Duane S.

17/01 (give or take) has been of interest in terms of a window of opportunity for a while now. This hasn’t changed.

You are not understanding it though. If it persisted, which it almost certainly will for the next 10-14 days, it wouldn’t be conducive to breaking any warmth records. Hence misleading.

Extremely misleading to suggest temperature records will be broken in January.Odds on a milder than average January, that’s all.

It has been a very poor start to the ski season, especially for the NW Alps (amongst other areas). I should know as I was due to go and cancelled last minute but… I’m really not sure where the doom and gloom for the entirety of January for the Alps is coming from? For a long time now next week has been showing as having a good covering, thereafter more snow likely due. BTW, I’m here now having hastily rearranged to the southern French Alps and there is very decent skiing conditions, with a 2 metre snow base at just 2,000m and we are skiing well below 1,800 with no issues, so it’s not a complete disaster everywhere. The GFS has been more than hinting at a change come mid month. Liking the 12z and the 06z was t too shabby either. Everything to play for, at this still early stage of the winter season.

It does seem that, whilst there is little appetite for a full on SSW any time soon, the forecast warmings up top could start playing havoc with the SPV, stretching it here and pushing it there. A slow down up top coming into view. Yes, nothing significant, but maybe it won’t need to be? And, last but not least, you’d have to assume this won’t be without huge consequence with regards to the NH atmosphere, off the scale… My take away is a mobile first half of January but literally anything goes as we get past mid month. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4782023

It does seem that, whilst there is little appetite for a full on SSW any time soon, the forecast warmings up top could start playing havoc with the SPV, stretching it here and pushing it there. A slow down up top coming into view. Yes, nothing significant, but maybe it won’t need to be? And, last but not least, you’d have to assume this won’t be without huge consequence with regards to the NH atmosphere, off the scale… My take away is a mobile first half of January but literally anything goes as we get past mid month.

I couldn’t agree more. From a fairly meh chart on the face it, in fact a bit of underestimated upstream amplification could release that lot towards us Jan’87 style! Not likely of course but interesting nonetheless.

Really warm here yesterday, felt like Spring. Enjoy your visit (even if it has to be with a, no doubt very smug right now, Gooner ), I’m on my way to the toasty Alps today

Thought the 18z could’ve given us something a bit better than a toppler to finish off 2022! Hey ho, keep an eye on that warming for January, fancy we could get something very interesting in a few weeks. Happy new Year from Paris (1 hour in to 2023 already) and here’s to a fab new year full of good health, snow, ice days and thunderstorms. And, if you’ll excuse me once a year, up the mighty Spurs!!

Agree with this. People who try and look clever by writing off the rest of January are just looking for kudos and massive pats on the back (often quoting their own posts weeks later) on the back of often very simplistic arguments. Fairly safe in the knowledge they will indeed most likely be proved ’correct’ by nothing more scientific than the default UK January weather being what is usually is. Kudos should be reserved for those who seek and spot opportunities that eventually lead to something substantial. There will always be many more letdowns than victories in pursuit of this, but that’s not the point and all part of the ‘fun’! Now, there is clearly little chance of any substantial lowland southern snow in the next 10 days, probably a fair bit longer in all reality but that only takes us into the second week of January. And for those further North, write off snow from this potential PM flow at your peril, it has legs. The tropospheric vortex is not particularly well organised and menacing as we often see at this time of year. The MJO looks like it might offer some help from the Pacific for later on. The SPV looks like it isn’t going to get things easy, as warmings (not significant, yet) disrupt above. AAM seems to be holding up ok, as in not dropping through the floor after it’s exceptionally sustained period recently. Many pluses, none of them standout but combined could certainly produce fun and games later on in the month. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98132-model-output-discussion-christmas-week-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4780258

Agree with this. People who try and look clever by writing off the rest of January are just looking for kudos and massive pats on the back (often quoting their own posts weeks later) on the back of often very simplistic arguments. Fairly safe in the knowledge they will indeed most likely be proved ’correct’ by nothing more scientific than the default UK January weather being what is usually is. Kudos should be reserved for those who seek and spot opportunities that eventually lead to something substantial. There will always be many more letdowns than victories in pursuit of this, but that’s not the point and all part of the ‘fun’! Now, there is clearly little chance of any substantial lowland southern snow in the next 10 days, probably a fair bit longer in all reality but that only takes us into the second week of January. And for those further North, write off snow from this potential PM flow at your peril, it has legs. The tropospheric vortex is not particularly well organised and menacing as we often see at this time of year. The MJO looks like it might offer some help from the Pacific for later on. The SPV looks like it isn’t going to get things easy, as warmings (not significant, yet) disrupt above. AAM seems to be holding up ok, as in not dropping through the floor after it’s exceptionally sustained period recently. Many pluses, none of them standout but combined could certainly produce fun and games later on in the month.

Can’t see anything close to an SSW in 10 days, that seems misleading even with the addition of ‘or so’ added as a handy get out clause.

Massively improved (low bar) charts over the past 24 hours, however some want to see it, as finally some consistency (doesn’t mean it’s going to happen of course) with energy diving SE and Bartlett-esque EU heights disappearing as quick as they appeared. Azores high in this context is far more palatable than certain alternatives. Decent warming showing up through the upper layers as well…

Getting increasingly toasty up at the top, one to watch to see how much it ingresses further down… Certainly good signs this morning… I saw the tweet earlier ref a (predicted) +6 sigma strat warming event. I really ought to know but what does Sigma actually mean in that context? I can’t remember the exact relationship / difference between Sigma and Standard Deviation, but obviously he can’t mean a +6 SD!!

Looks like timings have not been our friend again. Baring something left field (certainly not impossible), very tricky to see a way to any sort of decent UK wide cold spell before the end of the year. I can't see past a period of pumped up Euro high / expanded Hadley cell. Hopefully it will be a fleeting visit but again, where is the forcing coming from for the next 10 days? The MJO is currently in the SE Asia area, I find this is always a poorly reported area so hopefully we will see improvements in amplitude forecasts as it heads hopefully towards the Pacific, but there is a lag to factor in here as well of course. So, a nice little northern wedge is probably our best hope at the mo. Come on GFS, give us hope! (I haven't looked since the 12z +12 came out)

Surely chart of the day? For a week 6 that is crazy. I wonder what it sees? As for the U.S Nor’Easter not being notable, really? it looks incredible and hasn’t really wavered since it showed up. It will gone on to affect our weather downstream, let’s just hope it does us a favour and pump up the mid Atlantic heights enough to set us down the preferred pathway.

The big question is, is the GFS/GEFS sensing the way forward and we see further upgrades, or is it merely eeking the very best out of the situation Compulsive viewing of the next day or two I think.

Happy Christmas from a shamelessly cherry picked member #13. Obviously, I’m choosing to ignore the UKMO though

Eyes down for the GEFS. The GFS op has a real go of it, with a much better jet profile heading into Europe.

Just your bog standard December 5-wave chart from the GFS

I’m all for genuine subjectivity, pragmatism and even glass half empty posts, but one poster in particular does seem to want something else on this forum, often with just a hint of patronisation thrown in for good measure (guarantees extra antagonistic value). They keep in subtle but know what buttons to press. Trying to make a name for themselves, we’ve had a few… And it really is easiest job in the world to just constantly bet against cold in the uk, you will be right more often than not. ZERO kudos to awarded for that thougH. btw,If you’re not sure (deep down) that I’m referring to you, then it’s not you The models this morning have taken quite a lurch back in the right direction. The GFS Op is stunning and normally I’d say little to no chance, whilst yes still unlikely, a quick glance at the NH profile says something in that mould cannot be ruled out. Forks in the road are yet to be reached! It seems to me the initial key point is the split out of energy from the Atlantic low early on. Let’s just enjoy this fascinating output right now, it may not happen again in December for another 12 years plus.

A milder breakdown/blip, call it what you will, continues to look likely next weekend. Nearer to the here and now (with snow falling in a lot of areas this morning), this ens disagreement down here has been constant for days and shows the marginality of the mid week system. Still all to play for for at least a covering. I’ve seen a few strange comments about this being a dry cold spell. Well whilst there will always be winners and losers in UK cold spells, we need to remember we are in a trough dominated set up, not a ridge. Unstabilty will always be abound within.

Thunder rain here

Wow though!! A massive flash and crash of thunder!

Heavy here for the past 15 minutes. …Sleety rain that is of course Will be turning readily to snow inland and with elevation I’m sure.