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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Clouding over now in Brighton as those heavy showers from the channel are approaching.
  2. karyo
    Yes, I would welcome some sea mist now. Hardly any breeze today so far.
  3. karyo
    Tonight 5 hours look unlikely! I used to live in Manchester Piccadilly and I know how oppsessive the heat can be in the city centre as there are practically no green spaces.
  4. karyo
    A sultry night in Brighton! I took half a paracetamol at about 1am and managed to sleep an hour later. Off and on sleep until 7:30. Tonight will certainly be worse and even Tuesday night doesn't look much better.
  5. karyo
    Tropical storm Colin has caught the NHC and the models by surprise! 24 hours ago nothing indicated that those scattered showers on the south Carolina coast would develop into a tropical storm. Colin is now moving northeast to north Carolina.
  6. karyo
    So we could have another active hurricane season.
  7. karyo
    I don't see winter in spring. I think winter has completely vanished as a season. Spring and autumn have extended and taken its place.
  8. karyo
    Now the we know that the winter is dead in the water, I hope this super strong pv continues well into spring. It may be proved to be good for the Arctic ice.
  9. karyo
    Thanks mate. Yes, for a few more weeks. I wish I was in Greece though haha
  10. karyo
    Yes, another major snowfall for Athens and the eastern mainland! The Aegean sea becomes a snowmachine with the northeasterly wind. The last major snowfall was February 2021 so not long ago.
  11. karyo
    I agree although quite often the UK summers can be too humid for my liking. But yes, it is good that we are not getting those horrendous heatwaves yet. Sadly, it is only a matter of time with the way the planet is warming.
  12. karyo
    Agreed! No matter what the teleconnections show we always end up mild or average at best. An earlier post mentioned the daffodils flowering already. I remember first seeing this in January 1998 (strong el nino year) and thinking that's a rare event. Well, now it is nearly a yearly occurence as our winters have been taken over by the extension of autumn and spring.
  13. karyo
    Worrying update from spaceweather.com Solar cycle 25 is heating up and the sunspot count is consistently exceeding the official forecasts. In fact, in late December the sunspot count was two times higher than the forecast! This is bad news for cold lovers and as experts now believe that this cycle will be much stronger than was originally expected. A quiet solar cycle would have helped a bit with global temperatures but now with a stronger sun and CO2 levels continuing to increase, we are likely to see more heat records broken and of course ice loss.
  14. karyo
    Even if that happens, another variable can go wrong that can prevent a cold winter from happening. Climate change is extra ugly for cold lovers.
  15. karyo
    It looks to me, that the chances of a SSW happening at a time that can salvage what is left of this winter, are fading fast!
  16. karyo
    I think the difference is that the GFS operational places that cold high further north. The ensembles have it fuerher south with westerlies over the UK which is closer to what the ECM is showing.
  17. karyo
    The thing is spring is not 3-4 months away. The days are already growing now and by February the sun gains enough strength to melt any snow that settles (apart from the heavy falls which are rare). This has always been the case but the warming trend that we are experiencing practically makes February the start of spring.
  18. karyo
    All the models look poor this morning but the ECM is particularly hard to swallow with the ominous rise of pressure over Iberia! We have seen this happen many times in recent years, this is a very stabborn high and the models are very good at handling it once it appears. The sun remains very active (www.spaceweather.com). In fact, solar activity in this cycle is exceeding the forecasts and it looks like we will reach solar maximum much quicker than first thought. This is particularly disappointing for me, because the last solar cycle gave us two good winters (2008/9 & 2009/10) and it looks like this one has failed to even give us one!
  19. karyo
    I couldn't agree more! The sun went from being relatively quiet, one or two sunspots and solar flux in the 70s, to having 10 sunspot groups, M class flares and a solar flux of 137! When the activity increases so much the jet moves north. This has been noticed many times before and it is bad luck that it happened just as we were about to enter a cold spell. Having such an active sun in December is the worst possible scenario for cold.
  20. karyo
    The clear difference with the ECM is that the Atlantic lows manage to enter the Med which helps push the cold westwards. The other major models are not so keenm on this. For example, the GFS only shows a shallower low crossing Iberia but then it fizzles out. It has been very difficult so far to push the jet stream over the Med (in fact the last few winters have been dominated by high pressure) and I am not sure whether it can be achieved that easily this time. Also, increasing solar activity may sadly work against us with this.
  21. karyo
    It looks like it will hit eastern Sicily and Calabria tomorrow into Friday. There's already been serious flooding in Catania yesterday
  22. karyo
    Yes, I was expecting more from October.
  23. karyo
    It looks like this hurricane season has died early.
  24. karyo
    For me, this is a perfect example of a hurricane season that is very active but it lacks memorable moments. Most of the activity stays out in the oceans. The Gulf of Mexico after earlier activity has gone dead.
  25. karyo
    According to spaceweather, this cycle is already more active than the forecasts. Not what I wanted to read with my morning coffee
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