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s4lancia

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s4lancia last won the day on December 24 2018

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  1. As I’ve been posting, the real window of opportunity remains, and always has been, at the end of next week. The Azores High far enough west and Arctic profile very respectable on the UKMO +144 to make me think all still to play for.
  2. The Southerly meandering jet propensity continues. No surprise whatsoever with the current output. EP ridge has been gaining traction in recent days and is more than just a bit part player. Clearly the UKMO not as good as the others but I agree with BFTP, not necessarily a killer to the potential fun and games around mid month. I think this could be a great start to the skiing season for parts of the Alps...
  3. The time period around the12th remains of great interest to me and has for a while. What comes before is unlikely to produce anything of any great significance. It's that strong dig south of the jet that has been showing (on and off and to different degrees obviously) for quite a few days now. Great consistency and IMO no smoke without fire where this sort of thing is concerned. A lot of energy could be pulled south and cause just anything to occur over the UK (think storms, snow, rain). I wonder if the guys at the portal that @carinthian speaks to are monitoring this one? I don't see where any great WAA ridging into GL is going to come from right now but I suspect a wedge will come into play. ECM will be coming into range over the next day or so. Will be interesting if the EC Op does go with it as well. Watch this space. All to play for folks...
  4. Good post Mike, summed up very well. I don’t think ECM is bad and pretty much par for the course as I still reckon the real interest is just out of its range. So like you say, we will indeed see
  5. Here you go. I actually think that the Europe maps gives the best viewpoint of it as well. I genuinely don’t think you will find many better examples of an Arctic High giving us a cold spell... Sure the ridging AH played its part, but that Arctic High was the star of the show.
  6. Spin it how you want, it WAS an Arctic High that was mainly responsible for that event. Without it we simply wouldn’t have got the extreme event that we did. No ifs no buts...
  7. Honestly, the conceited point scoring on here verges on being almost ‘Trumpesque’ at times. For the record, I’m happy to admit I get it wrong loads of times! Anyway, IMO, the period around the 12th has been flagging itself up for quite a while now as of great interest and the signal, whilst still far enough away to be fairly muted, remains as strong as ever. Easily missed if we are only obsessing over the 850s from run to run. But a strong jet dive into southern west EU is likely to open the door to a myriad of weather options on the ground here in the U.K (good and bad). I think also the Alps resorts will likely be keeping one eye on this. Plenty of time for this to change of course but winter starts as Autumn was, no long-term stagnating Bartlett/ Euro high in situ or sight, continued propensity for the Azores High to pull back west with the jet default seemingly more southerly than northerly tracking. Low solar surely influencing this.
  8. Best yet? I think there has to remain a suspicion that the recent record breaking wave1 event may be confusing the forecast. Either way, after the forthcoming uptick to zonal winds, a drop back down again looks fairly assured. It’s to what degree that is far from established.
  9. Not true I’m afraid. Whilst it is rare, it does happen. Go and have a look at the Jan’87 cold spell. When it does get involved on our side of the hemisphere, things often happen.
  10. I’m very much liking the latest update. Much more agreement... As you’d expect, even prettier at 65N We’ve been here before but things seem set better this time for it to occur. Whether ‘it’ becomes a full blown SSW, that’s yet to be seen of course.
  11. If you look really really closely you may just be able to spot one very very small outlier... ? Or maybe trendsetter...? OK, that's a push but somewhere inbetween would of course be more than acceptable
  12. I don't make a habit of posting single Op charts from far away la la land, but I'm going to make an exception today.Happy election day!... This is stunning, and more importantly synoptically plausible IMO. That doesn't mean I think it will necessarily transpire though, there's still a way to go yet.
  13. Good to see GEFS back to hints of an SSW again. Like @Mike Poole says, hopefully GFS comes on board soon as well. Does anybody know why the Amy Butler graph is no longer updating with GEFS forecast? (it stopped about a week ago) Edit: Sorry, brain fade moment, meant Hannah Attard!
  14. Wave #2 action pepping up as we head through Dec? Also, I've definately seen worse U wind forecast profiles...
  15. This morning’s chart output look decent enough to me. Definitely ALL to play for as we near the start of winter proper. Potential wedge set up can’t be dismissed for about a week’s time. Certainly no raging classic zonal dross around the next corner. I suspect high pressure will eventually settle over but what to follow?
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