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s4lancia

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Everything posted by s4lancia

  1. I’ve resisted the concept in the past but there is little doubting the correlation between strong signals / seasonal models pointing towards mild equates ultimately to mild. Whilst signals pointing largely to cold have less chance of being right, but we seem to need it in order to have virtually any hope. The latter can easily be explained by the climatic norm of our neck of the woods being more mild and zonal. I suppose sooner rather than later the ever changing climate will throw in an unforeseen curveball at some point on the former. One noticeable trait of the recent decade of winters has been the constant tease in late Autumn which has promised so much but very rarely delivered. Maybe this year? The QBO, whatever it ends up doing, is probably not going to have the direct effect the IOD going negative has though. Great news indeed.
  2. Where on earth do we go from here? The westerlies at the bottom have turned Easterly. We virtually have Easterlies right through from top to bottom. This normally only occurs for a short period of time as the westerlies at the bottom finally dissipate and before a new westerly burst starts downwelling through 10hpa. Even then, many cycles don’t even produce this outcome, as in, the westerlies nearer the bottom don’t reverse in time before a new clear westerly burst appears at the top. So it’s not the fact we have (in all likelihood) a very short period of time of a near total Easterly that is unusual, it’s the circumstances that have led to it that is unprecedented in recorded times. This does appear to be another disruption event, albeit quite different to the last one a few years back. This picture below shows very graphically how weak the Easterlies have been and that, on the face of it, that we are heading quickly away from our weak E-QBO and back towards a new W-QBO. That said, there probably is still time for the Easterly regime to somewhat double back, intensify and re-establish? And I wonder if we are indeed seeing just that. Easterly winds higher up have increased somewhat and that strong anomalous well-defined Easterly wind at 40hpa looks to be backing off I’d say, so maybe there’s some hope yet. Interesting to see what happens next, I wouldn’t want to have to call it, that’s for sure.
  3. Clearly GFS/GEFS responding to its forecast (juries very much still out on that) of enhanced Pacific activity but tentative signs of interest late month into March in recent runs. Amplification and a super strong vortex in its seasonal weakening state can be spectacular. I’m off to the Indian Ocean for a couple of weeks tomorrow, the primary driver of our ghastly winter and Australia’s awful fires. Fingers crossed I come back to total thermal shock ?
  4. I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast... Incredible, even if probably very unlikely. It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?
  5. Hmmm, very decent update this morning. Come on GEFS, don’t let us down this time...
  6. I must admit I haven't bothered looking for a few days but this is quite the change. Obviously not withstanding the massive failing of GEFS back in December in this respect, hopefully it is more on the ball this time around? We shall see. If so back end of Feb / early March may be our best bet for something a bit more wintery
  7. Our monster high looks to have broken the England Wales January record, set in 1882. Guess how the remainder of that winter end up? The high retrogressed and we had two months of lying snow Actually, no, it was awful. Southerlies prevailed and that was it for that particular winter. Even back then, when apparently it was wall to wall snow, year in year out... ? Anyway, hopefully the 2nd half of this winter won’t end up quite as bad as that one 138 years ago!
  8. 18z suite. Op, Control and 14 out of 20 GEFS members hit -8 850s or lower on the south coast. Consistency required but as I mentioned earlier this looks very feasible.
  9. GEFS look decent. For a laugh, how about this one... ?
  10. Far too early yet of course but what is interesting here is that some Ops and Controls are starting to get excited, not just a few random GEFS members. Definitely time to sit up and take notice folks, as this is actually a very feasible outcome (note... ‘feasible’ though, not necessarily ‘likely’ ?) Should something close to this transpire, there would be some very unstable airmass around.
  11. Now, after December GEFS debacle, this obviously to be taken as a pinch of salt. But let's see if this time we are on the downward slope to a reasonably sustained period of weak westerlies. Probably too early to be even thinking about reversals though.
  12. Little sign of MJO influences on this specific run but this is often the case. Pacific forcing doesn’t always engage with the atmospheric flow and often becomes mere noise as it’s overridden by stronger influences. Juries still out on this one, it could easily yet still turn in our favour as we head through the final third of the month into Feb. Early days yet, with up to a two week lag and it is at a very decent amplitude so we should remain optimistic at least.
  13. I think we need to look no further than a MLB (currently in the process of getting nicely firmed up) and take things from there. Yes it is difficult to look beyond the northern arm of the jet dominating at the moment but give it a couple of weeks or so it could relent, if so I'd say we are then in a fairly prime position for some very favourable retrogression Nearer to present day, the trend has been our friend recently to inject a bit of mid-term seasonality in regards to the upper air temps. These from last night to today's 12z (for my balmy location)
  14. GEFS not relenting. This is a pattern changer, for good or bad ( let’s face it, it’s unlikely to be worse!) Greenland ridge very plausible, possibly even very likely. Interesting last third firming up...
  15. Beat me to it. Yep, ECM has moved to GFS / GEFS from where it was yesterday. Assuming convection survives through the Asia Maritimes (never a given), things could get very interesting down the line.
  16. Is this updated daily? Have you got a link for this please...
  17. Much better GEFS set this morning. Nothing special of course, just pretty good in the context of recent output. I’m wondering if maybe the Control has it right (synopticly speaking) and height rises to the NE are a bit of a red herring in terms of a catalyst for a future potential cold spell. Should we be looking at a final third of January MJO phase 6 mid Atlantic ridge response I wonder? Anyway, it would just be nice to see this increased amplification gain traction over f the coming days.
  18. You don’t see charts of this +U wind intensity very often. Thankfully. Lets just hope it’s a case of “The stronger they are...”
  19. No denying the output is pretty rank. No sugar coating it. There’s little to zero hope of anything before mid month. But as always, hope springs eternal... The MJO, if not immediately heading towards the correct phase for us, is at least likely to start throwing a few spanners into the vortex and subsequent amplification as we head through the final third of January. That signal for a pressure build to our NE is only going to become stronger over the coming days I suspect. As for Steve M signing off for winter. Yeah right, I give it till the weekend at the latest...
  20. Whilst I understand WHY some are effectively writing off January, such a stance is of course utter nonsense. Sure there probably is an increased chance of it being a poor January, when compared to the average January the 2nd starting point, but as per usual it’s as much driven by people’s own negativity and frustration as it is the actual weather chart output. Certain people have gone further still, writing off hope of any positive effects from the stratosphere and the entire winter itself! Good grief, this forum at times... Anyway, ECM dangles the carrot tonight. As has already been mentioned, not totally on its own either with a few GEFS hinting at such a scenario. A few GEFS members and the ECM Op Day10 hardly an inspiring line up of advocates but in this situation we are not going to get a sudden cold spell emerge out of nowhere for 5 days time, but this looks a feasible way out of this dross to me as we get to mid month. Mid Lat High is a reasonable response, if we could squeeze something a few degrees higher, mores the better.
  21. Yep, main players all on the same page now fnally. Generally, progress to Pacific phases via earlier IO / Asia phases etc tends to be preferable than emerging out of the COD straight into the Pacific.
  22. A definite edging in the right direction by the models this morning. The cold (but very brief) spell on the 4th of January is still very much a possibility. Amplitude waves around the NH are showing up nicely, the likelihood currently is that they will come to little as they wax and unfortunately wane but therein lies possibilities at least. Especially if we can maintain Pacific forcing, this may be the catalyst we need going through January. And has already been mentioned, GEFS ens#1 is quite something. Whilst I’m not saying I see any realistic chance of anything close to that verifying at that timescale, in light of all that horrible black and purples over the pole currently, it’s certainly extremely nice to look at... (it is in fact, it’s one of the best runs I’ve ever seen, quite strange it should appear under these conditions ?) We’ve seen that ridge in the first frame below a few times this winter as well, all to no avail (so far)
  23. Tonight’s strawclutcher, January 4th. A few ens have been hinting at something for a few days now, and the GFS 12z was no exception. Here’s one of a few bringing in a cold Northerly around then... Unfortunately the caveat... Clearly even if ( big IF) this did come to fruition, it is very difficult to see how it would be anything else other than a textbook toppler. Beggars can’t be choosers though, I think we’d all take that right now if offered!
  24. OK, as we stare down the barrel, time to inject a bit of optimism. Blind or otherwise... Tonight’s straw clutcher is the latest JMA MJO forecast.
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