Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

4,010 Exceptional

About s4lancia

Profile Information

  • Location
    Weymouth, Dorset

Recent Profile Visitors

5,282 profile views
  1. Thanks all! :-) Some great information there and pretty much ties in with my thoughts. On the risky side. Maybe, assuming we bite the bullet and go, somewhere like Argentière? Never been but looks suitably aloft. Chamonix in some form I think, maybe Le Brevent area. I think I remember going there 20 odd years ago in Mid April and there was loads of the white stuff.
  2. What do you think? Avoriaz, Easter BH weekend? Ive never been this late or in the holidays. My take would be enough runs still open at 1,800m, the forecast doesn't look detrimental but maybe too many people for the remaining runs?
  3. Yep MC, the Genoa low is all too often crucial when it comes to a good Easterly and usually one of the early building blocks to HLB. As has been proven again, energy sliding south under the block just doesn't cut the mustard if it doesn't make it far enough east, certainly loitering around Portugal usually does us few favours.
  4. I'm surprised more is not being made of the GFS 06z. I think it looks very interesting and is on to something, indeed compared to a lot of the output of recent days! There really has been a feel of the models not being able to process the information being fed in and, with the very weak Atlantic, coming up with strange and improbable looking flabby charts. As though waiting in situ to be told where to go next! Key is the evolution once the AH has completed its pesky ridging and energy should once again drain out from our NW in an SE direction. The ECM toyed with it and the GFS 06z has moved it along, I think this has legs. I don't think we are looking at any sort of full on retrogression just yet but What I can see occurring is the creation of a weak but influential small HP system centred somewhere around the west coast of Norway. May come to nothing but one to watch IMO as the cold come be back in an instance should something like that occur.
  5. Hmmm. Not a blow your socks off ECM run but from where we were (and TBH what I was expecting) I'll take it. Certainly shows promise, something to build on. Start of a trend? Hopefully. I certainly owe it an apology, it was the first the sniff out the sinking high last weekend and whilst I 100% agreed with the premise of a ridging Azores High, I was convinced that a total collapse of the Scandinavian High SEwards was plain wrong. It hasn't happened yet of course but now has pretty unequivocal support that it will. Plenty to play for still, I was always expecting this mild(etc) transition period but just not in the way it appears to be panning out.
  6. Just to attempt to bring a sense of reality back to this thread to all those who appear unable to control their emotions because we aren't going to get a Beast From The East style Easterly. Despite what an alien may think if they had just arrived from outer space and started reading the last few pages of this forum, I am sorry to burst some bubbles but a 'proper' snowy Easterly was NEVER actually forecast by anybody of any standing here simply because, other than a few wayward Op runs, it never showed up on the charts. It was ALWAYS an outside chance and so it proved to be correct. It would appear that some exuberance and excitement exhibited by those of us who actually enjoy the chase when there is a genuine opportunity of a snowy spell has been mistaken for some sort of set in stone 100% forecast. Nope we were just getting excited by the possibility of. some people evidently need to be able to distinguish between the two. Our alien will now read this post and will no doubt think there is no cold spell at all arriving! So imagine his confusion when the next thing he does is go on to view the charts. Why? because we do have an Easterly on the way and a half decent one at that as well. He would then be no doubt further perplexed as he scrawled through the charts trying to find this searing plume sourced from the scorched deserts of Africa that many speak of... Of course we are all a bit disappointed that the easterly does not look like being as good as it could have do but conversely it could have not verified at all (most don't make it over all the hurdles and through all the hoops required to get to a winter Easterly). Let's see what occurs instead of writing it off before it is even here FGS. So much left to happen yet, best model watching for a long time.
  7. I would agree completely but for the comment at the end ''Too soon yet for a Greenland block IMO'
  8. To be fair, an 8-14 day anomaly chart could NEVER depict such a scenario.It is what it is, a forecast of the pressure differences to the norm. Assuming it ends up being reasonably accurate, and they often are, the actual location, angle, size, strength of the heights will determine what actually occurs. You could easily draw two 500mb NH profiles on the basis of that chart being accurate, one that would give us cold nirvana and an alternate one that we see us totally missing out in the UK. The anomaly chart would still verify.
  9. Everything heading nicely in the right direction I am very happy with how things are panning out indeed A good looking (in fact a lot better than the charts were showing a few days ago) initial cold spell on the way. An Inevitable, unavoidable and predicted mild(er) spell to follow Then a growing retrogression signal filtering through very nicely indeed thank you very much, which will likely mean our mild(er) spell could well only be an insignificant mild(er) snap. All is still good
  10. We are to hope that the 18z has started the trend of model runs that are emerging from the fog and confused chaos of recent days as hopefully he retrogression signal is being picked up here. Yes I'm talking to you ECM. Of course, that doesn't mean any sort of clear cut route is going to be carved out (far far from it) but this should be the start of more cobra runs appearing on our tablets and mobiles in the coming days and beyond. Of course that will also mean many near miss runs and just plain poor runs in amongst, so a steady nerve will be required as always.This will not a place for the faint hearted! The 18z for instance whilst (assuming it is based on having picked up a retrogression signal from tropical forcing) is a great run, goes on build some feasibly solid looking GL based HLB only for it to be all but gone in a few days! Very strange but hey, Lo res will do what Lo res will, so nothing to worry about in that respect. A transient mild(er), but unlikely mild in any way, period highly likely IMO after the initial Easterly. As to get from A to C we have to go through B, it's virtually unavoidable! With my loaded double dice analogy, we should just need to roll a 5 and above to land (what is always subjectively speaking) a decent cold and snowy spell. Way better odds than the average potential spell, mainly because of the likely larger window(s) of opportunity that I think we are going to be offered here.
  11. For goodness sake. The ECM finally comes its senses ref. its D4/5 to D5/6 evolution and then completely loses the plot by quickly and aggressively sinking the high to our SE. Other than that, a top notch 00z suite!
  12. Completely different jet profile at the tipping point is keeping things decent here. The 18z retains more energy in the northern arm (normally a bad thing, looking like possibly not in this instance) than its 12z counterpart which split off way earlier than the 18z does.
  13. I think the AH ridging in like this is going to be a strong possibility, the ECM just made a pigs ear of it. Transient higher uppers may well occur if so.
  14. Looks like the energy is clearing quicker on this run, should be a good thing.