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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Yes, very good 12z, especially early on!
  2. karyo
    At least then we can forget about the winter and focus on other hobbies. I've spent so many hours last year looking at the models and the stratosphere hoping for the appearance of a decent cold spell that never came.
  3. karyo
    -2.52 based on the 6z which is a relief.
  4. karyo
    Not a good 0z GFS or UKMO for that matter but at least the ECM is much better with at least some high pressure over the Arctic till the end of the month.
  5. karyo
    Agreed!
  6. karyo
    Agreed! Hopefully an overeaction to a signal. The difference to what we were seeing 24 hours ago is outstanding!
  7. karyo
    Indeed, much less high pressure up in the Arctic than the 0z. Also, it projects a southwesterly penetrating well into Russia which can do some serious damage to the fresh snowcover. It is not as bad as the gfs though.
  8. karyo
    The models are going for a mild winter so the OPI and the snow cover are the only positives for us coldies at the moment!
  9. karyo
    But Steve, the ECM has struggled just as much! Compare yesterday's dreamy 12z with the 0z as an example.
  10. karyo
    -1.8 would be a good finishing value but it is a surge upwards which is very worrying!
  11. karyo
    I knew that the 12z gfs was not a good run but I didn't expect such a rise in the index! The UKMO is not great either to be honest. Would it have followed the gfs if it was going further than 144 hours? You can see the high pressure cell that was originally in East Scandinavia slipping into Russia and a westerly taking over to the north of it.
  12. karyo
    Yes, the GEM has generally been looking better for blocking!
  13. karyo
    What are people's thoughts on the 12z gfs? Low heights seem to gradually take control over the Arctic which is quite a change to what it was showing yesterday! Good job we are entering the final third of the month and we can be confident that the OPI will be negative.
  14. karyo
    The 12z gfs is not brilliant as it is bound to do some damage to the fresh snow cover in the European side of Russia and even further east by the month's end. The Arctic high becomes a Russian high and gradually sinks south allowing a westerly/southwesterly. Let's hope it doesn't verify. The ECM also takes a turn for the worse and couldn't be different to yesterday's 12z! Worrying times for the snow cover!
  15. karyo
    The clear view is such a treat tonight!
  16. karyo
    It looks awesome! This eruption is not showing any signs of stopping!
  17. karyo
    That's a brilliant figure!
  18. karyo
    Yes, good to see and a significant difference with the 0z. Watch at 120 hours how much further north the East Scandi-Russian high is and some energy of the Atlantic low cuts under it rathen than push it southeast like the 0z did.
  19. karyo
    Yes, the sense of urgency has gone but it is nearly 11:30am and they haven't updated earthquakes that happened at 2am! Edit: some updates at last! A M5 earthquake around 8pm yesterday and a 4.8 around midnight. Also, a 5.2 at around 3am!
  20. karyo
    Amazing snowcover and forecast! I was a bit concerned with yesterday's gfs bringing westerlies in a good part of Russia but today's forecast puts my mind at ease!
  21. karyo
    Morning MIA, I agree on both counts! I don't know why IMO is taking longer and longer to update the earthquakes. Is there less of an urgency to do it or luck of staff? Who knows...
  22. karyo
    No update from the 0z so they must be skipping it again. However, like bluearmy already mentioned, things are looking good for the next 10 days so maybe yesterday's gfs was too keen to remove those Arctic heights.
  23. karyo
    I am not saying it will wipe it out completely but can do a lot of damage so we may lose the positive snow cover anomalies. Western Russia will lose it's snow cover first if the gfs got it right and as the westerly/southwesterly looks rather deep, the snow loses will extend further east.
  24. karyo
    If it proves correct, it will also wipe out a lot of the snowcover gains in Eurasia!
  25. karyo
    I was watching those Italian weather forecasts (Rai Uno) as a kid and I was fascinated with their detail and professionalism! The ones in Greece were always basic and brief!
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