karyo

I see some people posting about the possibility for snow but to be honest that sounds rather optimistic to me! Tomorrow night's event seems reserved for the midlands and further south, with our region mainly dry. On Friday we have that occluded front (see fax chart) but the models project less cold uppers at that stage so likely to be rain away from the Pennines. Over the weekend we look like having colder uppers. On Saturday, the flow looks too northerly to allow the showers to reach inland areas. Maybe better chance on Sunday when the wind turns more northwesterly but with pressure rising the showers will be fewer and lighter. Karyo

It appears that our luck is about to run out! By early next week, we are likely to see the cold zonality replaced with some benign mild weather and then posible a pressure rise from the south... Karyo

The weather here has been mostly cold, so far this month! The rest of this week is looking cold and in places wintry and colder for the weekend. I was expecting worse so I am not complaining. Karyo

The ECM offers a quick toppler but it thankfully flattens the high afterwards and doesn't allow it to migrate in central Europe. It stays suppressed in the Atlantic and as a result we keep cool to average zonality rather than the dreaded mild variety. Karyo

That's the 0z! I think the 12z will have the low a bit further north judging by the 120 hours. Karyo

I'd say the track of the Friday's low will be determined by how pronounced the Azores/Iberian high will be by then. I see the latest models intensifying that high over Iberia which can push the low to a more northerly track. This may be good for England and Wales avoiding the stormy conditions but it is also bad for any wintry prospects. Karyo

Heavy shower over there, hopefully heading for Manchester! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html Karyo

Rarely? I'd say it happened on a numerous occassions! Karyo

Personally, I'd prefer the showers to completely clear tonight so that we get some frost but I think we'll miss out on the frost once again... Karyo

Heavy sleet and rain. I wish we could go back to the proper hail we had earlier and last night. Backtrack, there will be a bit more of a northwesterly later on but lighter showers according to the precipitation forecast. Karyo

Very heavy shower to the west of me! Should hit Manchester in a few minutes... Karyo

Nice hail shower currently in Manchester! To be honest, when the temperatures are marginal like today, it's best to get hail than snow as snow won't stick! Karyo

The showers tomorrow afternoon will be wintry but likely to be weakening as the day progresses. I don't expect snow on low ground. I'd love to be surprised though. I think Cumbria will do well though due to elevation and heavier band of showers there. Karyo

According to the met office warning, many western parts of Britain should get heavy snow showers with the northwesterly wind.

Indeed, the Manchester area should see numerous showers Fri-Saturday. Karyo

It looks similar to the 0z ECM. Karyo

The met office 6-15 day outlook seems to expect cold zonality as it mentions temperatures on the cold side (apart from the southeast) and wintriness from Wales northwards. The further outlook goes average to mild but that's a long way from now. Based on this, I would expect the GFS to be wrong with the mild outlook. Karyo

Well, still no sign of southwesterlies and mild weather despite the stratosphere being very cold for quite some time now. I think another signal is override the cold stratosphere. Karyo

It is expected to weaken from now on so I doubt it. Karyo

Indeed, it is good to see. Sometimes the stratosphere warms in stages rather than suddenly and although this warming may not do much for the atmosphere, it could be the first in a series. Karyo

I am pleased to see today's models! With the stratosphere so cold we could have an endlessly mild December - high pressure in the Continent and low in the Atlantic feeding southwesterlies! Instead, we are having a favourable jet (nw-se axis) and several cold shots for the week ahead. Take it as a bonus and don't worry what happens mid month to Xmas. This is better than expected! Karyo

I expect the Welsh mountains to get loads of snow on Sunday and early next week! The uppers are cold enough and with a bit of elevation which Wales has in abandance... Karyo

Not necessarilly, as the stratospheric warming can lead to mild weather for the UK is the blocking that occurs is unfavourable. Anyway, I really like the UKMO 12z for a change! It's 144 hour chart is quite promising for a cold shot down the line. Karyo Karyo

No cold no care! lol

The warming that appeared at the 10hpa level yesterday is today also showing at the 30hpa to a lesser extend. However, it's very brief and the temperature drops down to the well below average levels. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Still nice to see no matter how brief. Karyo