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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    High pressure in the Balkans has become a permanent feature of the last few years regardless of what the QBO and ENSO state is. For example, most parts of Greece had well below average rainfall last winter and I was in short sleeves on most days. The disastrous summer than followed was not a surprise. I was watching a tv interview of a Greek meteorologist after the fires and he said this constant high pressure is the result of climate change and not a temporary feature. He predicted the Balkans and much of the Med is in the process of becoming desert-like.
  2. karyo
    Some model runs take Sam to Eastern Canada!
  3. karyo
    The latest Ecm join the gfs with a recurve north after the leeward islands. It looks to me like the story of this season. Unless the Gulf of Mexico livens up again I can't see another landfall occurring.
  4. karyo
    So far only the ECM shows an interesting mostly westerly track. The GFS sees it as going north like many previous storms.
  5. karyo
    Warm Septembers tend to be followed by mild winters so not what I wanted to see.
  6. karyo
    I was in La Palma in January 2018 and visited many of the volcanic cones from previous eruptions. I stayed in Fuencaliente, in the south of the island. This is for sure the most beautiful of the canary islands, i hope the pine forests survive, the biodiversity in La Palma is unique.
  7. karyo
    After a lot of activity we have a spotless day
  8. karyo
    The models have adjusted Nichola's track south and forward speed has slowed down significantly. This is bad news for Louisiana which is going to get stuck under Nicholas for the next few days. Even as he downgrades later to a tropical depression, there will be plenty of rainfall left especially as he will stay close to the Gulf, feeding him with moisture.
  9. karyo
    The disturbance in the bay of campeche is getting organised. We should easily see a tropical storm out of that. Texas and Louisiana need to watch out as there is the potential of a lot of rain on already saturated ground.
  10. karyo
    That would be interesting. Which model is this?
  11. karyo
    Interesting that this week the ACE is above average based on Larry alone. Then after this week, things are expected to be much quieter. If this proves to be correct then this looks like a rather unexciting September.
  12. karyo
    We are at the peak of the hurricane season and apart from Larry there is nothing else to look at. I wonder what is causing this.
  13. karyo
    The latest NHC update makes this a major hurricane by the weekend. So rapid intensification is expected. With the current model outputs, I think places like the Bermuda and Nova Scotia need to watch this storm.
  14. karyo
    Just crazy development!
  15. karyo
    Wow she strengthened a lot overnight!
  16. karyo
    What about sustained winds?
  17. karyo
    I am starting to doubt whether she can make it to cat 4. I think category 3 is more likely given the fast movement and the modest strengthening so far.
  18. karyo
    The 12z gfs makes a slight adjustment east in the track. Intensity slightly down compared to earlier runs. The 12z ICON broadly the same as the 6z.
  19. karyo
    Both the ICON and GFS 6z downgrade Ida's strength somewhat. This is probably the result of the slight weakening following Cuba. However, they can easily switch to something stronger in the 12z is she intensifies in the next few hours.
  20. karyo
    Yes, Ida doesn't look as healthy today. Cuba has knocked her a bit. Let's see if she starts to intensify in the next update.
  21. karyo
    Ida has now 60mph winds and the pressure has dropped to 995mb! She is looking very healthy too.
  22. karyo
    The NHC is now expecting Ida to make landfall somewhere in Louisiana as a category 3! I wonder if she will slow down a bit in forward speed as she grows larger.
  23. karyo
    It looks like Ida will move through the Gulf of Mexico relatively fast. This is likely to limit somewhat its intensification. If she was moving slowly she would have more chance to become a cat4/5
  24. karyo
    Well, they were all seeing development but most models were going for western Gulf hurricane with an eastern Mexico landfall. Gradually they shifted the track further north and east.
  25. karyo
    That's a good suggestion. It always feels a bit disjointed to lose the early posts once a storm thread is made. It makes it also easier to analyse how the models did with picking up the system before it developed.
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