ukmoose

Not sure about any potent easterly from these charts but you have a much better idea than me Teits. I can say that late March 1975 (not sure where I'd get the archive charts from) produced quite a large snowfall in the midlands with sub zero temperatures at night, barely above freezing during the day for several days.

February has certainly turned out to be a cold month - but it hasn't been very 'interesting' in terms of cold for this part of the UK. Some, mostly light, frosts (not many actually) a little wet snow,some sleet and cold rain one night of freezing fog. Not what anyone could describe as an historic cold spell despite what the CET shows. The month has been dominated by 'possibilities' that have never quite come to fruition despite mostly very favourable synoptics. Just bad luck I guess. Some places certainly seem to have done really well for snow which has lasted throughout in a very cold spell (Scotland, north east England, Pennines, North Yorks moors, Fells etc mostly) and Scotland seems to have done particularly well with deep embedded and consistent cold. But for the south, whilst a cold month, February has largely disappointed for interesting 'cold spell' weather and this needs to be the caveat when looking at the CET overall I think.

It's going to stay like that I would suggest. I have just driven back down the A5 and the snow was batting it down all the way (roads really dodgy in places) about until about Towcester where it turned to sleet and the snow just disa[ppeared after that. Interestingly, the temperature was 0C then just after Towcester it started to rise and was 3.5 when I got back here. The cold air is on;y about 10 to 15 miles north of here but a fair bit more for you! I have to say that it was VERY heavy snow in places but it's definitely not heading this way now.

Yes indeed - that is what I suggested in the cold spell discussion thread yesterday.

What's a little scary is the Europe has been so cold for so long and although we have tapped in to the cold from time to time, the cold has not, in my view, been exceptional in the south given the potential there has been. Exceptional for recent winters definitely yes. Bit would exceptional at other times in the past have delivered a sub zero CET? Last chance saloon seems to have come and gone tonight as far as I can see and February will (more than likely) flatter to deceive once more. Great opportunity with all that cold to tap in to and blocking very nearly in place but just too much energy in the Atlantic despite the promise of -ve AO and other favourable synoptics. Very frustrating for cold lovers, so near yet so far... feels very much like defeat clutched from the jaws of victory once again and it seems like a very damp squib and bitterly disappointing end to a winter that has tried its best to deliver so much.

Game over I think. 5.8 for me please.

It's a benchmark. Some people don't like them - that's fair enough but they're still there.

I think I would pretty much agree with this except I would put a little more distance between 2 to 6 in terms of intensity of these cold spells ie, depth of snow, drifting and lower temperatures (for this area at least). We have had several falls of snow since 18th December here 15cms maybe the deepest at any one time which has been great. Some of those winters in the list above from Stu produced terrific drifts of several feet completely blocking even major roads. We haven't come anywhere near that though I realise some people may have done. Temperatures were also lower though I must admit I can't remember how long some of the spells lasted. Really good winter since middle of December though - clearly way out in front of anything since the mid to early nineties. It would be great to see a sub 3 January and despite rising temperatures I think it's still looking good for that. Any more for this winter? I wouldn't rule it out just yet but maybe not looking great for Feb if GP is anywhere near the mark and he usually is. Even great winters can fizzle out to nothing - think back to Feb 82 et al. I'd certainly take this winter even if there's no more to come.

I think we have to say that this slight thaw has taken nearly everyone by surprise. Yesterday here, during daylight hours, the temperature did not get above minus 1. Light snow was forecast for up to 24 hours, maybe longer and the temperature was set to remain below zero. I could tell when we went out at 7.30 yesterday evening that something was 'wrong' already - the temperature had risen just enough to get above freezing and whilst no precipitation, the air felt (and still feels) 'damp' not dry and cold. I can only assume that the warm front had marginally higher temperatures than expected and that, along with passage over the North Sea, made all the difference. Can't quite explain the snow in the south west though..? And are we now in for a slow thaw over the next few days as warmer air tries to push in? Whatever happens it has been a good spell of cold whether if not exceptional in these parts. Certainly more exceptional in other parts of the country though and the north may yet still remain cold.

Blimey. I disappear for a few days and find that my location has been moved! Better than being lumped in with that lot from Kent and Essex though <_< Good idea. Beautiful ice day here again today but no snow. Did have a tiny bit last night - no melt of the five inches or so from Tuesday night which is great. Let's see what happens over the next 48 hours...

Having just read through this morning's posts on this thread, and before everyone gets too excited, please remember that old Tom is interpreting the models just like the more knowledgeable posters on this forum who have had a bit of a hard time lately. Friday is a long, long way ahead in forecasting terms and as we have seen, snow is extremely difficult to predict even at short notice. It looks good - but it has looked good for quite a number of days now and things change or don't quite verify in the way that is interpreted at the time. Forecasters can only do their best with the information they have to hand. I would like to add my thanks and appreciation to all of those posters (we all know who you are!) who put a huge amount of time and effort in to posting on this forum, interpreting the charts and adding your own detailed knowledge. It's a fantastic read whatever comes to fruition and without you there would be no forum. Your hard work does not go unnoticed or unappreciated I can assure you. Please keep the posts coming - any 'criticisms' are completely uncalled for but and borne more out of disappointment more than anything and should not detract in any way shape or form from the brilliant posts that you guys put on for others to read and learn from. Thanks guys.

Morning all. Another beautiful morning here after a third consecutive very slight frost. Nice to see the sunshine after the cloud and drizzle yesterday evening. Like a previous poster, we may just get through this severe event. Parts of Kent looking a fairly good bet for a bit of snow this week. Mostly dry and sunny for a lot of us I think. Certainly nowhere near as cold (or as snowy) as the pre- Christmas cols spell here.

It always looks good from Tuesday onwards. A bit like free beer tomorrow!

Cloudy here now and the warmest it's been all day with a little drizzle. Not a great cold spell so far ...

Thanks KW - an interesting addition to the usual cet comp and some very interesting figures you have posted there.

Thanks again Jackone for a fantastic job with the results.

Nah - I'll join. Not a flake here. (Did well before Christmas so couldn't join then!)

It's good to hear that some people have had a bit of the white stuff - enjoy! Two lovely days here since the rain cleared up. Two slight frosts for the last two nights and lovely blue sky and sunshine. No snow at all (in fact slightly warmer here today than yesterday by a degree or so up to 4C). Certainly nice but not quite the biting cold I was expecting by now and quite hard to imagine how wintry some places must be. Can't complain though and we did quite well out of the snow before Christmas.

Updated list as follows: 15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 161 1.3-C: cooling climate Late 10 P Points 111 0.5-C: stewfox 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 168 0.9C: Kentish Man Late 10 P Points 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 109 1.3C: fozi999 107 1.4C: Norrance 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 119 1.6C: Mr Maunder 136 1.6C: Stu London 142 1.6C: Tommyd1258 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 112 1.8C: Polar Side 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 138 1.9C: snowmaiden 154 1.9C: StormMad26 Late 10 P Points 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 117 2.1C: Great Plum 129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 101 2.2C: Cal 137 2.2C: sundog 65 2.3C: damianslaw 135 2.3C: phil n.warks 150 2.3C: themusicland 38 2.4C: sufc 103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006 169 2.4C: osmposm Late 20 P Points 92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection 106 2.5C: artic fox 114 2.5C: Don 126 2.5C: Snowman0697 152 2.5C: Glacier Point 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 153 2.6C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 80 2.7C: adamjones416 102 2.7C: Tonyh 125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 124 2.8C: reef 141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 95 2.9C: mk13 128 2.9C: chionomaniac 143 2.9C: JACKONE 90 3.0C: davehsug 99 3.0C: ned 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 88 3.2C: TomSE20 118 3.2C: ukmoose 7 3.3C: Koppite 113 3.3C: Jack Wales 121 3.3C: DR Hosking 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 144 3.4C: Stargazer 14 3.5C: BARRY 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 115 3.6C: lostobsessed 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 167 3.7C: acbrixton Late 10 P Points 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 123 4.0C: rikki 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 151 4.5C: igloo 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans

10.5 please

15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 142 1.6-C: Tommyd1258 111 0.5-C: stewfox 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 109 1.3C: fozi999 107 1.4C: Norrance 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 119 1.6C: Mr Maunder 136 1.6C: Stu London 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 112 1.8C: Polar Side 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 138 1.9C: snowmaiden 154 1.9C: StormMad26 Late 10 P Points 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 117 2.1C: Great Plum 129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 101 2.2C: Cal 137 2.2C: sundog 65 2.3C: damianslaw 135 2.3C: phil n.warks 150 2.3C: themusicland 38 2.4C: sufc 103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006 92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection 106 2.5C: artic fox 114 2.5C: Don 126 2.5C: Snowman0697 152 2.5C: Glacier Point 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 153 2.6C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 80 2.7C: adamjones416 102 2.7C: Tonyh 125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 124 2.8C: reef 141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 95 2.9C: mk13 128 2.9C: chionomaniac 143 2.9C: JACKONE 90 3.0C: davehsug 99 3.0C: ned 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 88 3.2C: TomSE20 118 3.2C: ukmoose 7 3.3C: Koppite 113 3.3C: Jack Wales 121 3.3C: DR Hosking 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 144 3.4C: Stargazer 14 3.5C: BARRY 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 115 3.6C: lostobsessed 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 149 3.7C: Kentish Man 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 123 4.0C: rikki 25 4.1C: osmposm 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 151 4.5C: igloo 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans OK I think that's it but let me know if I have missed anything - especially late revisions.

Sorry - I will put you in!

Hello. Tongue in cheek perhaps; but meant. The climate has warmed for the last 100 years, especially so in the last 10 to 20. Whether this will reverse anytime soon, who knows. I am merely pointing out the obvious - that it is warmer now than it was and (as I have said many times) this pattern has been repeated throughout history. Climate fluctuates. Always has, always will I should think. Man made factors play a part in this (probably) but we don't know how much. You are right. I did question whether the 3 barrier could be breached anytime soon. I think 20 odd years without it being breached was a fairly good yardstick don't you? I will be delighted if it is broken mind you - and would be very happy to be proved wrong. I don't want to see a continuing warming trend with all the horrors it would bring for millions in the world and hope that it stops soon. I just think the trend, for now, is less rapidly upwards. Have a snowy, Happy New Year and a sub 3 January.

OK 15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 109 1.3C: fozi999 107 1.4C: Norrance 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 119 1.6C: Mr Maunder 136 1.6C: Stu London 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 112 1.8C: Polar Side 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 138 1.9C: snowmaiden 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 117 2.1C: Great Plum 129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 101 2.2C: Cal 137 2.2C: sundog 65 2.3C: damianslaw 135 2.3C: phil n.warks 38 2.4C: sufc 103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006 92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection 106 2.5C: artic fox 114 2.5C: Don 126 2.5C: Snowman0697 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 80 2.7C: adamjones416 102 2.7C: Tonyh 125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 124 2.8C: reef 141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 95 2.9C: mk13 128 2.9C: chionomaniac 143 2.9C: JACKONE 78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 90 3.0C: davehsug 99 3.0C: ned 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 88 3.2C: TomSE20 118 3.2C: ukmoose 7 3.3C: Koppite 113 3.3C: Jack Wales 121 3.3C: DR Hosking 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 144 3.4C: Stargazer 14 3.5C: BARRY 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 115 3.6C: lostobsessed 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 123 4.0C: rikki 25 4.1C: osmposm 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans Still time for the late punters. Much as I am tempted by the thought of breaking the 3 barrier I am going to stick just above 3 minded by the blow torch effect that has ruined all sub 3 prospects in recent years. Just hope I'm wrong. Last post from me so for all those with latish entries (SF?) I will update tomorrow. (Any double entries or errors please let me know). A Happy and Peaceful New Year to one and all and let's hope we get what we all wish for, weather-wise and beyond.

Sorry, is that 1.6 or minus 1.6 C ?