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North-Easterly Blast

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  1. August 2008 was actually close to, or just above older averages with a CET of 16.2; it was just how dull that month was that changes peoples perceptions of that month when it was not cool at all. August 2010 was below average though at CET 15.3, and August 2014 is actually the coolest of recent times at 14.9, and the last cooler one was in 1993. August 2017 was just below average, not by much.
  2. August 2003 at 18.3 CET, was the joint fifth hottest in CET series, so still a notable warm anomaly.
  3. April 2020 comes in with a CET of 10.4, which not as insanely warm as 2007 and 2011 (the all time record holder) were, it was still the tied fifth warmest April in the 362 year long CET record, which puts into perspective how notably warm April 2020 was. April 2020 was also the fifth "notably warm" April since and including 2007. I would call an April CET in double figures as notably warm, and there have been five of them in the 14 years from 2007 to 2020, which goes to show how common really warm Aprils have become in recent years, especially as there were no double figure April CETs between 1987 and 2007.
  4. Again we avoid a cold April - it is actually a massive 31 years since the last time we had an April that could reasonably be classed as significantly cold - (CET under 7*C). The coldest April of recent times was 7.2*C in 2012. April has certainly been devoid of anything notably cold for over 30 years now. This year is turning out quite the opposite and we could well be looking at another April CET in double figures. Double figure April CETs are certainly notably warm and there have been four of them in the last 13 years, and 2020 almost looks certain to join the list, which shows how notably warm Aprils have often been in recent times. When you look back, cold Aprils tend to occur following on from winters that had notable cold spells in them - April 1986 was notably cold after a very severe February. April 1983 was also cold after a cold February. April 1978 was cold following on from a slightly below average January and a fairly cold February. Further back April 1970 was also cold after all five months from Nov 1969 to March 1970 were generally on the cold side. April 1956 was cold after a severe February. April 1941 was also cold after a cold winter, especially January. April 1936 was cold after the previous December and February were on the cold side. Looking at all this, it appears that good cold spells in the preceding winter months increase the chances of a cold April, although there was an exception that 1989 did deliver a cold April after a very mild December to March period, although it appears that it is very rare to get a cold April after very mild winter months like this winter just gone has had.
  5. No, had February 2020 been a common year (28 day) month, it would have had a CET of 6.34*C, but the figure of 5.1 for the 29th brought the CET to exactly 6.3*C.
  6. Another more extreme version of August 2008 was August 2004 - warm overall but a washout.
  7. Most runs from what I can see have a mild sector through the UK on the 29th.
  8. June and July 2012 were both below average, though August 2012 was actually slightly above average, meaning that summer 2012 with a CET of 15.2, was a slightly cooler than average summer overall but not that cool by historical standards. For a properly cool summer I would say it needs an overall CET below 15.0*C; summer 2011 managed this, with an overall CET of 14.8, with all months of June, July and August coming out below average that year.
  9. We have only had five significantly colder than average Marches since 1988 and they were 2018, 2013 (notably so), 2006, 2001, and 1996, so I do not know where people are getting the idea from of colder Marches being common in recent times; I would call five in 32 years certainly not a good showing for colder Marches.
  10. Does anyone have any idea why widespread fog is such a rare commodity in the UK winter weather these days? Although snow is the white stuff that covers the ground, fog is actually the white stuff that fills the air away from surfaces. I do not know when there was last widespread fog when the whole air was white with fog more than 50 yards away. The only place that I have ever found "proper fog" in recent years is over high ground, I have seen instances in recent times where the air is white with fog more than 100 yards away on higher ground only with good elevation, but very rarely at low levels. It seems that today, elevation is required to see either the ground or the air white from snow or fog.
  11. It is often the case when the UK does get snow, that some parts of the country do considerably better than others and while some part of the country may see a good snowfall, only 100-200 miles away may see nothing. Most of the snow in the UK does fall and accumulate on higher ground, and with elevation snow events are always more impressive. It is actually a very rare event for a large part of our country and especially at low levels to see snow at the same time. Another winter weather type that appears to have disappeared from low levels in recent winters is widespread fog. I mean a true winter fog, when the whole air and atmosphere is white. Snow is a white stuff that falls and covers the ground and surfaces, whereas fog is the white stuff that fills the air and atmosphere away from the ground and surfaces. Fog has certainly been a rare commodity in most recent winters.
  12. The statistics show that a proper cold winter could occur in 2009-10, a decade ago, on the back of a fairly cold one the year before. Then following on from that we had the severe cold in Dec 2010, then two years later we had a number of cold spells in 2012-13 and then the very cold March that year. That said the seven winters since then make an exceptionally grim showing with only 2017-18 that was close to the average overall and most of the others being well above average with little in the way of cold snaps in them let alone cold spells, and 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been a absolute disaster in what they have served up, given that we are close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly, so these last two winters that we have had close to solar minimum look a sign that it is no longer realistically possible for us to see another 2010 / 2013 etc. If 2018-19 and 2019-20 had have happened when the background signals were poorer, such as near solar maximum, combined with a westerly QBO, and a strong ENSO anomaly then the future situation of UK winters would have appeared less worrying, but the fact that close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly has produced winters as devoid of cold weather as 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been, then it just shows that something is badly wrong and has changed significantly since 2013.
  13. Given the way that 2018-19 and 2019-20 have turned out and how devoid of cold weather they have been, it makes me less optimistic about next winter. Also 2014-15 had a well established strong easterly QBO but it was still near or a touch above average. Surely next winter cannot be as poor as these last two, but given how rubbish these two winters on the trot have been close to solar minimum, it could well struggle to be even as cold as 2017-18 was.
  14. Looking back to 2008, winter 2007-08 was close to a solar minimum, and in fact had an easterly QBO (more so than this winter), so I would have thought that winter had a chance of being cold, but it turned out quite the opposite, with the only colder periods that winter coming from mid latitude blocks. The only thing that I could find an answer as to what went wrong in the 2007-08 winter was that it had a strong La Nina (strong ENSO anomalies either way are generally not conducive to cold in the UK). On top of that, prior to 2008 we had winter 2005-06 that was close to average, and prior to that we had some winters that, although overall were milder than average, were not without their colder moments, like 2004-05 was, and I believe 2003-04 and 2002-03 were similar. To make the seven winters since 2012-13 look more rubbish, we have not even had one of the milder than average ones still not without their moments (albeit 2014-15 which was just near or a touch above average). The UK's last winter that was milder than average overall (close to 5*C CET) but not without its colder moments, I would say was 2011-12. After 2008 we did have some cold spells in 2008-09, the cold winter of 2009-10, the severe spell in Dec 2010, then another good winter for cold spells in 2012-13. Since then only winter 2017-18 was close to average, most of the rest have been very mild with little in the way of cold outbreaks in them, which is a very poor showing indeed in the seven winters since 2012-13, and on top of that, to get two ridiculously above average winters (2018-19 and 2019-20) close to solar minimum without a strong ENSO anomaly and not too westerly QBOs just puts into perspective that things are getting more desperate than they were this time in 2008. Background signals should at least have suggested that either this winter or the one last year, should at least have had a reasonable chance of delivering more in the way of cold spells than in any winter since 2012-13, but they have both turned out quite the opposite. This winter and the one last year certainly bring serious concerns as to why solar minimum winters without strong ENSO anomalies have still delivered next to nothing, which certainly should make anyone think that it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of cold weather to develop in the UK, and certainly should make anyone believe that a winter like 2017-18 may be regarded as "severe" in the post 2013 era, and the modern version of 2009-10. More to the point, after all, most winters of the last 32 years have been milder than what was the long term average before then, with only 1990-91, 1995-96, 2008-09, 2009-10, Dec 2010 and winter 2012-13 standing out as bringing colder winters or severe spells in the last 32 years, so this is all a very poor showing ever since 1988, and with two awful winters in 2018-19 and 2019-20 close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly clearly suggests how desperate it is, and that it is very likely that none of the above colder winters or spells mentioned in the last 32 years are ever possible again.
  15. There is something seriously wrong with the UK's winter weather patterns given how the winters of 2019-20 and 2018-19 have panned out with the background signals being more favourable than they were in say 2013-14 (solar max, westerly QBO) and 2015-16 (strong El Nino, westerly QBO) and possibly 2016-17 (still a poorer solar signal and westerly QBO) for colder UK winter weather. We are now in lower solar activity than in 2017-18, albeit the QBO was more easterly that winter than this one.
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