mackerel sky
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Posts posted by mackerel sky
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It isn't unreasonable to look at upstream developments coming out of the northeastern seaboard of the US and how that may or may not affect us. I am bored of this. There is no accountability because no one seems interested anymore on a local level in the model thread. All about point scoring with the next fad.
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What has become of the model thread eh? It's all about fancy things like the MJO and talking about three weeks ahead which never verifies. Complex speak for the sake of it. This is why I get upset. Let's try to get the forecast correct in a 5 day period before moving onto your MJO business. It's like polar wandering. Fancy tools.
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Who is this chief forecaster at the Met Office giving his assessments? Not to poo-poo that but lots of people on here could do a better job. The Chief forecaster is often wrong as probably goes home for his tea and nice sleep.
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2 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:
Thank youuu
Yes it is my birthday tomorrow. 28, getting old
i'm going down to Watford for it to watch Leicester play. Hope we win! Yeah I have seen snow in April before up in Leicester. We are due a big snow event again in the Midlands! Maybe next Winter 28 - lucky you! I just turned 40!!
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We had a snow flurry about 4pm. Cold out there now -0.8C. If any makes it here overnight or early morning it will be of the white variety.
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I need to be better educated in the MJO signals as a valid forecasting tool. I read all the hype and they still confuse and disappoint for 'upstream signals' etc. seems like a total fad to me. I can't think of one situation this winter these 'signals' have been a useful short or even long term forecasting tool over conventional means. Seems like the meteorological equivalent of reading tea leaves if you ask me. I think I've got my head round it but prefer to stick to the various traditional model outputs based on probability and members than that. I have found interpretation baffling and of limited use.
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I'm in North Wales travelling back home to a East Northants tomorrow so watching the total lack of developments further south and east. The snow line in Snowdonia is 700 metres. Tal yr fan, the nearest summit at 670 metres has a mere dusting no more improved from yesterday.
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I joined this forum many years ago, I think in 2003 as member 500 or so - I have never seen such a poor verification of models. Getting worse not better.
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Looking dry here for the next 5-6 days I would think. Not much to get excited about.
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1 hour ago, Trom said:
I know it's small consolation but I have to visit Wisconsin regularly in Winter (my head office is there) and it often gets down to these kind of crazy temperatures. It's actually not much fun as you can't spend any significant time outside. It is cool that the Mississippi freezes in the town where I visit (you can drive out cut a hole and go ice fishing). But in pretty much writes off outdoors as a place to be. The weather for frolicking and building snowmen it is not.
Still the models show the strat dominating the trop forcings. Some signs of change going forward but nothing that indicates persistent cold at the moment. As a few posters have mentioned the synoptics actually look good at face value until you realise there's no cold near by to tap into.
I was in Calgary this time last year - arrived in -17c then two days later it got upto +13c, before plunging back down to -12c. In fact experienced a 20c drop in the space of 8 hours. But the snowfall there is pointless. It rarely accumulates to any depth, and -17c feels nothing like it would it the UK. The rain shadow kills off the chance of any decent snowfall generally. You would expect snow to settle at those low temperatures but it doesn't.
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I was in Oslo all week and although the 850s were -10c midweek it was still +2-3c by day only falling to -2c by night. Minimal amounts of snow, some bits in the suburbs. Even out at the airport dregs of a couple of inches. No surface cold to tap into from anywhere. Time to give up I think.
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Pretty good snow tonight here in East Northants! If we get some more overnight then it will be enough for a decent snowman.
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Surprised at reports of no snow in Northampton. It's been coming down pretty heavy here. A good 3cm on the grass, only a 1cm on the roads.
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Just over the border from this regional thread into Northamptonshire we've got the best snow all night so far. Sticking to pretty much everything now.
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Snowing nicely here now. Sticking to most surfaces.
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Light snow on and off here - more drizzle in the lighter spells. It is settling a little bit, even on the paths.
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Bit of sleet/wet snow starting to fall here. A bit surprising given an hour ago there was a good air frost starting up. Car was all iced up.
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Provided there is some precipitation then we have quite favourable conditions here. Down to 0.3C at present with a dew point of -1C.
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Don't often post nowadays, little time. Obviously given up on a decent undercut to tap into the current cold developing nearby in Norway. And whilst we have dumb bells of low Pressure nearby a waste of time. Though I am becoming intrested in signals a bit further out, FI is starting to look not too daft.That said I was seriously considering cutting the grass. It hasn't stopped growing.
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Only 17° at 12:09? Lol. This is the UK, not Florida. That's a pretty warm night time temperature for the UK.
Storms abated here for now. Nice lightening display. The odd boom of thunder and some convective rain. That's it for the South East tonight I think. Night all. Hope you get what you wish for.
Maybes but 48 hours ago it was 25C at midnight!!!
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It is only 17C outside! Nevertheless frequent distant flashes are lighting up the sky to our south now!
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Remember March two years ago? I couldn't have imagined that - ice days around the 25th and snow drifts outside of town that lasted until the end of April! For shock value I think we could see something wintry Sunday morning. I mentioned the potential about 10 days ago in the Midlands thread and people thought I must be high on something.
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It was mild over there. I think Ontario and Eastern Canada were recording record lows of -40C. I arrived at -20C and the cold was noticeable, but 36 hours later it was 13C, then mild briefly the next day before as mentioned dropped like a stone again. I think the literal translation of 'Chinook' is 'snow eater'. I went upto Bannf and it was a lot milder there than in Calgary. Anyway a nice place to visit and get paid!
i'm going down to Watford for it to watch Leicester play. Hope we win! Yeah I have seen snow in April before up in Leicester. We are due a big snow event again in the Midlands! Maybe next Winter 
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Can hear distant thunder from Bedford to the south. Very black over that way. After a heavy shower the sun is out and temperature has shot up to nearly 21C. I'm expecting it to go bang here within the next hour.