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Snowly does it

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Everything posted by Snowly does it

  1. Snowly does it
    Interesting pattern in the low res, heights building where we want them....
  2. Snowly does it
    GFS uses one of its insane low pressures to blast through at T162. Cold for the foreseeable, Atlantic back, sometime, but when?
  3. Snowly does it
    Atlantic still struggling, just about in by t150 but cold not far away with -10s in the North Sea, wouldn't take much of a shift to stay very cold. As it is maxima still in very low digits by Friday
  4. Snowly does it
    Maybe sliding underneath at T132? Cold less intense but clinging on
  5. Snowly does it
    06z has the colder uppers mixed out by early in the week, but it remains cold with -5 850s coming and going through to T120 where we have surprise surprise, a press coming from the Atlantic by (say) T144
  6. Snowly does it
    GFS certainly seems to be playing the 'how do I normalise weather 6 days out?' game Maybe with record breaking entropy and SSW action, you don't! This whole T150 breakdown every time is a case of a stopped clock being right once every 12 hours......
  7. Snowly does it
    True enough, Norfolk certainly as a few cm already in place. Cold air back in Tues/Weds with -10s knocking on EA door
  8. Snowly does it
    Monday looks marginal for the s, SE and EA unless some colder dew points are in play....
  9. Snowly does it
    I may be being a bit simple, but isn't it rather marginal by Sunday for those in the South and SE and EA? 850s are at -3 or -4, and whilst the dew points will be low, could there not be a wintry mix? Or is snow under those circs more likely?
  10. Snowly does it
    -5 850s are retreating north at t96, from the Wash across - presumably still cold enough in a continental flow for those south if the line??
  11. Snowly does it
    I'd agree with that, their warning talks of break down and the latest fax does seem to show less undercut and more head on, so perhaps the ECM or even the GFS view is more favoured? Even so, it will come down to forecasting much nearer the time and we will then see whether the cold holds on in the East and North - certainly the latest 6-15 seems to support cold being close to these areas, with the W and SW seeing rain mainly away from the hills
  12. Snowly does it
    Yep, that is what we have thus far
  13. Snowly does it
    06z has the cold air further east by T66 with only EA and parts of the south and midlands in under -5 air, however lets see what sort of fight back it mounts from here
  14. Snowly does it
    Lol GFS low res goes for one of its snowy westerlies fun runs
  15. Snowly does it
    Atlantic breaking through at t120, but it takes a GFS superstorm to do it, and everything is shifting south run by run....
  16. Snowly does it
    Cold air fighting back westwards at t84
  17. Snowly does it
    It's moving on wetter. Out to 66 and cold air pushed a little more east, but HP stronger slightly
  18. Snowly does it
    Wow, I thought the Atlantic was coming in by T174, but it's still sliding under the cold air embedded!
  19. Snowly does it
    Ooooh, shortwave shocker at t162 sinks the block. Could get messy from here, but we are talking 7 days away!
  20. Snowly does it
    Billy Goat Gruff sends his regards. You can clearly see the advantage of split vortex, even on a powerful streak, nothing really bothering the modest block ridged over from Scandi. The real issue now is pinning down how much, how white and where. More a now casting job!
  21. Snowly does it
    Minus 10s dragged into EA by Friday. Another great medium term run for cold from the GFS
  22. Snowly does it
    T132 and it's Atlantic knocking on the door but the cold for the moment hanging on Be interesting to see if this can tuck under?
  23. Snowly does it
    Cold air hanging on in the east by T120 with LP lobe heading under, the cold to build back in behind it? Very knife edge development from the GFS again but by T96 it's so different that we might as well now cast!
  24. Snowly does it
    Day 8 is T192, given the short term confusion, it's way too at out to worry about. That's next Friday! Until the track of e shortwave is nailed, the rest is hokum
  25. Snowly does it
    UKMO 120 is great for snow. I think if it then is followed by a undercut its good for the following frames too?
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