[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

 

ECMWF ensembles much better, less mild options to get rid of and op was near top between 14-16th

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

messy ECM but still lot of cooler options later in week

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

ECM for Southeast Ireland certainly the mildest outcome.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

 06z ensembles for Southeast Ireland and concrete agreement on milder Sunday but cooler after that and then a lot of options, cooler options outnumber milder but really very uncertain beyond 22nd

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Looks a comparatively warm run for Ireland. Let's see what Glasgow, B'ham, Cardiff and London look like later

Glasgow

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

a lot of options on ECM after Monday.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

ECM ensembles showing good support for back to cold air after a mild blip but lots of options there

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

ECM ensembles showing huge support now for milder air from Sunday but could be just a blip for a few days?

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Track of storm firmly South now, chances of frontal snow look to have faded away but will help keep the cold locked in.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

10% chance now so I think we can be safe it won’t be blowing cold away. Slide baby slide

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Maybe too far south for any big snow enough but certainly sliding.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Good agreement now on low to slide South

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Could you post the London ones please ? Or the midlands ? Thank you  

London

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

latest ECM ensembles show good support for cold to last up to 18th. The spike in precip for Southeast Ireland shows risk of low bringing some precip but spread shows how uncertain it is.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

ECM ensembles show much more support for cold to last with the OP well supported up to the 16th.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Latest guidance on potential tropical storm in Atlantic, path fairly tight until end.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

A big drop back in 850 temps on this morning ECM ensembles with OP having a lot of support!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Latest ECM ensembles show a big increase in the number of milder members beyond the 12th but a whole lot of options there so really impossible to forecast beyond Monday at present.

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

The ECM ensembles show good support for 850 temps, unusually so right out to end almost and op has colder support at end.

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Ensembles show 6th to 8th is very uncertain and it really is finely balanced. Be a few more days before this settles.

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

ICON 12z shows how we fail to tap in any real cold in the short term.

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

h

ECM ensembles for Southeast Ireland show big spread from the 5th but more support for milder 850 temps.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

The ECM 6z only goes to +90 but looks good even compared to 00z:

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

FWIW the Irish Met Office, Met Eireann have started doing monthly forecasts:
 

Monthly Forecast - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

WWW.MET.IE

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Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

Week 1 (Friday 08 January to Thursday 14 January)

High pressure is expected to influence Ireland’s weather during this week. A north or northeast air-flow looks set to dominate early in the period before the air-flow becomes variable as high pressure builds in over the country. Mean air temperatures are expected to be below average with a risk of frost, ice and some wintry precipitation. However, it looks set to turn a little less cold later in the period. Soil temperatures are expected to run below the seasonal-norm. As high pressure will be the dominant feature of the weather, is expected to be drier than normal for early to mid-January with only small amounts of rainfall forecast.

Week 2 (Friday 15 January to Thursday 21 January)

Forecast confidence declines in week 2 but there is an indication that weather conditions will turn more unsettled. High pressure is forecast to decline with some frontal systems moving through. Mean air temperatures are expected to be near-average for January with a reduced risk of frost and ice as compared to previous weeks. Rainfall totals are expected to be higher than in previous weeks with rainfall amounts forecast to be around average for mid-Winter, possibly higher than average in parts of the south.

Week 3 (Friday 22 January to Thursday 28 January)

By late January, there is lower confidence in the forecast but there is a signal for weather conditions to remain fairly unsettled with low pressure situated close to Ireland. Mean air temperatures are expected to be above average with a reduced risk of frost and ice as compared to the climatological average. As low pressure will quite dominant with frontal troughs nearby, it looks set to be wetter than average across most of the country. Forecast confidence falls lower by the end of the period but it looks set to stay rather unsettled.

Week 4 (Friday 29 January to Thursday 04 February)

By forecast week 4 confidence is much lower. However, there is a trend towards unsettled weather with low pressure expected to be positioned nearby Ireland. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be slightly above average for the time of year across much of the country whilst rainfall totals are projected to be above average.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.]

A little off topic but not sure where to ask, given High Pressure setting up for next week and some nice settled weather the only real issue is fog which forecasting is always fun, is there any models that have a fog forecast?