linarite

rainfall totals for Cumbria looking pretty grim too

I hope those pressures modelled on the 06z GFS para for wed/thur next week turn out to be wrong (935mb central pressure??!!). As currently shown this would be a catastrophic event

The GFS PARA models a quite extraordinarily severe event for 27th/28th, combined with a spring tide. We must hope for the sake of the north-east and east coast that this downgrades.

Warm maybe - dry..I think not!

absolutely agree about the dangers of trying to link one particular event, or one particular season's weather, to anthropogenic climate change. But you must surely accept the basic physics of the matter - Fourier and Tyndall worked out the essentials in the 19C and nobody, as far I know, has ever undermined the basic premise that increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere increase the net amount of heat reaching the earth's surface. It is also indisputable that mankind's burning of fossil fuels has increased atmospheric CO2 to a level (400ppm) not seen on the planet for 3 million ye

It would be stupid if that is what the Met Office said, but what Dame Slingo actually said was "...all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change." (my italics). Rather different. So if you are going to criticize, get your facts straight first.

Indeed this little storm is unusual in terms of position and intensity.. after giving Aquitaine a good seeing-to it looks like it will track NE, possibly bringing yet more rain to SE England. It wil be interesting to see how it's modelled in this evening's output

If there was a 'required reading list' for new members, this would have to be on it!

They say "Since the issue of this Alert yesterday, the probability of heavy rain appears to have decreased, and if this trend continues, the Alert could yet be removed"