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s4lancia last won the day on December 24 2018

s4lancia had the most liked content!

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    Weymouth, Dorset

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  1. Where on earth do we go from here? The westerlies at the bottom have turned Easterly. We virtually have Easterlies right through from top to bottom. This normally only occurs for a short period of time as the westerlies at the bottom finally dissipate and before a new westerly burst starts downwelling through 10hpa. Even then, many cycles don’t even produce this outcome, as in, the westerlies nearer the bottom don’t reverse in time before a new clear westerly burst appears at the top. So it’s not the fact we have (in all likelihood) a very short period of time of a near total Easterly that is unusual, it’s the circumstances that have led to it that is unprecedented in recorded times. This does appear to be another disruption event, albeit quite different to the last one a few years back. This picture below shows very graphically how weak the Easterlies have been and that, on the face of it, that we are heading quickly away from our weak E-QBO and back towards a new W-QBO. That said, there probably is still time for the Easterly regime to somewhat double back, intensify and re-establish? And I wonder if we are indeed seeing just that. Easterly winds higher up have increased somewhat and that strong anomalous well-defined Easterly wind at 40hpa looks to be backing off I’d say, so maybe there’s some hope yet. Interesting to see what happens next, I wouldn’t want to have to call it, that’s for sure.
  2. Clearly GFS/GEFS responding to its forecast (juries very much still out on that) of enhanced Pacific activity but tentative signs of interest late month into March in recent runs. Amplification and a super strong vortex in its seasonal weakening state can be spectacular. I’m off to the Indian Ocean for a couple of weeks tomorrow, the primary driver of our ghastly winter and Australia’s awful fires. Fingers crossed I come back to total thermal shock ?
  3. I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast... Incredible, even if probably very unlikely. It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?
  4. Hmmm, very decent update this morning. Come on GEFS, don’t let us down this time...
  5. I must admit I haven't bothered looking for a few days but this is quite the change. Obviously not withstanding the massive failing of GEFS back in December in this respect, hopefully it is more on the ball this time around? We shall see. If so back end of Feb / early March may be our best bet for something a bit more wintery
  6. Our monster high looks to have broken the England Wales January record, set in 1882. Guess how the remainder of that winter end up? The high retrogressed and we had two months of lying snow Actually, no, it was awful. Southerlies prevailed and that was it for that particular winter. Even back then, when apparently it was wall to wall snow, year in year out... ? Anyway, hopefully the 2nd half of this winter won’t end up quite as bad as that one 138 years ago!
  7. 18z suite. Op, Control and 14 out of 20 GEFS members hit -8 850s or lower on the south coast. Consistency required but as I mentioned earlier this looks very feasible.
  8. GEFS look decent. For a laugh, how about this one... ?
  9. Far too early yet of course but what is interesting here is that some Ops and Controls are starting to get excited, not just a few random GEFS members. Definitely time to sit up and take notice folks, as this is actually a very feasible outcome (note... ‘feasible’ though, not necessarily ‘likely’ ?) Should something close to this transpire, there would be some very unstable airmass around.
  10. Now, after December GEFS debacle, this obviously to be taken as a pinch of salt. But let's see if this time we are on the downward slope to a reasonably sustained period of weak westerlies. Probably too early to be even thinking about reversals though.
  11. Little sign of MJO influences on this specific run but this is often the case. Pacific forcing doesn’t always engage with the atmospheric flow and often becomes mere noise as it’s overridden by stronger influences. Juries still out on this one, it could easily yet still turn in our favour as we head through the final third of the month into Feb. Early days yet, with up to a two week lag and it is at a very decent amplitude so we should remain optimistic at least.
  12. I think we need to look no further than a MLB (currently in the process of getting nicely firmed up) and take things from there. Yes it is difficult to look beyond the northern arm of the jet dominating at the moment but give it a couple of weeks or so it could relent, if so I'd say we are then in a fairly prime position for some very favourable retrogression Nearer to present day, the trend has been our friend recently to inject a bit of mid-term seasonality in regards to the upper air temps. These from last night to today's 12z (for my balmy location)
  13. GEFS not relenting. This is a pattern changer, for good or bad ( let’s face it, it’s unlikely to be worse!) Greenland ridge very plausible, possibly even very likely. Interesting last third firming up...
  14. Beat me to it. Yep, ECM has moved to GFS / GEFS from where it was yesterday. Assuming convection survives through the Asia Maritimes (never a given), things could get very interesting down the line.
  15. Is this updated daily? Have you got a link for this please...
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