karyo
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Posts posted by karyo
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Accuweather has issued their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. A combination of a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina is expected to give a lot of fuel to the hurricane season.
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On top of the ENSO, what I find really interesting is how well above average are the SSTs in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. In particular, the key area from the west coast of Africa, the Cabo Verde islands and all the way to the Leeward islands and the carribean. If those positive anomalies are maintained for the coming months, they are likely to encourage a lot of tropical storm activity.
Even last summer, despite the developing en nino, we saw a lot of tropical activity as the warm Atlantic managed to overide to some extent the effects of the El Nino. This summer, with the El Nino out of the picture there should be less shear and more storms likely to make it to the carribean and the Gulf of Mexico.
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Don Yes Don, chasing cold spells has become tiring. A lot of effort for very small return. If it was a job, we would give it up!
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Don The Met Office may as well stop publishing those updates! They are always playing catch up with developments.
I guess climate change is overriding a lot of factors that can lead to a cold spell.
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It is a downgrade all round! lol
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Yes, they usually give the kiss of death to any cold spell!
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Basically the mild spell is getting upgraded in duration every day! If you go back 10 days or so, they were saying that the weather would be dominated by high pressure and cold temperatures. Any mild unsettled spells were going to be brief and mainly in the south. Then they went for a change to less cold/milder weather until the end of January before the cold high re-establishes itself with winds from the north and east. Then in recent days, the mild unsettled weather got extended by approximately one more week... and in today's update until there is a further extension until the middle of February at the very least! Yes, we are chasing a rainbow!
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Don't worry guys, the Met Office update will flip to something colder again before the winter is over.
Whether the update will be followed by a cold spell is another matter of course...
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1 hour ago, DOdo said:
The reality is it hasn't. At this stage they would have a reasonably good idea of what is going to happen next month its less than two weeks away , Saying that it could change tomorrow but I doubt it. I am curious to know if we have this easterly how potent it will be.
If they expected the easterly to be potent, they would mention snow showers on eastern coasts.
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It sounds like they are expecting a mid latitude high in February, so Atlantic systems will still be affecting the north from time to time and high pressure further south. Hardly something to get excited about.
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No season is getting colder, everything is warming up sadly!
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Amazing to see how active this hurricane season is, considering the strengthening el nino. I guess it shows that the very warm Atlantic can override some of the el nino effects. certainly something that we will be seeing more and more in the future with the seas getting warmer.
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A week later and Don is still going and roughly located in the same part of north Atlantic . Not expected to impact land.
A tropical low has formed in central Atlantic and although there is dry air to the north of it, warmer than average SSTs should help it to gradually strengthen into a tropical depression.
Finally, the Weather Company has updated their seasonal forecast and (like the Colorado University) they expect an above average hurricane season. They are basing this upgrade on the strong startr to the season coupled with the very warm Atlantic waters.
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And we have Dom in the centre of north Atlantic. No risk to land but he may come close to the Azores at some point.
It looks like the warm Atlantic will produce a number of storms this season. The area around western Africa and cabo verde also looks quite active.
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8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Interesting, I expect it to be a below average season unless the El Nino is weak or we get a Modoki type El Nino
It will be interesting to see if the very warm SSTs can dominate the atmospheric pattern. An insight to future El Nino seasons that will more and more often coinside with Atlantic marine heatwaves.
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Colorado State University has updated their Atlantic hurricane season forecast. They are now going for an above average season, they expect that the warm Atlantic SSTs will override some of the effects of the El Nino.
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That was quite a wild experience! After a wild night of rain and wind i woke up to find no electricity or WiFi signal on Tuesday. The house I was staying in thankfully didn't get damaged but there was a lot of flooding in Napier and Hastings and fallen trees. Napier still has no electricity but the flood waters a receding now. The Art Deco festival which was scheduled fir this weekend has been cancelled, this is a huge economic loss for the city.
Thankfully, the airport is not affected so I am leaving for Melbourne today.
Something I have to highlight is how well local people are dealing with this disaster. I queued at the local supermarket for an hour on Tuesday and despite the mile long queue nobody was agitated or disorderly. People were chatting to each other and keeping the spirits reasonably high. Also, with no traffic lights in operation, the traffic on the roads appears to work fine with drivers being curtious and letting other cars in the traffic.
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I woke up at 7am with the sound of heavy rain and it is continuing up to now with no breaks. The wind is picking up too.
The worst rain is forecast to be from late afternoon onwards and it will coincide with gale force winds. Hawkes Bay is expected to get 150mm on coastl areas with up to 400mm on the hills so some flooding is certainly likely.
This is my first ever cyclone so I am quite excited but I hope there won't be too many problems in my area and that the electricitry won't cut off.
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Yes, the North Island continues to see excessive rain. Here in Napier (east coast) it has been raining non-stop for the last 24 hours but there is no flooding thankfully.
The summer hasn't been wet everywhere. The south in particular has been mostly dry. I was in Canterbury region from early December till mid January and it rained only 3 times and mostly light.
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I am in New Zealand now and pleasantly surprised to see Dan Corbet presenting the weather!
I am in Gisborne for a couple of weeks and can't fail to notice the rain shadow effect for the eastern side of the north island while the west and sometimes the northern side of the island gets lots of heavy rain.
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Nicole has transitioned into a tropical storm and is strengthening.
Maximum sustained winds 60mph. Minimal central pressure 992mb
She should become a hurricane by the time she reaches the Bahamas.
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... and we have Nicole with 45mph sustained winds. Nicole is expected to strengthen as it heads west towards Florida. It is very rare to have a storm moving westwards in this location in November!
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The models have upgraded the potential of this system for the second part of the coming week. The forecast track is also interesting, moving slowly north for a time before making a turn to the west/southwest towards Florida.
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Late season bonanza with 2 tropical storms, Martin and Lisa! Martin of no real interest to land but Linda should become a hurricane soon and crash into Guatemala.
Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Accuweather has issued their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. A combination of a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina is expected to give a lot of fuel to the hurricane season.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/94d900bc-eae8-49f2-bdf5-09e2aace931a?utm_source=connatix&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=link