I'd agree with that, their warning talks of break down and the latest fax does seem to show less undercut and more head on, so perhaps the ECM or even the GFS view is more favoured?
Even so, it will come down to forecasting much nearer the time and we will then see whether the cold holds on in the East and North - certainly the latest 6-15 seems to support cold being close to these areas, with the W and SW seeing rain mainly away from the hills