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    Weymouth, Dorset

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  1. The general scientific concensus was that anomaly was predominately down to the preceding strong El Nino event. So unlikely to follow suit.this time around. Safe to say though, that if the QBO does 'reverse' again this summer, that will certainly eliminate that theory!
  2. I hope the stuff about ‘shattered’ vortexes not reforming after a strong early to mid-season warming can be put to bed after this winter. Far too simplistic a viewpoint. Most of us were suckered in to a degree but, looking back, with little follow on activity in the strat, in fact a nosedive cooling, plus a downwelling W-QBO, I suppose it ought to come as little surprise really. Can’t rule out a late cold blast but I say that only on the basis that it is still (albeit late) February and there is still time. As opposed to anything that is in the charts that gives me any indication or optimism whatsoever. Hey ho, we had a very good snow event for my location in late January (that’s 2 winters in a row now, very rare) so I suppose I would’ve taken that if offered at the outset.
  3. I agree that the NAO is a source of great annoyance when it comes to our weather and getting prolonged cold. But having lots of +NAO winters/months is absolutely nothing new. There have been plenty of times where we have had solidly +NAO periods. The most recent of course was the late 80s and through the 90's. Going back much further, there was a run of 12 consecutive +NAO winters (Dec - March) at the turn of the century. A further run of 9 out of 11 winters just after the first world war returned +NAO. Many of these were very strongly +NAO winters as well. Now, we may or may not be in the midst of another protracted run (still a way to go before we can start comparing with those periods though). Personally I doubt it though, we are in a solar min, so I would expect there to be at least as many -NAO winters as +NAO over the next few years. But quite frankly, whos knows at this stage. And it is worth remembering as well, that the NAO of course is not a driver in its own right. Merely a reflection of anomalous pressures in the North Atlantic, simply returned in SD form.
  4. Some decent objective discussion going on but also a lot of total tosh. It’s the NW hunt for cold model thread, I’ve gotten used to it by now but still... Anyway, for my sins, I am of the firm belief February will produce later in in the month. The most confident I’ve been all winter in fact. IMO opinion the descending W-QBO has been, and is, working against us and stifled what probably would’ve been a memorable winter. Forget this poor op here, that poor op there, even the latest 12z suite, honestly, big flipping deal. It will change. Get better. Get worse. And get better again etc etc. Shock horror, newsflash, it’s WHY it’s called the rollercoaster There is no trend to end winter on a mild note. There is no trend towards raging zonality. Just genuine potential for a good cold spell towards the end of month. Laugh all you like about the dreaded ‘potential’ word but you won’t get a cold spell without it. Fact. Deal with it. Nick F posted the two most most pertinent charts earlier. Just because the SSW has been and gone does not mean there is no hope. The polar opposite in fact. The effects are still likely to be very much present in the weeks to come. A big improvement showing here from the last one I saw. OK so the MJO hasnt been of much help so far with regards atmospheric coupling but when and if (and it is, clearly, a very BIG if) you get amplification in early-mid February in P7/8 like the GEFS is showing, expect that to be the overriding force by the last part of Feb. Obviously, yes, it needs to verify and the ECM (whilst still going into 7 and 8 ) is less enthusiastic... But... it did nail the Feb 2018 monster amplification over the ECM. Smashed it actually. And we all know what that helped lead to. So let’s just see what transpires. And even (a probably more likely) watered down version, could still pay dividends. The vortex is naturally gradually on the wane at this time of year, even with the WQBO no doubt helping to ‘fuel’ it. But often things end well when there seems, which there does to my mind, to be almost an equal chance of an initial Scandi high 33.33% over an initial Mid Atlantic/GL High 33.33% (with the other 33.34% being something else a little less pleasing! )
  5. Very decent prospects indeed for later in the month. Clearly the potential for an eventual west based -NAO but I would suggest we get the -NAO in place first, before we start fretting about that!
  6. Difficult to see next weekend's Atlantic ridging attempt not being flattened. Nothing looks likely to be getting underneath any ridiging for the next 10 days. A couple of coldish transient days but predominately Atlantic weather. After that though, maybe the Control shows the way forward... ?
  7. I don’t remember the MJO forecasts struggling as much in the Pacific sector as they have this year. All model forecasts constantly at odds with each other, if not in direction of travel, then definitely in intensity. GEFS ECM JMA Same back in early January as well.
  8. Not concerned whatsoever. Short 'faux-zonal' spell next week fairly nailed on. Thereafter D6+ still up from grabs. It really wouldn't take much to head down an enirely different path and very quickly we have an evolving easterly. And if this really is it for winter 18/19 (personally, I very much doubt it). after this week, I will leave it as happy as I was after Winter 17/18!
  9. Scraped a level 5-6cm off the car roof this morning. Less than 2 miles inland. The majority of winters do not produce that much down here. Any more will just be an unexpected bonus!
  10. There does seem to be issues with the radar but I’ve noticed before that there does seem to be much more of a lag with snow compared with rain. Hence giving the impression of predicting the snow! Perhaps, when you consider the time snow takes to fall in comparison to rain,then throw in the wind and maybe there could be something in it...
  11. Radar showing a sudden and marked increase in intensity in a line SE’wards from Shepton Mallet down to Bournemouth on the coast. Still snowing here. Small flakes but coming down well.
  12. Very Intriguing to see what is going to occur with the approaching PPN to the SW.
  13. Eased right off here. Genuinely, if that’s it for the winter for Weymouth, I’ll finish winter 18/19 a happy chappy. We can go many winters in a row without close to that much. Get the feeling though, it’s not over yet...
  14. Blimey. Just taken a nice long soak in the bath, expected to come out to see the same sleety mix and it’s heavy snow and settling out there. Splendid.
  15. Hopefully the loud pitter patter on the velux window will stop at some point in the the couple of hours. No point checking lamppost whilst that noise is present!
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