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s4lancia

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s4lancia last won the day on February 11

s4lancia had the most liked content!

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    Weymouth, Dorset

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  1. No time to look at anything for longer than 10;minutes this evening. Quick rush through the runs and UKMO 144... Where did that come from!? Complete change with that unexpected ridge, Doesn’t look like it has any support but let’s see in the next 24 hours if it can muster some.
  2. I'm not a betting man, but you're right, Leeds Airport very good value.
  3. Post circa Saturday, the Atlantic getting through and an unsettled period has been on the cards for quite a while now and the 00z suite does nothing to dispel that. Some differences around the D7 period reference the jet behaviour in the mid Atlantic, but even then no real appetite to bring anything of any note to us through next week. Thereafter is where the real interest lies. And some! Absolutely fascinating viewing at the moment!
  4. Going down... Bottom floor... It's getting there hopefully. With one slightly bonkers member going for -20 m/s. In December!
  5. Ever the optimist I may be, but I think we are down to 15%? for a notable snow 'event' for the masses, as a result of trough disruption passing under the NE block. Catacol's description of the block being 'an echo' is a really good one when looking at the current lack of background forcing. I just don't see enough to convince me the jet is going to play ball. Not for a little while longer anyway. However... A Christmas Northerly though? Yep. Makes complete and utter sense to me now. This signal will grow stronger and stronger IMO. I expect to see some sharp dips towards the end of some of the GEFS members in the coming days and week. Remember Winter 1963 (no direct comparisons intended) didn't get going until Boxing Day 1962...
  6. Just for fun, nitpicking I know. Comparing the strat plot from a few days ago with the latest one... GEFS strat charts have relaxed a bit over the past few days. Still showing a lovely big drop in U winds, just not quite as much as at the start of the week. Not one member spotted that minor spike on the 10th / 11th though (only 6 days away at the time). However, I reckon we will see more and more members drop back under 0 m/s at the end of the graph in the coming 7 - 10 days. And stay there. Got to think we must be 60% for a SSW out of this.
  7. Another nudge west from the 06z. At this rate we will soon be bemoaning Brittany and the Channel Isles getting a massive dumping, whilst we stay bone dry! Only jesting,I don't see further corrections quite to that extent with this set up
  8. I wouldn't see a Euro height rise as a particular concern. Clearly the pattern (which is extremely easy on the eye) advertised by the EC, could lead to a period of this, but only likely to be transient IMO. A very fluid looking atmosphere. Nice to see ridging appearing closer to the ESB than Mid Atlantic at that stage, as I think the Pacific / NH profile will more likely shunt that eastwards Mid Atlantic and towards us than keep there or draw back west. Albeit I don't yet see any huge north bound WAA bursts for at least a couple of weeks+ EC +168 is a great chart, imagine if we start getting upgrades on this?! I am of course looking at this from a general viewpoint, I am not anticipating anything for my location from this. Not impossible but the upgrades need to keep occuring for a while longer for that to happen! And I currently don't see it leading to anything too meaningful for the short period thereafter (in the D9 - D12 ish range). Still time for this to change as well though. All this could well pale into insignificance though. It does seem that Xmas - NY is surely the real point of interest, with a incredibly potential filled January to follow on. I think we will soon see some wild FIs creep into the back end of the GEFS. More importantly, we are up to 7 exclamation marks on the Shaky'ometer this morning. Something's brewing!
  9. No bickering because it was a classic upgrade day and one or two notable absentees weren’t able to inflict their usual schadenfreude on the forum. Lurking I noticed though... They’ll be back as soon as things take a turn for the worse. Hopefully though, that won’t be for a while!
  10. The trend continues. GEFS toying more and more with trough disruption. First one I’ve see virtually clear the SW. Check out member 7. That would be ummm eventful...
  11. Comparing with 06/12 12z mean, it is a slight improvement. Clusters will show more obviously . A subtle 'blink and you'll miss it' new appetite for a very small height rise over central Greenland emerging from across the 12z suite as well at around D7 as energy separates better. This has probably helped steer the slight pattern improvement. May fill in by the 18z / 00z or may expand further, who knows!
  12. And the EC follows suit. Probably as good as we could've possible hoped for today from where we were 24 hours ago. Clearly, if the 'upgrades' stop here, it won't be quite enough. But another day or two of this and things are going to start to look very rosy indeed for many. Who is going to go and fetch BA back from the other thread?
  13. Yep, that is a really unusual evolution. A sure sign that the model has absolutely no idea what to do next. Which clearly means, neither should we!
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