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    Weymouth, Dorset

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  1. Half way through another non delivering winter and as the mild spell approaches, it’s time to muster the energy to dredge up some optimism yet again! Could it be that us snow starved southern dwellers finally get our long overdue cold spell, as we progress through the month of February? It’s easy to start thinking it’s never going to happen, ever! based on the last 5 years alone but of course it doesn’t work like that. The Synoptics in general, whilst are hardly screaming HLB, are still not screaming blowtorch zonal either. So we’ve at least got a ticket for the raffle. MLB centred on the U.K towards month end looking the strong form horse right now. Could the timing be good for a change? Agreed 9 out of 10 loiter before sinking but... yes the MJO looks to be losing strength as it nears the strong trade winds but signs are of a reemergence of greater amplitude out into the Pacific, into phases 7/8. Factor in the lag, hope for a decent atmospheric connect and I think week2 Feb would be the best and possibly final shot to get something half decent heading here from the E \ NE.
  2. Agreed. There appears to be an underlining trend for MLB to end up being positioned around our locale. I’d be happy to take that and see if we can then get sufficient amplification to retrogress it further north. Whilst forecasts and historical events of massive northward bound WAA surges and subsequently high pressures cells retrogressing from the Azores or Central Europe straight into strong HLB are great, it really doesn’t occur very often at all. Much more common is a stepped movement to high level blocking via MLB. Of course (and unfortunately), more common still is that MLB ends up being the most Northerly extent of the blocking!
  3. Suddenly this doesn't look so bad... I just clicked the Southern Hemisphere by accident and was presented with this... ! It took me a few seconds to cotton on
  4. Nope. They are way more accurate, mainly due to the topographical aspects it doesn't have to deal with.
  5. Brilliant post Tamara as always. Presumably the cat is the Nina and the mouse is the MJO... Looking at the strength of those forecast trade winds, it does appear the eastwards heading PPN is never going to make it to the Pacific. Even taking into account that the Maritime area is often poorly modeled. You posted this recently, I can't find it anywhere, do you have the link for it?
  6. Beyond this current cold zonality spell, I would agree with the more negative posts of this morning, absolutely no chance of cold until into Feb at least. If (and only IF) you base your views solely on the day-to-day, run-to-run operationals...
  7. Definitely this Thursday. Definitely windy down here. 20mph average is still a fair old wind mind you but I suspect on the day it will be nearer 35 - 40, gusting 60+. Potential for more than that, but the track is still not known. And won’t be until a day or so, even hours before. These systems running along the base are a forecasters nightmare and can be extremely vicious with high winds away from the northern side. Particularly if it produces a sting jet, which is distinctly possible as it develops and creates back edge cooling. Bear in mind that by the same token, it’s as likely to be no more than a very breezy day.
  8. Yep. My reinforced block comment alludes to the anticipated Russian WAA surge (maybe further west yet).
  9. Really?? You honestly think we are miles away from it? I certainly don’t. I think we are close at pulling in a proper Easterly within 10-14 days, much much closer than the majority of op outputs will have us believe. The ingredients are clearly there in the outputs. OK, I’d put decent money on you being right with regards to us ending up disappointed but - not because of the lack of potential. Now you can dislike the word ‘potential’ as much as you like, but without it in the first place, a proper Easterly is never going to occur anyway. They simply don’t pop up out of nowhere if the Synoptics are not conducive. And this is not standard zonal mush, with an all conquering polar vortex. We have Arctic heights meandering around and the block to the NE going nowhere fast, waiting to be reinforced, which it will be. Upstream forcing will then dictate where we move to. This is still very much game on as we head towards the end of the month..
  10. Regards the midweek storm... The expected shift south in the models occurred today. I wonder if maybe we’ve seen the final position come into focus a bit. Still subject to further shifts (south or north) but the 18z mean was fractionally north of the 12z after sliding south all day. The current modelling of the runner looks about right now to my mind (probably end up being somewhere completely different) 00z mean 06z mean 12z mean 18z mean
  11. Big time it can send the models into a spin. Had a phone call last night from the mother in law, who spends 7 odd months a year in Mauritius (a win win situation). Port Louis is on full alert for a direct hit. They are hoping it will be a near miss but it could be a big one should it hit (it is relatively rare for Mauritius). When I checked yesterday it was strengthening over the very warm IO waters.
  12. GEFS still throwing out a few runs of interest this morning, perfectly plausible in their evolution as well, so not to be discounted completely. I think most on here would take P1 ? 😃. As always, not saying anything like this will occur but it shows it wouldn’t take too much of a tweak to the synoptics to draw in some seriously cold air building to our NE. Look for signs of vertical WAA through the UK and interaction with the Arctic high. Long shot but one day...! (Nice shark shape on pic 5 as well 🦈)
  13. After somber Sunday, let’s hope tomorrow becomes manic Monday! OK hardly looking brilliant and the pig has gone through a box of Max Factor, but there have been enough GEFS Ens in the past two suites to keep a flicker of hope alive on this one. This is not set in stone. Yet. This midweek storm is still subject to a dramatic shift in both track and intensity. It happens time and time again with these base runners. If the models have over estimated its engagement with the jet streak, just watch it track way south and take the strongest winds down as far as northern France. This is what we want. I’m not bothered about it in regards to the accompanying transient mild sector, more the potential tipping point that it may provide to heading ‘left at the junction’ instead of right. With no real assistance from upstream amplification next week we need the dominoes to fall right fo us and a strong Northerly tracking storm would appear to miss the next domino when it topples.
  14. Well we’ve all been here before, familiar territory. There is still time for the charts to flip but it doesn’t look likely. Im not referring to the track of the mid week storm, that will always be a last minute thing. Unlike a longwave trough, ‘base runners’ like this are notoriously difficult to predict. They can remain more of a wave or ‘bomb’ , depending on the timing of its interaction with the jet stream. Subsequently forecasts of their strength and track can and will vary wildly beforehand. My concern is thereafter. I look upstream and don’t see a lot of help to drops heights below us and get the amplification we need to develop this into a decent cold spell. I have to be honest, I had great hopes that we were gradually heading towards a big cold spell going towards the end of January and into early Feb, my confidence is wavering a tad this morning! Let’s just hope the models haven’t sniffed out the right signal(s) here.
  15. Crackingly interesting charts on the horizon for next week. Too much focus as usual on the uppers though. Those thicknesses are the real eye openers. The snow could end up only being half of the story as well. There is likely going to be some interesting embedded features as the week wears on. Squalls, large hail, CGs. Not sure about a polar low cropping up though, too much of a PM element as opposed to Arctic.