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karyo

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karyo last won the day on July 30 2009

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    Brighton (currently)
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    holidays, late nights out, a bit of reading, sunbathing, countryside, enjoying the weather.

    Favourite weather types: Cold and Colder!
    Particularly deslike: mild and wet... and Darren Bett

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  1. On top of the ENSO, what I find really interesting is how well above average are the SSTs in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. In particular, the key area from the west coast of Africa, the Cabo Verde islands and all the way to the Leeward islands and the carribean. If those positive anomalies are maintained for the coming months, they are likely to encourage a lot of tropical storm activity. Even last summer, despite the developing en nino, we saw a lot of tropical activity as the warm Atlantic managed to overide to some extent the effects of the El Nino. This summer, with the El Nino out of the picture there should be less shear and more storms likely to make it to the carribean and the Gulf of Mexico.
  2. Don Yes Don, chasing cold spells has become tiring. A lot of effort for very small return. If it was a job, we would give it up!
  3. Don The Met Office may as well stop publishing those updates! They are always playing catch up with developments. I guess climate change is overriding a lot of factors that can lead to a cold spell.
  4. @lassie23 Yes, they usually give the kiss of death to any cold spell!
  5. Basically the mild spell is getting upgraded in duration every day! If you go back 10 days or so, they were saying that the weather would be dominated by high pressure and cold temperatures. Any mild unsettled spells were going to be brief and mainly in the south. Then they went for a change to less cold/milder weather until the end of January before the cold high re-establishes itself with winds from the north and east. Then in recent days, the mild unsettled weather got extended by approximately one more week... and in today's update until there is a further extension until the middle of February at the very least! Yes, we are chasing a rainbow!
  6. Don't worry guys, the Met Office update will flip to something colder again before the winter is over. Whether the update will be followed by a cold spell is another matter of course...
  7. If they expected the easterly to be potent, they would mention snow showers on eastern coasts.
  8. It sounds like they are expecting a mid latitude high in February, so Atlantic systems will still be affecting the north from time to time and high pressure further south. Hardly something to get excited about.
  9. No season is getting colder, everything is warming up sadly!
  10. Amazing to see how active this hurricane season is, considering the strengthening el nino. I guess it shows that the very warm Atlantic can override some of the el nino effects. certainly something that we will be seeing more and more in the future with the seas getting warmer.
  11. A week later and Don is still going and roughly located in the same part of north Atlantic . Not expected to impact land. A tropical low has formed in central Atlantic and although there is dry air to the north of it, warmer than average SSTs should help it to gradually strengthen into a tropical depression. Finally, the Weather Company has updated their seasonal forecast and (like the Colorado University) they expect an above average hurricane season. They are basing this upgrade on the strong startr to the season coupled with the very warm Atlantic waters.
  12. And we have Dom in the centre of north Atlantic. No risk to land but he may come close to the Azores at some point. It looks like the warm Atlantic will produce a number of storms this season. The area around western Africa and cabo verde also looks quite active.
  13. It will be interesting to see if the very warm SSTs can dominate the atmospheric pattern. An insight to future El Nino seasons that will more and more often coinside with Atlantic marine heatwaves.
  14. Colorado State University has updated their Atlantic hurricane season forecast. They are now going for an above average season, they expect that the warm Atlantic SSTs will override some of the effects of the El Nino.
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