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Everything posted by karyo

  1. Today is the day that I have a good chance for a thunderstorm! The northern part of the Adriatic is coming to life as I type this. 🙂

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    2. karyo


      Yes the western side of the Adriatic is having lots of fun. I hope it makes it here as it has gone humid.

    3. karyo


      Distant storms last night with frequent lightning but nothing overhead. The activity is slowly moving away southwards today and high pressure taking over again sadly. 

    4. Rush2112


      Yes, the Adriatic storms seemed to decay as they moved out towards Croatia.  Monday and Tuesdays outlook for next week may give rise for a bit of excitement for you, as always we'll wait and see.

  2. Humberto is going to stay a fish. The NHC has once again adjusted the track east .
  3. We now have tropical depression 9. However development is looking slow for the foreseeable.
  4. Unbelievably the 12z still doesn't fall in line with the other models. It hardly makes anything of Humberto. Both the ICON and UKMO have a storm just east of Florida and then moving close to the Carolina coast.
  5. It is remarkable that the GFS has not woken up yet. I guess it will come in line with the other models in the 12z output. As for the Gulf of Mexico, it is almost as if someone has placed a hurricane shield to it and the storms can't enter. First Dorian and now this one, were forecast to enter the Gulf but then things changed. The ECM has another hurricane in its later output which looks like heading for the Gulf but the re-curves north.
  6. The 6z GFS continues to be on its own. The next NHC update will be interesting.
  7. Oh well, best to have low expectations to avoid another winter disappointment.
  8. The GFS is on its own. ICON, UKMO and ECM are all similar in keeping the storm on the Atlantic side. The NHC has not caught up with the models yet as they are still saying that it will enter the Gulf. They were behind the models with Dorian too.
  9. Going to Croatia for 2 weeks. I hope I get to see some thunder there.

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      Flying again, tut tut....

    3. Rush2112


      AccuWeather predicting thunder for Zadar on Wednesday. Fingers crossed.

    4. karyo


      Yes, please!

  10. Nice to see us reaching 70% spotless days! Will we manage to maintain this figure or even improve a bit? It is possible that activity will start slowly increasing as we approach the end of the year.
  11. It also happened in September 2017. I was in the Pyrenees then and there was fresh snow to just over 2000 metres. The same system then gave snow to the Alps. It looks good but it doesn't take much for this early snow to melt though.
  12. So shall we expect the hurricane activity to be suppressed for the remainder of the season?
  13. A bit of a change and a bit more in line with what the models are showing.
  14. The NHC has reduced the chances for the tropical wave developing to 40%. However, both the 0z and 6z GFS make it a hurricane after it passes the Leeward islands and continues northwestwards. The ECM has a similar track up to 240 hours but the low looks less developed.
  15. Both the GFS and ECM slowly develop this system as it approaches the Leeward islands. Then the GFS takes it north and it looks like a fish. At 240 hours on the ECM is hard to see where it would go.
  16. It looks like Dorian is taking a wobble towards land now. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/satellite?play=1
  17. The NHC has adjusted Dorian's track closer to the coastline. He is still moving slowly north but expected to pick up a northeasterly track today. How soon this happen will determine how close it gets to the mainland.
  18. Looking at this update there is a possibility for a slightly below average September which statistically bodes well for the winter ahead. Early days though.
  19. According to the latest update, it is now moving at 1mph. Not much but at least a sign that it is starting to move again. Hopefully the speed will accelerate and the storm will move off the Bahamas.
  20. More or less all the models overestimated the westerly track of the hurricane. The ECM was the first to stall it east of Florida (until then most were taking it over the peninsula and some even into the GOM). The slight corrections to the east have continued in the overnight models. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are still highly likely to get hit by Dorian around the weekend.
  21. Indeed! It almost feels unfair that they had to deal with the stalling storm on their own while neighbouring nations escape.
  22. A more notable shift east in Dorians track from the 18z icon. I guess the early stall of the storm today has saved Florida. Poor Bahamas though...
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