karyo
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Everything posted by karyo
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Started to snow all of a sudden in Piccadilly. Looking at the radar it won't last long.
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What is interesting is that snow fell and settled in places close to the coast with upper air temperatures higher than -5c. All due to lack of sea influence and intensity of precipitation. This is why the continent easily manages to get snow events out of marginal situations.
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50% of this year so far is spotless. That's impressive!
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Nice to see some areas that missed out last week getting the snow today. Just sleety rain here, even if it turns to snow it won't make any impact. Once again the Met Office didn't do well. The initial warning was for areas further south (north Mids, south Pennines) and then they adjusted it northwards last night.
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The track of Emma was probably a symptom rather than the cause. I think the cause was the bitter cold air reaching the mid-north Atlantic which shifted the negative NAO too far west.. So now we are back in boring weather but I guess at least we had an exciting week.
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Indeed and it shows how much longer the cold spell could have lasted. It makes me a bit sad actually.
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Agreed! Looking at the 30hpa level it still looks rather interesting. In about 10 days time what's left of the vortex is expected to transfer to Siberia with a vague high pressure ridge further west.
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Light snow giving a dusting on all surfaces.
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
karyo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I hope you are right and the cold makes a comeback. The 12z ICON brings the cold back from Thursday next week which is a notable shift in the earlier output. A snow event looks possible by Saturday http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&map=0&archive=0- 1,198 replies
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I think you will do all right tonight.
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Starting to snow here again although the radar hardly shows anything over Manchester. The 12z gfs is good news for the southwest of the region as the band of snow reaches those areas before moving to the west towards Ireland.
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Both the north Wales and Sheffield areas of snow seem to have expanded but nothing in Manchester. Maybe I am under a rainshadow now that the precipitation is not showery.
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That's right, I also saw this happen in 2013. The wind is not helping things.
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Snowing lightly here again.
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Some intensification in the area south of Sheffield and east of Stoke. It is moving west/northwest.
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Looking good.
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Yes, I see what you mean. I also don't think it takes into account hills etc.
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Have a look here http://meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall# I am not sure how reliable it is.
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It is because of the strong wind.
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True and that reminds me of March 2013. I remember in April when things started to get a bit milder and it started to rain it felt unusual to see rain. lol
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West according to the models.
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The band of snow is now edging into southern parts of Lincolnshire although it appears to be weakening a bit.
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The good news is that with solar minimum approaching, potent cold spells like this one are increasingly likely for the next few years.
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It looks like staying easterly till Saturday. To be honest, I want this cold spell to last as long as possible regardless of whether we get any more snow or not.
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The 6z gfs shows a continuous flow of Arctic air into north Atlantic for the next 7 days ago. Should lead to some notable negative anomalies in the sea surface temperatures.
