karyo

For once, I hope the stratospheric warming will not lead to extensive northern blocking. The last thing the (already fragile) Arctic icepack needs is the cold air escaping southwards and mild air coming into the area! Karyo

Unfortunately, that's a big increase in activity! For a fan of the quiet sun like me, today is a bad day! Karyo

It's a significant warming at the 10hpa level but doesn't seem to have a big impact on the 30hpa level. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Karyo

Annoyingly though it has that column of cooler temperatures still underneath it! Karyo

Thank you GP for the detailed update. Can you please explain what you mean by the following extract from your earlier post? For anyone remotely interested, Dr Ryan Maue's annual report provides compelling evidence that despite elevated global temperatures, accumulated cyclone energy was at low levels not seen since the 1970s. Heaven knows how low this could go in the next few years if the tropical Atlantic quietens as it should do with the changing AMO (the link here is that tropical cyclones are the engine house of poleward fluxing westerly winds - the less tropical cyclones, the greater the global easterly wind balance). In particular the embolded text. What effect are you expecting this to have on our weather in the coming years? Thank you in advance Karyo

Thanks for the update. I think this is in line with what GP posted a few days ago. I.e the warming is unlikely to propogate downwards thanks to the increasing effect of La Nina. Karyo

I can see a major cooling here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2010.gif Karyo

That's good news! There were fears for a (near) record breaking cold stratosphere this December thanks to the strong La nina so I am happy to see those warmings continue. Karyo

Thank you. Karyo

Is there a chance that further warmings may occur in the next few weeks? It seems to me that the very blocked pattern that we have cannot be fully explained by the minor warming that we've had so far. Karyo

Why there are no posts here? An update would be appreciated given next week's confusing model output... Karyo

To be honest, I don't rate Joe B's forecasts much. I think he was lucky last winter! However, I agree that not having the stratosphere on our side is a major problem. Yes, CFS did rather well. I wonder why it predicts a cold winter? Karyo

That's not what I wanted to hear but hardly surprising given the developing La Nina. High Pressure may be our best chance for cold surface conditions this winter, especially once December is out of the way. Karyo

Thank you for the link, very useful! I also wonder about any climate implication. It would help if there were any comparisons of this eruption to other recent ones. We also has the Sarichev eruption last month. Karyo

Oh dear, stratospheric cooling here we come!

I can see the plume is a lot more impressive than yesterday afternoon! Good to hear there were many earthquakes too! Karyo

Yes, the wind strength must make a difference! Any news on tremors/earthquakes today?

The clouds are bit more scattered now so I can see the plume. Noticeable but nowhere near as impressive as in the last couple of days! Karyo

I can't believe that I was glued to the Redoubt webcams last spring - that was a snooze fest compared to Eyjafjallajokull! lol Karyo

Oh my God! This is the highest I've seen it! http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-hvolsvelli/ I'd expect a lot of flight disruption over the weekend! Karyo

The plume is impressive at the moment! http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-hvolsvelli/ Karyo

I'd say compared to previous days, the plume is neither as high nor as dark! Karyo

Fingers crossed! It should be a payback for all the cloud we endured the last couple of days! :-)

Beautiful view today! I wonder whether we will be treated with some volcanic lightning tonight as long as the weather remains clear! Karyo

Indeed it is! Thanks for posting it! It must mean that this volcano will continue to attract our interest for some time yet! It could be an interesting summer! Karyo