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karyo

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karyo last won the day on July 30 2009

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    Manchester
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    holidays, late nights out, a bit of reading, sunbathing, countryside, enjoying the weather.

    Favourite weather types: Cold and Colder!
    Particularly deslike: mild and wet... and Darren Bett

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  1. I have to say that 'dog south' sounds quite worrying! But yes, the 6z often comes up with amplified solutions that are not followed by the 12z. The ICON also looks unfavourable for cold.
  2. The GEFS are still not keen on progressing the MJO into phase 8. It stays on phase 7 for a few days before dying a death. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml
  3. The first half of Dec was a bit wintrier than Ian's forecast was suggesting but there was a storm for the northern half of the country and now we are back to a more typical December pattern of mild and unsettled. I think he has done reasonably well so far. My interest now is to see whether the January cold spell materialises.
  4. Is it me, or is it rather difficult to find Ian's forecast thread? I accessed it once a couple of weeks ago after I was notified by others. Now I am looking for it again but can't find it. @iapennell Would you consider posting on the Model Discussion thread? I am sure I am not the only one who has trouble accessing your forecast and would benefit from reading your thoughts.
  5. Does the GFS/gefs still take the MJO to phases 7 and 8? The 6z GFS reminds me of the stormy winter of 2014/15.
  6. Looking at the output so far, I think we have to abandon the Christmas ship and hope for a better new Year.
  7. Good to hear reports that the band of rain north of me is turning to snow in places with modest elevation. This bodes well for the final band which is exiting southwest Scotland now.
  8. Yes, it is coming down quite fast so not much time for clear skies to provide surface cooling.
  9. Good time to go, you will miss the sleep inducing southwesterlies all next week. I am planning a volcano trip to La Palma in late January, I bet it will be the wintriest week since 2010 when I will be away.
  10. Yes, good to see the Met Office is seeing potential for January. We just need to grin and bear it next week.
  11. Reading this it sounds to me like they are expecting some cold zonality at first before the proper cold emerges. Either way it sounds good to me.
  12. The band of showery rain in the Irish sea is going to move through our region this afternoon. Our uppers are slightly higher now and there is a flow from the Irish sea so not good for snow apart from areas with good elevation. Then through the evening a clearer spell which should allow the temperatures to fall and very little breeze before the trough moves through around midnight. This holds more interesting as it is followed by colder uppers and it should coincide with a change in the wind direction on its northern side. So hopefully another spell of snow overnight for the Pennine areas even at modest elevation. The Euro 4 shows this clearly: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= You can see the trough on the rainfall radar, currently in northwest Scotland. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ The slow it moves south the better. It is a bit we don't have slightly lower uppers but we have to make the best of what we have. This looks like the last wintry chance for quite a while so if you can go to the Pennines tomorrow or Saturday to enjoy the snow, just do it!
  13. It is just the intensity of the shower that turned it to snow. I expect the lighter showers to be of rain or sleet
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