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s4lancia

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s4lancia last won the day on December 24 2018

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    Weymouth, Dorset

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  1. Had to zoom off to work and back to pick something up, North of Dorchester. Great seeing the sky on the way back to the coast. Saw a couple of bright flashes and a big CG out to sea. Looks good. Big drops of rain just starting to fall
  2. Rarely am I pulled out of my aestivation to come on here in the summer but I have to say it looks quite ripe down here for some decent cracks later on The sky has cleared very nicely indeed and has a pretty convective look and feel about it.
  3. The radar has had ppn over me for the past 3 and a half hours. Not a thing has fallen from the sky in that time
  4. So far for the SW, the ppn intensity has held up much more (and fizzled out less) than was forecast. The radar has it currently heading over me, I await to see what, if anything, falls from the sky. Often the longer the gap between the radar showing and the ppn hitting, the more chance of snow. Especially with the current conditions, not only does snow to the ground fall more slowly than rain but we have an undercutting strong south easterly wind against a front swinging up from the south west
  5. A warm up is happening, maybe turning very mild into next weekend. I could certainly see the ECM being somewhere near right. I’d love to be wrong but I struggle to see a model turnaround in that respect occurring now. Yes, bring on summer etc etc, more than any other year. Yes, I can’t wait either but... i will have to as it’s still only mid Feb and I intend to see out the winter weather chasing season for a few more weeks as I always do by, well, chasing winter weather! I don’t believe winter has finished with us and will be looking at the end of the month into March as surely the next window of opportunity. I am torn though. There seem to be equally good arguments for continuation of a more default westerly influence (perhaps more settled than zonal in the south though) into Meteorological Spring and for a return to a colder spell. The strat influence has probably got a bit left in the tank yet even as the SPV revs up, combine that with the Pacific activity we’ve seen right through February and a late potent winter blast can’t be ruled out. A 2018 beast seems a massive stretch up against the background signals but maybe something like an MLB that gains enough northerly traction month end to bring easterlies back to the southern half of the UK into March has to be a genuine possibility.
  6. Exactly how I’m reading it BB. If the timings slightly off or some amplitude has been under-estimated, it could be enough to make a difference here.
  7. Form horse surely now a bit of a warm up as we get to mid month. However, the 12Zs GEFS were interesting. Asides for P20 flying the cold flag, there were a few others very close to the tipping point. Probably grasping at straws but there’s still time for this to turn around yet. 18z GEFS will be of interest, as every new run is when it gets new initialisation data, but the 00Z suite will probably say give us a better indication as to whether or not there remains (at least) an outside chance of a dramatic turnaround .
  8. No snow here (a bit floating around, not really sure that counts). However, the set up and wind direction has not thus far been conducive to it down here. Increased opportunities for a smattering though, as the wind should drop most of its northerly element later very shortly and becomes closer to a true easterly.
  9. North easterlies are usually a waste of time here, Too far west to pick up streamers, unless we are into March where the warmer land can aid convection. Even then, very rare to get much more than leftovers and a smattering, even off a fairly active front. I’m waiting for the wind to start swinging more easterly, then south easterly later Monday into Tuesday, this should drag a bit of wintery convection into town. Hopefully
  10. As @Uncertainy mentions above, much credit should probably be given to the ongoing Pacific forcing, shown by the MJO plot. Assuming the likes of ENSO is playing ball and we are getting a ‘connect’, and it looks like we are. All too often we are willing it on to hit record breaking amplitudes in P6/7/8 (Feb’18 hit an incredible SD of nigh on 4 if I remember correctly). But as extreme as the consequences could end up being, it also appears to increase the easterly pace of the convection wave? What we have now is the MJO, still at a very decent amplitude, but stalling (and I am only postulating here) I would naturally assume that this is something that is far more conducive to longevity in terms of a potential cold spell for us, again, under the right coupling circumstances. Thinking back to that very early March’18 cold spell, as ridiculously extreme as it was (for any time of the year, let alone March!), it was scuppered much earlier than had been expected, by the block being pulled too far NW at an eye popping speed. I’m sure this could be traced back to what the MJO was showing.
  11. I’ve refrained from getting too excited about this, but it’s been showing for a few days now and is still very much there. It certainly has all the ingredients to get us in the snow-starved tropical south coast in on the action . I’ll probably hold off a little longer, I’m still smarting from that massive dumping in March’13 which was transferred to the Channel Islands at the last minute! (whisper it quietly though, it’s looking pretty good )
  12. This is starting to look like the real deal. An evolving Scandi High was looking like more of a possibility in the past day or so, as more and more runs started holding back the monster low. I was posting as much last night and clearly fell asleep mid type (the excitement must’ve just got too much! ). Clearly an appetite for round#2 is staring us in the face now. A ‘warm up’ from the end of next week now looks strong odds on but every chance there will be nothing ‘warm’ about it! Still far from set in stone yet, but a trend could emerging to remain cold with light winds and dry. That would do very nicely indeed should it happen, as we await another potential attack from the East! A snowier version of February’86 anyone?
  13. Putting aside the fantastic cold spell on our doorstep, what happens to that end of week low (and the consequences of) is, hands down, one of the best model watching periods I can remember. Fascinating stuff.
  14. I wish I had the time to properly go through the GEFS at around D7/8. Some really intriguing evolutions emerging ref that low. This has a long way left to run and I’m getting the distinct impression any warm up, should it even arrive, will be relatively short lived before we’re looking east again?
  15. I felt that over the last couple of days we’d seen a subtle but undoubted move away from a more UK widespread very cold and snowy spell. I didn’t post my thoughts as I’m always the first to moan about people saying tomorrow’s runs are a absolutely crucial! But... I do think that we were fast running out of time for that trend to reverse. Thankfully it has, and it has done it in some style!! Certainly still marginal at times down here, but that sort of goes with the territory living here, but I’d be more than happy to take my chances on any of the main runs this morning. Come the time it won’t look like that of course, but there should be all manner of nice surprises tucked away in those yet to form isobar kinks no doubt The Northern Hemisphere set up is other worldly right now, even if we don’t all get what we want, we can at least all marvel at that!
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