karyo

Exactly! And the exciting cold synoptics don't look at the calendar.

Guys, just focus on the next 2 days and ignore the low at the end of the week. Even the track of Tuesday's little shortwave is not decided yet so don't get overexcited for something so far away.

That's true but strong enough to keep us on the north side of the jet which presents wintry opportunities.

Yes, that's an improvement to the earlier output. By the way, the ECM is a huge relief as it prolongs the cold spell with the southerly tracking lows

At least the north looks like remaining cold and wintry. Could be worse.

I wouldn't worry about rain anywhere.

Agreed. We jest need the easterly to have a long sea track for those features to form. By Thursday we see the isobars coming from Benelux which is a short sea track. That's why I think Wednesday is the best day for the convective easterly as this currently stand.

It is moving west/southwest and the heavier precipitation is where the warm and cold front meet which is slightly south of our region. If you see the 60 hour chart this point is in south Wales. A slight adjustment west can bring it to our region but we need to see this happen pronto in the models as it is less that 48 hours away.

Yes, the main thing is to stay cold. The 0z had the low further west which is not good for the longevity of the cold spell. So that's a good move from the 6z and the ICON agrees.

Yes, not what we want to see re: Tuesday. On the plus side it places the late week low further south and east which keeps us cold.

I am only talking about what I see in the models for Tuesday. Yesterday's models were more favourable for us. Still time to change.

I never use this chart as it is very misleading - it overdoes precipitation. Use the net weather one here and you will see what I mean: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs Also the Aprege: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=330 And the ECM from the Icelandic Met Office: http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec They all show the path as Lincolnshire into Mids into South Wales. Of course it may change is later output but as things stand we are not in the path.

Looking at the precipitation charts from different models it looks like the feature that comes from the north sea on Tuesday morning will largely miss us. Lincolnshire, Midlands, south Wales seem to be the favoured track. This may still change but the fact they all pretty much agree is not good news. After that we have to rely on showers and the best day o far looks like it is going to be Wednesday. By Thursday the proximity of the low coming from the south looks like pushing the shower activity to Northeast England and Scotland with us mainly dry.

I posted in the MO thread 7 minutes ago and my post is still there! Woohoo!

Tell me now, that we should be happy for the daffodils! Hopefully, the models have over reated to a signal and they will correct the low southwards from tomorrow.

Not a great ECM from 96 hours onwards. The southeasterly sets in earlier which is not good for our shower activity and the uppers riser by the end of the week.

I agree. Unless the models pick up something more organised that ideally happens when it is dark. The models looked better for the end of next week and next weekend with shortwaves coming down from the north but today we are seeing the appearance of that ugly low from the south.

Like I said before, I am looking forward to the intense cold and the snow flurries. As long as the hills get a good covering I am happy.

I have noticed that the GFS shows most of the shower activity during the afternoon hours, helped by the sun. Then overnight mainly dry. This is also what happened in March 2013 which meant that snow only settled briefly and then the sun made short work of it. You can still keep the snow in the shade though.

The more south the low stays the better. Preferably over France or up to the channel at the maximum. You can see how the precipitation charts dry up for our region in the second half of the week as the low moves closer. It can also give a premature end to our cold spell. The UKMO 144 hour chart is a worry in that regard.

Yes, the same happened in 2013 and the Pennines kept us dry here. By contrast, the convective easterly had showers crossing the hills with ease.

This could deliver for Wirral but for much of the region it will be a few snow flakes in the wind due to the God awful rain shadow effect. Snow shower activity also dies a death when a low approaches from the south while the Midlands and Wales get burried in the snow.

I just bought a new winter coat in the sale - bargain! The euro 4 is already showing light snow showers across us for Monday morning! I won't post the chart for those of you who are boycotting it. ;-)

Good news! The 6z ICON has also upgraded the precipitation associated with this feature.

It is the only one that brings the trough here so I will take it! haha You should do fine with the gfs projection which takes it to Cumbria