7.2. A 32 year run without the April CET going under 7*C (or 7.2 to be precise) is unprecedented in the 360+ year long record. The April 2021 CET was 6.43*C to be precise. The mean minimum was also the coldest in the list since 1878, although prior to that in the CET record we cannot be certain t
  9. Not quite I do not think. I think that March 2013 was around 3.9*C below the 1981-2010 mean and 3*C below 1961-90. For April 2021 to have such a large anomaly from the most recent average, I think it would need a CET in the low 5s, of which there is no way that it will be that low.
  10. May 1975 was also cool with a CET of 9.9. So the pattern of late March / early April returned in May that year.
  11. Spring 1996 was cold largely due to the notably cold May. May 1996 was actually the joint 13th to 15th coldest May on record, which puts it on a very similar ranking to March 2013 for notable cold; there has not been a colder May since 1902, which makes May 1996 the coldest May in the past 119 years to date. In actual fact May 1996 was the last individual notably cold month we had up to winter 2009-10 or even December 2010. March was also cold that year (following on from a pretty cold winter) although not as cold as 2013. I think that April 1996 saw a brief spell of cold weather in the se
  12. I am very surprised that "Weather History's" winter index for 2020-21 ranks above 2012-13, when that winter was colder overall than this year. The CET for winter 2020-21 was 4.4*C, which is slightly milder than the 1961-90 average, and close to, or just below the 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 averages, and around 0.4 - 0.5 under the 1991-2020 average, which all in all, makes winter 2020-21 look a very average winter overall in terms of temperature, and similar for overall temperatures to 2017-18. In some ways this winter was similar to 2008-09 in terms of the cold spells that occurred, with the co
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