len
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Everything posted by len
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
len replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
RJBingham Why post charts with no indication of what they are please? No info. no dates, just coloured maps! From what source, dates, periods, anomalies, pressure, temps???? -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
len replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
He said "Don't worry" that's why it's the "Assures" High -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
len replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The second two images have no dates or categories! What are they pls?? -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
len replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I visualise the Gulfstream off the Eastern US Seaborad like a wandering, thrashing tail of warm water. The average temperature of the Ocean there blurs out these omnipresent wanderings. So,....... where the tail of warm water currently is- must always be anomalously warm relative to the surrounding water .... And the surrounding water must always be anomalously cool because its average includes times when it is the warm tail. The warm/cool streaks are always there when I look. It just shows you where the warm tail (& Labrador cool tail) is positioned relative to an average of positions. But that part of the Ocean never has a broad, flat average signal -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
len replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I believe this is the "spread", or variation, in the perturbations ..... of sea-level pressure. So in this instance the yellow area NE of UK is highly uncertain. ie. the solutions here are highly variable. It could be High or Low pressure perhaps. A straw to clutch. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
len replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
??? And this is? -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
len replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Many thanks -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
len replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just a pic off a phone! No info on run, time, date, source ???? -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
len replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I understand why you might like to regularly post cherry-picked perturbations, but inexperienced lurkers here may not qute understand that you can ALWAYS find whatever you want somewhere amongst the perturbations. Instead of cherry-picking only what you wish for, why not try random-selection, or offset your choice-morsels with the "worst perturbations"? -
I can't see these images. Way too small!
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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
len replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Knocker....is it possible to send a link for this 240hr percipitation chart. I searched "weathermodels.com" but it seems to be a paid subs? Is that right? -
Could someone tell me what "nbsp" stands for? And also "MMW", which is being used elsewhere relating to Strat. issues? Looks like a double whammy from this warming. Not helping Winter; Ruining Spring! Len
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I'm posting this here in response to the discussion regarding this paper http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-046...69-22-6-597.pdf .....in the Model Output Thread. I personally think that Winter SW warming events are "linked" with cold winters and that recent "bad" winters were ruined by the strong omnipresent PV. However this paper begins by talking about a mid-Jan 63 warming as contibuting to that phenomenal winter that I remember so well. However the Autumn of 62 had been mostly very cold and the extreme cold synoptics were in place by Xmas day. By mid-Jan we were 3 weeks into an uninterrupted regime of extreme cold. If the Warming takes 2 weeks to alter the synoptics, then we had already had 5 uniterupted weeks of record-breaking cold, by the time the "cause" arrived! Perhaps that winter was caused by other factors. Or perhaps the SSW is not the direct cause? Could it be a parrallel effect caused by a deeper, unknown, cause that promotes cold NH winters? Could it be a "marker" rather than a simple cause? Or a self reinforcing "product-&-further-cause" of cold. Notwithstanding my queries about it "causing" the 62/63 winter I still think it's the best explanation we have for "good" and "bad" winters. Please keep up the info. GP et al. Len
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
len replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
click on the maps here http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bournemouth-Pier/seatemp -
Thanks to both you & MWB. Much clearer. I get it about 80% now! Hope it helps others.
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Thanks for posting these regularly MWB. They look really interesting. Trouble is, (my Icelandic being shakey n'all) I haven't a clue what they mean MWB? I've been hoping someone else would ask.....but obviously they all read Icelandic. Any chance of a rundown please? Len
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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
len replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Please Knocker (or anyone) can you direct me to these charts? Thanks. Len -
Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->
len replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi Nouska That red (as I understand it, having visited the page) might mean a high "positive circulation anomaly" Which might mean "unusually vigorous altantic flow"??? Therefore depressingly confirming more of what we've got This is a layman's reading of it.....and I don't know what "element z500latlon" means? Can someone clarify please? Len -
Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->
len replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
. Seems to be the exact opposite of the idea of the North Pacific warm "blob" causing a High. We have a stubborn Mid-Atlantic cold SST anomaly. And the Mid-Atlantic High seems unable to leave it? -
'Warm blob' in Pacific Ocean linked to weird weather across the US
len replied to knocker's topic in Weather Around The World
And our Atlantic "cold pool" seems to lead to?.......A Mid-Atlantic-High!. The opposite of the "arm-blob-causes-High" idea? -
'Warm blob' in Pacific Ocean linked to weird weather across the US
len replied to knocker's topic in Weather Around The World
Posted 19 April 2015 - 20:56 nicknacknoo, on 19 Apr 2015 - 14:14, said: From John Holmes your answer is in the link K provided with an interview with a BBC weatherman-good stuff" -------------------------------- Sorry John, but I've listened to it 3 times and it doesn't explain at all. He says "the area of warm water warms the air above it" . He doesn't say why this encourages High Pressure.... rather than, (as I & nicknacknoo expect) LOW Pressure! I can see why the JetStream ridge that is there could cause the warm water; but, to my understanding, the warm water should be a negative feedback for High Pressure not a reinforcing/causative factor. Can somebody explain please? Personally I think we have a JS ridge for other, stonger factors and the warm blob is a side-effect? -
Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.
len replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi Gael Could you please tell me how to find the last image above. (With the different forecast plots on one image) Have been searching been searching NOAA MJO products in vain! Thanks -
New Met Website; Where are the longer-term text forecasts?
len replied to len's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thanks.....but this does not work for me (1)Clicking on the word "Weather" does nothing! (2)Clicking on the words "UK forecast" underneath (Did you mean this?) produces a "UK page" that is supervened (within a fraction of a second) by my location 5-day forecast Any more ideas? Anyone else find it on the new site??? Len -
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
len replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have the same sentiments about accepting the weather as John Holmes. But to throw some comfort to coldseekers NOAA is sticking to its guns 6-10 days & 8-14 days