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karyo

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    Manchester
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    holidays, late nights out, a bit of reading, sunbathing, countryside, enjoying the weather.

    Favourite weather types: Cold and Colder!
    Particularly deslike: mild and wet... and Darren Bett

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  1. Generally true but you'd expect some exceptions. For example by this time last year we had hurricane Florence which started in the Atlantic but managed to track westwards and reached the US east coast. Also, in 2005 hurricane Katrina started in the Atlantic but made it to the Gulf in late August.
  2. The Bura wind is blowing today. It is a dry and cool wind from the east/northeast. It means that the sky is completely cloudless and blue.  This is not my kind of weather lol. Thankfully it won't last and by Sunday we will get a much more moist flow from the southwest and the thunderstorm potential will increase again.

    1. Had Worse

      Had Worse

      Cloudless her in Derby too. No wind and quite humid.

      Hope you get those storms you wanted.

      Just a faint hope for Manchester on Sunday.

    2. karyo

      karyo

      Fingers crossed we all see something. Then a frozen winter. I can dream...

    3. Had Worse

      Had Worse

      Frozen winter will be reality when the food prices go up and it a choice between eating and heating 

  3. Every tropical storm/ hurricane is roughly following the same track. Initially west/northwest and then north to northeast. This is proving a monotonous season and nothing major seems to enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico. The ECM is showing the same pattern continuing till the end if the month.
  4. Today is the day that I have a good chance for a thunderstorm! The northern part of the Adriatic is coming to life as I type this. 🙂

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. karyo

      karyo

      Yes the western side of the Adriatic is having lots of fun. I hope it makes it here as it has gone humid.

    3. karyo

      karyo

      Distant storms last night with frequent lightning but nothing overhead. The activity is slowly moving away southwards today and high pressure taking over again sadly. 

    4. Rush2112

      Rush2112

      Yes, the Adriatic storms seemed to decay as they moved out towards Croatia.  Monday and Tuesdays outlook for next week may give rise for a bit of excitement for you, as always we'll wait and see.

  5. Humberto is going to stay a fish. The NHC has once again adjusted the track east .
  6. We now have tropical depression 9. However development is looking slow for the foreseeable.
  7. Unbelievably the 12z still doesn't fall in line with the other models. It hardly makes anything of Humberto. Both the ICON and UKMO have a storm just east of Florida and then moving close to the Carolina coast.
  8. It is remarkable that the GFS has not woken up yet. I guess it will come in line with the other models in the 12z output. As for the Gulf of Mexico, it is almost as if someone has placed a hurricane shield to it and the storms can't enter. First Dorian and now this one, were forecast to enter the Gulf but then things changed. The ECM has another hurricane in its later output which looks like heading for the Gulf but the re-curves north.
  9. The 6z GFS continues to be on its own. The next NHC update will be interesting.
  10. Oh well, best to have low expectations to avoid another winter disappointment.
  11. The GFS is on its own. ICON, UKMO and ECM are all similar in keeping the storm on the Atlantic side. The NHC has not caught up with the models yet as they are still saying that it will enter the Gulf. They were behind the models with Dorian too.
  12. Going to Croatia for 2 weeks. I hope I get to see some thunder there.

    1. Show previous comments  7 more
    2. DAVID SNOW

      DAVID SNOW

      Flying again, tut tut....

    3. Rush2112

      Rush2112

      AccuWeather predicting thunder for Zadar on Wednesday. Fingers crossed.

    4. karyo

      karyo

      Yes, please!

  13. Nice to see us reaching 70% spotless days! Will we manage to maintain this figure or even improve a bit? It is possible that activity will start slowly increasing as we approach the end of the year.
  14. It also happened in September 2017. I was in the Pyrenees then and there was fresh snow to just over 2000 metres. The same system then gave snow to the Alps. It looks good but it doesn't take much for this early snow to melt though.
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