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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Julia is making a Nicaragua landfall today as a category 1 hurricane. After that, it all looks quiet.
  2. karyo
    TD13 continues to hug the Venezuala coast but as it heads westwards it should avoid the land for a while and become Tropical Storm Julia and then possibly get into hurricane strength before hitting Nicaragua. After that it will fizzle out but both the GFS and ECM show the remnants of Julie eventually getting into the southwest GOM. So far the models don't show much of a reorganisation after that but this may change in subsequent output.
  3. karyo
    This afternoon the distarbance is looking much more organised and the NHC has upped the chances of development to 60%.
  4. karyo
    My eyes are on the one southeast of the Windward islands. Although it is currently given less chance of development, is in an interesting position with the caribbean on the horizon.
  5. karyo
    Once again we see the storm strengthening more than the forecasts. Only 24 hours ago it was expected to remain a tropical storm until landfall.
  6. karyo
    Yes, I don't know why they still talk about cat 4 when their 7am update says maximum sustained winds 155mph, central pressure 937mb.
  7. karyo
    Crazy! And there are still a few hours till landfall. I think the approximate landfall time is 6pm (UK)
  8. karyo
    Impressive that it strengthened so much in just 4 hours! I think though that cat 5 is unlikely unless he stalls over water for a time before making landfall.
  9. karyo
    It looks to be turning slightly to the northeast.
  10. karyo
    Ian in re-strengthening! The 2pm update from NHC shows 120mph maximum sustained winds and 955mb. Moving north at just 10mph
  11. karyo
    The 11am NHC update shows that Ian has weakened somewhat. Muximum sustained winds 115mph The atmospheric pressure has also risen to 963mb However, he is now back over water and the forward speed has slowed down to just 10mph. From now on he will be a slow moving beast!
  12. karyo
    Yes, that's true. There are several recent examples of the intensification exceeding what the models were predicting.
  13. karyo
    I think cat5 is unlikely because he will not have very long time over the GOM waters. From western Cuba to southwest Florida there is a relatively short stretch of water. If the track was more to the west then there would be more time. But the overnight models (and now also the 6z ones) continue to shift the track a touch further east. As things stand this morning, the chances for Ian to emegre in the Atlantic (after Florida) have increased.
  14. karyo
    He will be over land for the next few hours so we will have to see if this will stop the strengthening and to what a degree. Further strengthening is expected once he emerges over the GOM waters.
  15. karyo
    Yes but even if a tropical depression forms, it is likely to be short lived because of wind shear. Also, it is expected to start to move north so not of interest to any land.
  16. karyo
    There is a notable shift south in most models. As things stand now, I'd say there is more chance for a landfall somewhere around Cape Coral. Tampa must be praying that this is correct as yesterday's ECM was a nightmare for Tampa bay. ECM, UKMO and ICON then take Ian slowly over the peninsula to the Atlantic coast and then a slow move northwards with a potential landfall in Georgia but a much weaker storm by then. The GFS out on its own as usual, with a track further north and west but even that has shifted towards the euros to some degree.
  17. karyo
    Ian is continuing to strengthen as he is nearing the Isle of Youth just south of west Cuba! Maximum sustained winds: 100mph Minimum central pressure: 972mb
  18. karyo
    The 12z ECM is similar to the GFS, just slightly further west. The UKMO is on its own with a much more easterly track.
  19. karyo
    There is still uncertainty about Ian's track. The 0z GFS and ECM keep him to the west coast of Florida while the UKMO and ICON have him crossing the Florida peninsula and emerging in the east coast. They all agree though that he will be slow moving so flooding is likely to be extensive.
  20. karyo
    The 12z ECM is very similar to the UKMO and ICON. The GFS is on its own.
  21. karyo
    The 12z UKMO and ICON are out. They are in good agreement with the track of Ian, from western Cuba into the southeastern GOM and landfall somewhere in southwest Florida. This is notably further south and east than the NHC which has a penhandle landfall. Also worth noting that both the UKMO and ICON show a very slow moving hurricane over Florida which would lead to a lot of flooding.
  22. karyo
    Ian has not strengthened much so far today, I wonder what is holding him back as conditions look ideal.
  23. karyo
    Big differences in the overnight major model output regarding Ian's track! The GFS is on its own with a much more westerly track, taking Ian over the western tip of Cuba and then northwards with a landfall in the Florida penhandle. The UKMO, ICON and ECM are much further east with a landfall somewhere in the west and big impacts for much of the peninsula (less so for the penhandle). Ian is still a tropical storm in the caribbean and hasn't developed much overnight but intensification is expected to start today.
  24. karyo
    Exactly! Such speedy intensification is not normal and it is catching many people by surprise.
  25. karyo
    Florida declared state of emergency for next week!
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