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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Yes the environment is condusive for that. The track after is not clear but a US landfall for sure.
  2. karyo
    Ian is strengthening in the central Caribbean. He should reach hurricane status by Monday according to the NHC, well before making landfall in western Cuba. Central pressure: 1003 mb Sustained winds: 45 mph
  3. karyo
    Tropical depression 10 has formed between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde islands. It is moving northwards currently but it should shift westwards in a few days so unlikely to reach the Canary islands. However, the Canary islands may get some showery activity associated with this system.
  4. karyo
    Today, all the models have followed the ECM/ICON lead by shifting the track of 98L east. Cuba-southern Florida-Atlantic. Only the GFS still takes the storm to the GOM but even that has shifted east considerably.
  5. karyo
    Up to this morning all the models were taking 98L to the GOM with a US landfall. However, the 12z ECM and ICON have shifted the track east with the storm passing over Cuba, southern Florida and then the Atlantic. As a result, it develops less due to land interaction.
  6. karyo
    It didn't set up the alarm clock! The question is will the GOM wake up? That's what can produce the creme de la creme of hurricanes. 98L has a chance to make it to the GOM but we will know by the weekend when the system properly forms and the models get a better idea of the atmospheric pattern ahead of it.
  7. karyo
    Yes, at long last something meaningful is showing up! Both the ECM and the GFS agree on a hurricane in the GOM in 9 days time! Still very far away of course to have any certainty in this but the NHC has already identified the area of disturbed weather that is currently southeast of the Leeward islands.
  8. karyo
    I wonder what it will take to get a hurricane in the GOM. It is completely dead!
  9. karyo
    My area has a 30% chance for elevated thunderstorms for this evening. I guess the closer you are to the channel the better.
  10. karyo
    Indeed, there should be some activity left for the next few weeks but normally it nose dives in October so a below average season is likely now.
  11. karyo
    Have we already seen the peak of this year's hurricane season? If so, then it is the quietest I can remember! Particularly notable that the GOM has been dead almost throughout.
  12. karyo
    I will be in England (Brighton) until the middle of October and that's my main chance to experience autumn. After that Greece for a few weeks so hoping for some Athenian storms but it is more likely to be dry and warm (with the occassional hot day) given recent trends.
  13. karyo
    Yes, 5am I was woken by it! It was raining for much of the morning. Did you get any?
  14. karyo
    Good to see that many areas of Greece have seen some welcome rain! A valuable respite from the ever lengthening fire season.
  15. karyo
    Yes, but the start of the hurricane season was nearly 3 months ago.
  16. karyo
    The disturbance in the GOM ended up being a flop and the other one in cabo verde looks less healthy today. We are still waiting for this season to ignite...
  17. karyo
    It is organising in the Bay of Campeche. 60% chance of development according to NHC.
  18. karyo
    Cloudy with moderate rain in Brighton.
  19. karyo
    It looks like a very quiet August! Quite remarkable under La Nina conditions.
  20. karyo
    None of the major models make much of this disturbance.
  21. karyo
    Indeed! August and September are peak months so the quiet can't go much longer. I check the NHC site most days and I can't remember another summer season with such a protracted period without any areas of concern on the map.
  22. karyo
    July ended up a very quiet month and things don't look like picking up in the next week or so. All the forecasts went for an above average season. I guess the Saharan dust is suppressing any activity.
  23. karyo
    This is turning out to be the worst summer ever for storms! I have ceertainly seen more storms in cooler summers
  24. karyo
    Just enough rain to dampen the ground here and it has stopped. It looks like that's it for today here.
  25. karyo
    Raining in Brighton but no thunder.
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